5274 Family Tree Dr · Tallahassee, FL 32303

$210,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,374 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1995 0.50 ac lot Est $267k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained country home set on a peaceful 0.50-acre lot! Offering 3 spacious bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms, this property blends comfort and privacy with easy access to town conveniences. The inviting living area features abundant natural light and an open layout that flows into a bright, updated kitchen with ample cabinet space and stainless steel appliances. The primary bedroom includes an en-suite bath, while two additional bedrooms offer flexibility for guests, a home office, or hobbies. Relax outdoors on the covered and screened-in porch—perfect for enjoying fresh air, morning coffee, or evening gatherings without the bugs. The generous lot offers room

Key facts

• En-suite bath
• Updated kitchen
• Ample cabinet space

Tags

• 0.50-ACRE LOT
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EN-SUITE BATH
• COVERED AND SCREENED-IN PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: HardiPlank-type exterior
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Porch; Screened porch; Partial fencing; Has a view; Private maintained road; Unimproved road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Pantry; Dishwasher; Disposal; Icemaker; Microwave; Oven; Range; Refrigerator; Stove
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 2 — 13x13; Bedroom 3 — 10x13
• Flooring: Carpet; Engineered hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s); Electric cooling
• Interior features: Window treatments; Primary bedroom on the downstairs level; Pantry; Split bedroom floorplan; Walk-in closet(s)
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $172 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $205k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Tallahassee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#19 in FL, #429 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D.
• Leon (urban): math 48% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #33 of 73 in FL (top 45%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 238 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,765 units permitted in Leon County in 2024 (975 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Leon County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,100 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.52%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,556
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5366 Water Valley Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,320 (-4%)	1mo	$238,000	$180	76
4663 Russells Pond Ln	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-2%)	1mo	$238,500	$177	74
4913 Annette Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+2%)	3mo	$262,000	$188	64
5257 Water Valley Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,457 (+6%)	7mo	$270,000	$185	62
4937 Annette Dr	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-2%)	14mo	$269,000	$200	57
5319 Water Valley Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,175 (-14%)	3mo	$245,000	$209	56
5552 Tower Woods Trl	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,338 (-3%)	14mo	$260,000	$194	53
5358 Cranford Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-8%)	10mo	$265,000	$210	50
5565 Tower Woods Trl	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,251 (-9%)	6mo	$311,000	$249	47
4621 Russells Pond Ln	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,276 (-7%)	20mo	$262,000	$205	46
5165 Water Valley Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,519 (+11%)	15mo	$288,300	$190	42
4512 Russells Pond Ln	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,263 (-8%)	14mo	$231,000	$183	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-22,778
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,574
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32303

• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 238
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,047 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$256 /mo · $3,072/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$430
• Net cashflow: $172

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,829

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4490 River Breeze Ln Tallahassee, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,400	$1.50	14d	1	0.87mi
4895 Leah Ln Tallahassee, FL	2.0	2.0	1008	$1,800	$1.79	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $210,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $210,000 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $210,000 Active 94 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $210,000 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $210,000
17. 2026-04-27
    status Active
18. 2026-04-17
    historical Active Under Contract
19. 2026-04-13
    status Active
20. 2026-04-10
    historical
21. 2026-04-03
    status Active
22. 2026-03-26
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2026-03-17
    price $219,000
24. 2026-02-27
    listed $229,000 Active
25. 2026-02-27
    historical
26. 2026-02-17
    price $229,000
27. 2026-02-03
    historical
28. 2026-02-03
    listed $235,000 Active
29. 2026-02-02
    price $235,000
30. 2026-01-01
    price $239,000
31. 2025-11-25
    listed $245,000 Active
32. 2022-06-15
    soldstatus $225,000
33. 2019-03-08
    soldstatus $160,900
34. 2019-02-28
    soldstatus $160,900
35. 2018-11-20
    listed $159,900
36. 2018-06-13
    soldstatus $74,000
37. 2018-05-04
    listed $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,072 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,563
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$3,072
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,965
• − Management: −$1,965
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable loss: −$1,361
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$327
• After-tax cash flow: $2,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Leon
• NCES district ID: 1201110
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,339
• Composite: 42.84/100
• National rank: #3131
• State rank: #33 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tallahassee

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #429

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Leon County · 294,472 people
• City population: 294,472
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,785
• Household income: $62,275
• Rent vs Own: 48.8% rent · 51.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2919.0

Population outlook (Leon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,507 people
• By 2030: 330,677 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 358,465 · +13.6%
• By 2050: 386,804 · +22.6%
• By 2075: 465,480 · +47.5%
• By 2100: 519,959 · +64.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Black 34% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Leon

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.8) · D 60.3% · R 38.5% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 24.3pp · 2024: 21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.8 2020: D+28.3 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+23.6 2008: D+24.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -255.24%
• Current HPI: 241.3131
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.12%
• Metro: Tallahassee, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+180.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $210,000 CATRS
• 2026-04-27 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-04-17 Contingent — CATRS
• 2026-04-13 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-04-10 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — CATRS
• 2026-03-26 Contingent — CATRS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $219,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-27 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $229,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $229,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $235,000 CATRS
• 2026-02-03 Listing Removed — CATRS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $235,000 CATRS
• 2026-01-01 Price Changed $239,000 CATRS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $245,000 CATRS
• 2022-06-15 Sold (Public Records) $225,000 Public Records
• 2019-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $160,900 Public Records
• 2019-02-28 Sold (MLS) $160,900 CATRS
• 2018-11-20 Listed $159,900 CATRS
• 2018-06-13 Sold (MLS) $74,000 CATRS
• 2018-05-04 Listed $75,000 CATRS

Property tax history

+10.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,072 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.