34 Stowe Rd · Hurlburt Field, FL 32569

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,423 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 1998 4,791 sqft lot $203/sqft · 9% below area Est $318k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*Seller wants to make your move easier closing-cost assistance available. * This well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located less than 10 minutes from Hurlburt Field, you'll enjoy an easy commute while still having space to relax and unwind. Inside features a spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space, a cozy fireplace in the living area, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. Enjoy Florida sunshine year-round in the screened sunroom, or step outside to the pergola and brick patio area--perfect for outdoor furniture and gatherings. Message me for details or a private showing.

Key facts

• Brick patio
• Screened sunroom
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SCREENED SUNROOM
• PERGOLA
• BRICK PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-155 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $262k (9.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 178 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $207k; 40% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,711 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.30%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $318,381
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -9.23%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
792 Pearl Sand Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,348 (-5%)	5mo	$330,000	$245	82
78 Stowe Rd	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-8%)	3mo	$256,500	$196	80
352 Brookwood Blvd	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+1%)	4mo	$321,000	$223	75
366 Brookwood Blvd	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,386 (-3%)	5mo	$320,000	$231	73
1013 Freeport Ct	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,480 (+4%)	2mo	$325,000	$220	71
2013 Bob White Ct	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,452 (+2%)	6mo	$321,000	$221	65
406 Springate Ct	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,552 (+9%)	3mo	$317,000	$204	65
428 Sandy Ridge Cir	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+5%)	2mo	$335,000	$223	63
1022 Quail Hollow Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,336 (-6%)	4mo	$320,000	$240	63
15 W Casa Loma Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+10%)	3mo	$310,000	$198	62
925 Lajolla Ln	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,560 (+10%)	4mo	$319,000	$204	62
413 Bristol Cove Rd	0.46mi	3/2.5	1,550 (+9%)	4mo	$340,000	$219	59

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-63,191
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-92,775
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32569

• Home prices YoY: -26.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 178
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,197 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$255 /mo · $3,060/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$461
• Net cashflow: $-155

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,394

Max offer price $261,569

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $8	-5% $-73	+0% $-155	+5% $-237	+10% $-319
Rent	-10% $-329	-5% $-242	+0% $-155	+5% $-68	+10% $18
Rate	-1.0pp $-10	-0.5pp $-82	base $-155	+0.5pp $-230	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20 Stowe Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1316	$2,000	$1.52	23d	1	0.06mi
46 Kathleen Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.11mi
771 Pearl Sand Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1775	$2,100	$1.18	15d	1	0.19mi
469 Westgate Way Mary Esther, FL	2.0	2.5	1544	$2,150	$1.39	45d	1	0.20mi
711 Marsh Harbor Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1601	$2,195	$1.37	45d	1	0.30mi
199 Lakeside Ln Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1546	$2,000	$1.29	15d	1	0.40mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$1,850	$1.34	15d	1	0.50mi
427 Bristol Cove Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1382	$2,000	$1.45	45d	1	0.50mi
3007 Bob White Dr Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.5	1680	$2,300	$1.37	15d	1	0.52mi
116 Dolphin Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	45d	1	0.70mi
208 Squirrel Haven Rd Unit A Mary Esther, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,200	$1.09	45d	1	0.83mi
1020 Pinetree Rd Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1325	$2,200	$1.66	45d	1	1.17mi
499 Spring Brook Ln Mary Esther, FL	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,850	$1.20	45d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-05-18
   status Pending 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   *Seller wants to make your move easier closing-cost assistance available. * This well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located less than 10 minutes from Hurlburt Field, you'll enjoy an easy commute while still having space to relax and unwind. Inside features a spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space, a cozy fireplace in the living area, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. Enjoy Florida sunshine year-round in the screened sunroom, or step outside to the pergola and brick patio area--perfect for outdoor furniture and gatherings. Message me for details or a private showing.

2. 2026-05-07
   price $289,000 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   *Seller wants to make your move easier closing-cost assistance available. * This well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located less than 10 minutes from Hurlburt Field, you'll enjoy an easy commute while still having space to relax and unwind. Inside features a spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space, a cozy fireplace in the living area, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. Enjoy Florida sunshine year-round in the screened sunroom, or step outside to the pergola and brick patio area--perfect for outdoor furniture and gatherings. Message me for details or a private showing.

3. 2026-03-03
   listed $300,000 Active 655-char remark

   Show marketing remark (655 chars)

   *Seller wants to make your move easier closing-cost assistance available. * This well-maintained 3 bed, 2 bath home offers the perfect blend of comfort and convenience. Located less than 10 minutes from Hurlburt Field, you'll enjoy an easy commute while still having space to relax and unwind. Inside features a spacious kitchen with plenty of counter space, a cozy fireplace in the living area, and a functional layout designed for everyday living. Enjoy Florida sunshine year-round in the screened sunroom, or step outside to the pergola and brick patio area--perfect for outdoor furniture and gatherings. Message me for details or a private showing.

4. 2024-09-26
   historical $1,800
5. 2024-09-07
   price $1,800
6. 2024-08-21
   listed $2,000
7. 2020-04-01
   soldstatus $207,000 Sold 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

8. 2020-04-01
   soldstatus $207,000 137-char remark

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

9. 2020-04-01
   soldstatus $207,000

   Show marketing remark (137 chars)

   This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

10. 2020-02-28
    status Pending 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

11. 2020-02-26
    status Active 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

12. 2020-01-07
    listed $210,000 137-char remark

    Show marketing remark (137 chars)

    This cozy 3 bedroom 2 bath home, is in short distance to Hurlburt Field. The property has been well maintained and documents are on file.

13. 1998-05-29
    soldstatus $95,900
14. 1997-10-09
    listed $95,900
15. 1997-09-01
    soldstatus $18,500
16. 1996-06-29
    listed $89,350

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,060 · $255/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,060 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 17% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,365
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,060
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,109
• − Management: −$2,109
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$6,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Hurlburt Field

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 12,063
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 12,063
• Household income: $77,718
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 416.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Two or more races 12% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 4% Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.13%
• Current HPI: 269.266
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.45%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+223.4% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Pending — NAMLS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $289,000 NAMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $300,000 NAMLS
• 2024-09-26 Rental Removed $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2024-09-07 Price Changed $1,800 BUILDIUM
• 2024-08-21 Listed for Rent $2,000 BUILDIUM
• 2020-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $207,000 Public Records
• 2020-04-01 Sold (MLS) $207,000 NAMLS
• 2020-04-01 Sold (MLS) $207,000 ECAR
• 2020-02-28 Pending — ECAR
• 2020-02-26 Relisted — ECAR
• 2020-01-07 Listed $210,000 NAMLS
• 1998-05-29 Sold (MLS) $95,900 ECAR
• 1997-10-09 Listed $95,900 ECAR
• 1997-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records
• 1996-06-29 Listed $89,350 ECAR

Property tax history

+12.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,060 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.