20035 Dawn Mist Dr · Atascocita, TX 77346

$177,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1980 6,403 sqft lot Est $210k · 16% under $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Inviting single-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and two full large bathrooms. This home also features a cozy kitchen, a fireplace for those cold nights, a formal dining room, and a capacious family room great for entertaining! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today! Hurry Hurry Hurry!

Key facts

• 6,403 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association: Atascocita North CIA c/o Sterling; Annual association fee of $308; Community pool

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling (central air); Central gas heating
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1980; Slab foundation
• Construction: Construction materials: Unknown
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Composition roof; Smoke detectors

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5 (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace (1); Window treatments / coverings; Seller provided disclosure available
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $177k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $141 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $177k).
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.1% in Atascocita — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#346 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Humble ISD (urban): math 38% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #262 of 826 in TX (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Timberwood Middle (math 31% / reading 46%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,094 students, 54% FRL); Atascocita H S (math 41% / reading 52%, grade D-, #621 of 1,632 statewide, top 38%, 3,829 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 32% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 669 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.40%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $210,158
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20035 Dawn Mist Dr	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,534 (0%)	0mo	$177,000	$115	100
5415 Fawn Trail Ln	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,467 (-4%)	2mo	$175,000	$119	80
5534 Deer Timbers Trl	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	75
20130 Misty Pines Dr	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,365 (-11%)	1mo	$225,000	$165	73
19914 Big Timber Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,610 (+5%)	5mo	$198,000	$123	70
5619 Fawn Trail Ln	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+8%)	1mo	$214,990	$129	64
5442 Dove Forest Ln	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-10%)	9mo	$200,000	$145	64
20026 Faye Oaks Dr	0.31mi	3/3.0	1,376 (-10%)	10mo	$214,000	$156	56
20018 Big Timber Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,755 (+14%)	3mo	$219,800	$125	56
20211 Big Timber Ct	0.38mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,721 (+12%)	0mo	$204,000	$119	54
19731 Burle Oaks Ct	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,682 (+10%)	10mo	$230,000	$137	51
5219 Forest Timbers Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,669 (+9%)	1mo	$239,000	$143	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.95% appreciation · 0.09% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.81×
• Total profit: $-9,276
• Equity at exit: $43,115

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,121
• Equity at exit: $45,607

Cash invested: $49,560 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77346

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 669
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$928
• Tax from tax record: −$323 /mo · $3,880/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $141

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,710

Max offer price $177,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,250
• Closing costs: $5,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
20143 Dawn Mist Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1617	$1,659	$1.03	43d	1	0.16mi
5419 Deer Timbers Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1313	$1,705	$1.30	22d	1	0.30mi
19902 Burle Oak Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1532	$1,699	$1.11	43d	1	0.31mi
19113 Moon Trail Dr Unit ECT Humble, TX	2.0	2.0	1054	$1,319	$1.25	11d	1	1.05mi
6519 Kings Glen Dr Humble, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1255	$2,813	$2.24	1d	16	1.23mi
20707 Redbud Trl Humble, TX	3.0	2.5	1965	$2,450	$1.25	22d	1	1.26mi
20618 Carmine Oak Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	2087	$2,195	$1.05	43d	1	1.32mi
6227 Spruce Bough Ct Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,800	$1.26	43d	1	1.36mi
5303 Hill Timbers Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1884	$2,050	$1.09	43d	1	1.36mi
5231 Flax Bourton St Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1513	$1,856	$1.23	1d	1	1.41mi
18835 Atasca Oaks Dr Humble, TX	3.0	2.0	1432	$1,829	$1.28	5d	1	1.48mi
5248 Timbers Quail Dr Atascocita, TX	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,225	$1.17	43d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-20
   listed $177,000 Active
3. 2024-09-04
   historical $1,650
4. 2024-08-28
   price $1,650
5. 2024-08-08
   listed $1,700
6. 2023-06-22
   historical
7. 2014-03-18
   soldstatus
8. 2012-10-22
   soldstatus
9. 2012-08-24
   soldstatus 437-char remark

   Show marketing remark (437 chars)

   Inviting single-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and two full large bathrooms. This home also features a cozy kitchen, a fireplace for those cold nights, a formal dining room, and a capacious family room great for entertaining! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today! Hurry Hurry Hurry!

10. 2012-08-24
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Inviting single-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and two full large bathrooms. This home also features a cozy kitchen, a fireplace for those cold nights, a formal dining room, and a capacious family room great for entertaining! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today! Hurry Hurry Hurry!

11. 2012-07-23
    historical 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Inviting single-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and two full large bathrooms. This home also features a cozy kitchen, a fireplace for those cold nights, a formal dining room, and a capacious family room great for entertaining! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today! Hurry Hurry Hurry!

12. 2012-04-10
    listed $59,900 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Inviting single-story home featuring three spacious bedrooms and two full large bathrooms. This home also features a cozy kitchen, a fireplace for those cold nights, a formal dining room, and a capacious family room great for entertaining! Enjoy the open backyard great for all your family activites! Don't miss a great opportunity to view this warm home up close and personal before it's too late! Check it out today! Hurry Hurry Hurry!

13. 2008-05-05
    soldstatus
14. 2001-02-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,880 · $323/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,915
• − Property taxes: −$3,880
• − Insurance: −$885
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$5,149
• Taxable loss: −$1,106
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$265
• After-tax cash flow: $1,952/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Humble ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823910
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $83,946
• Composite: 38.55/100
• National rank: #4171
• State rank: #262 of 826 in TX

Livability — Atascocita

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #7586

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Atascocita, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 79,538
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 79,538
• Household income: $122,241
• Rent vs Own: 18.3% rent · 81.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1072.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 21% Two or more races 18% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 17% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.95%
• Current HPI: 218.0478
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+195.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listed $177,000 HARMLS
• 2024-09-04 Rental Removed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $1,650 HARMLS
• 2024-08-08 Listed for Rent $1,700 HARMLS
• 2023-06-22 Rental Removed — HARMLS
• 2014-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-10-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-08-24 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2012-07-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2012-04-10 Listed $59,900 HARMLS
• 2008-05-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-02-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,880 · -9.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.