2804 Stutz Dr · Midland, TX 79705

$300,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,618 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 1968 10,367 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.3/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Classic Midland on a beautiful tree-lined street! This spacious 4 bed, 2.5 bath home w/ 2 living areas, 2 car garage, hardwood flooring, & quality Pella windows. The kitchen was updated previously with cabinets & solid surface counters. Primary suite w/ large bath, good closet space & tons of storage! Lovingly lived in by the same family for many years, this home is filled with warmth, charm & opportunity. Being sold as-is where-is this property is priced to present an exceptional opportunity!

Key facts

• Hardwood flooring
• Large bath
• Tree-lined street

Tags

• TREE-LINED STREET
• QUALITY PELLA WINDOWS
• HARDWOOD FLOORING
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• SOLID SURFACE COUNTERS
• LARGE BATH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick veneer exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.238-acre lot
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Lot in West Haven subdivision

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Gas water heater
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Built-in bookcases; Living room fireplace

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Emerson El (math 52% / reading 54%, grade C, #705 of 4,322 statewide, top 17%, 489 students, 51% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 51% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($105k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $300,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.73%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-28,815
• Equity at exit: $44,731

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-3,199
• Equity at exit: $25,939

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,055 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$384 /mo · $4,612/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$642
• Net cashflow: $331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,636

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $501	-5% $416	+0% $331	+5% $246	+10% $161
Rent	-10% $90	-5% $210	+0% $331	+5% $452	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $482	-0.5pp $407	base $331	+0.5pp $253	+1.0pp $174

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	4.0	3.5	2982	$3,650	$1.22	14d	1	0.31mi
3300 Durant Dr Midland, TX	3.0	3.5	2982	$4,400	$1.48	44d	1	0.31mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	14d	1	0.37mi
2900 Goddard Pl Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2570	$3,400	$1.32	21d	1	0.37mi
11 Marchelle Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2714	$3,200	$1.18	44d	1	0.41mi
2801 Exeter Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2394	$2,900	$1.21	44d	1	0.48mi
2404 Goddard Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1894	$3,100	$1.64	21d	1	0.50mi
2404 Northtown Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,700	$1.35	14d	1	0.53mi
3134 Tealwood Pl Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,500	$1.27	21d	1	0.56mi
3317 Providence Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1810	$2,500	$1.38	44d	1	0.58mi
3306 Haynes Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	3481	$3,800	$1.09	21d	1	0.58mi
3306 Haynes Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	3481	$3,950	$1.13	44d	1	0.58mi
2100 W Wadley Ave Unit L1 Midland, TX	3.0	3.0	1854	$2,300	$1.24	44d	1	0.75mi
3326 W Dengar Ave Midland, TX	4.0	3.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	21d	1	0.90mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	14d	1	0.94mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$2,800	$1.30	21d	1	0.94mi
4801 Whitman Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.5	2158	$3,000	$1.39	44d	1	0.94mi
3315 Godfrey St Midland, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–4.0	1764	$2,800	$1.59	14d	8	1.02mi
2606 Keswick Cv Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2027	$2,600	$1.28	14d	1	1.04mi
4027 Angelina Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2228	$2,900	$1.30	14d	1	1.16mi
3114 Shell Ave Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2260	$2,999	$1.33	21d	1	1.18mi
1800 Dukes Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2282	$3,000	$1.31	21d	1	1.23mi
4715 Bishops Castle Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1938	$2,900	$1.50	21d	1	1.33mi
1413 Ventura Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2400	$2,895	$1.21	44d	1	1.37mi
2204 Boyd Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2068	$3,000	$1.45	44d	1	1.40mi
4007 Crestridge Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	3737	$3,500	$0.94	21d	1	1.49mi
1902 N I St Midland, TX	3.0	2.5	2178	$2,400	$1.10	44d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $300,000 Pending 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active Under Contract 11 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active Under Contract 10 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $300,000 Active Under Contract 9 DOM
5. 2026-05-21
   listed $300,000 Active
6. 1981-06-29
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,612 · $384/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$878/yr (+$73/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,664
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,612
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,933
• − Management: −$2,933
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$846
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$203
• After-tax cash flow: $4,177/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Listed $300,000 PBBOR
• 1981-06-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,612 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.