10917 Brown Pelican Cir · Estero, FL 33928

$109,901

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 412 sqft · Manufactured public records · 223 Days on market

Built 1984 2,744 sqft lot $239/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Enjoy this quaint Florida Oasis! Low HOA fees, taxes, and you own the land! 1 bedroom/ 1 bath with 2 sofa sleepers manufactured home. Newer windows, newer siding, newer AC, newer roof, recently remodeled bathroom, wide driveway, premier lot, fully furnished. This is a very active community park where you own the land your home sits on. Amenities include Pickle Ball, Bocce ball, tennis and shuffle ball courts, a huge swimming pool and spa, a butterfly garden, nature trails with bridges for bikers, hikers, or golf carts. A 23-acre lake to enjoy plus many more! Close to shopping, dining, and the Southwest Florida International Airport.

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Remodeled bathroom
• Newer roof

Tags

• NEWER WINDOWS
• NEWER SIDING
• NEWER AC
• NEWER ROOF
• REMODELED BATHROOM
• WIDE DRIVEWAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Pets not allowed
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with quarterly fee; Association fee includes cable TV, internet, and road maintenance; Community amenities include clubhouse, fitness center, pool, spa/hot tub, tennis, pickleball, bocce, shuffleboard, racquetball, billiard room, library, bike storage, RV/boat storage, park, trails, sidewalks, management, and street lights; Senior community; Approximately 640 units in the community

Exterior

• Security: Gated community with security gate
• Utilities: Cable available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; Entry level: 1; Faces northwest
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Rolled/Hot Mop roof; Manufactured construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Lanai; Porch; Screened patio/porch; Community pool; Irregular lot; Lot exposures to the southeast

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Screened porch listed as a room type
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Jalousie windows; Furnished; Shower only with separate shower; High-speed internet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 3.4% in Estero — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.4%/yr); 668 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $760 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 223 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $110k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,712 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 223 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.43%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-8,585
• Equity at exit: $16,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-7,546
• Equity at exit: $9,502

Cash invested: $30,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33928

• Rents YoY: -1.4%
• Active inventory: 668
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,668 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$576
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,040/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$239
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $109,901

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,475
• Closing costs: $3,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $239 · $2,868/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,901 Active 223 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,901 Active 222 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,901 Active 221 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,901 Active 219 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,901 Active 215 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $109,901 Active 213 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $109,901 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,901 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $109,901 Active 206 DOM
10. 2025-10-30
    listed $109,901 Active
11. 2025-10-30
    historical
12. 2025-09-23
    price $109,901
13. 2025-06-25
    listed $89,998 Active
14. 2021-04-20
    historical
15. 2020-10-08
    price $74,947
16. 2020-08-27
    listed $79,900 Active
17. 2007-06-14
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,040 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone AH · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥107°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,015
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,156
• − Property taxes: −$1,040
• − Insurance: −$2,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − HOA: −$2,868
• − Depreciation: −$3,197
• Taxable income: $1,178
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$283
• After-tax cash flow: $2,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Estero

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #149
• US rank: #2242

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Estero, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 31,926
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,926
• Household income: $102,624
• Rent vs Own: 12.6% rent · 87.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 606.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -109.49%
• Current HPI: 197.5913
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.42%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+111.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-30 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $109,901 FORTMLS
• 2025-09-23 Price Changed $109,901 FORTMLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $89,998 FORTMLS
• 2021-04-20 Listing Removed — FORTMLS
• 2020-10-08 Price Changed $74,947 FORTMLS
• 2020-08-27 Listed $79,900 FORTMLS
• 2007-06-14 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,040 · -2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.