16407 Timberline Trl · Stagecoach, TX 77355

$185,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2000 0.37 ac lot $103/sqft · 7% below area Est $200k · 7% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large cul-de-sac lot. This spacious 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers approximately 1,800 sq. ft. of comfortable living space on a generous 0.37-acre lot in Timberloch Estates. The open floor plan flows easily from the kitchen into the dining and living areas, creating a great space for everyday living and entertaining. The oversized bedrooms provide plenty of room to relax, while the primary suite features dual vanities, a separate tub and shower, and a large walk-through closet. Recent updates include new carpet, and the property also includes a storage shed for added convenience. HVAC 5 years old. Could be a fantastic investment property. Enjoy the peace of country living while still being c

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Open floor plan
• Dual vanities

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITIES
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association managed by Chaparral Management with an annual fee of $200

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; One- or two-story not specified; Built in 2000
• Construction: Cement siding; Composition roof; Built in 2000
• Exterior features: Cleared lot in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approx. 18 x 16); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each approx. 12 x 11)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $341 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $182k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 4.2% in Stagecoach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,010 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Magnolia West H S (math 41% / reading 53%, grade D-, #591 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 2,208 students, 52% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($182k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $182,225 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.90%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $199,900
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -5.45%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
31302 W Timberloch Trl	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,792 (-0%)	2mo	$219,900	$123	93
30935 Towering Oaks Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,052 (+14%)	2mo	$289,900	$141	68
31307 W Timberloch Trl	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-13%)	8mo	$195,000	$125	66
16218 Evergreen Timbers	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,568 (-13%)	6mo	$209,995	$134	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,267
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $20,756
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,987 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$165 /mo · $1,976/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $341

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,556

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 78%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24836 Sugar Pine Cone St Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,950	$1.30	17d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Pending 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Pending 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $185,000 Pending 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Pending 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Pending 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $185,000 Pending 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-04
   days on market $185,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $185,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $185,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    price $185,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $185,000 859-char remark
14. 2026-05-04
    listed $189,000 Active 859-char remark
15. 2026-04-03
    historical
16. 2026-03-07
    listed $179,900 Active
17. 2025-06-03
    historical
18. 2025-04-29
    price $195,000
19. 2025-04-04
    listed $199,999 Active
20. 2022-12-31
    historical
21. 2022-12-19
    price $189,900
22. 2022-12-08
    listed $194,900 Active
23. 2022-12-06
    historical
24. 2017-08-02
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2017-08-02
    soldstatus
26. 2017-07-16
    listed $85,000
27. 2017-07-16
    historical
28. 2000-03-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,976 · $165/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,410/yr (+$117/mo · 71.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,845
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,976
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,908
• − Management: −$1,908
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $1,180
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$283
• After-tax cash flow: $3,807/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stagecoach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1010
• US rank: #17937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+117.6% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-06-01 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $185,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $189,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-07 Listed $179,900 HARMLS
• 2025-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-04-29 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Listed $199,999 HARMLS
• 2022-12-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-12-19 Price Changed $189,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-08 Listed $194,900 HARMLS
• 2022-12-06 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2017-08-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-08-02 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2017-07-16 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2017-07-16 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2000-03-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,976 · -19.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.