6188 S Labelle · Baldwin, MI 49642

$87,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 572 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1950 0.34 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• Built 1950

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $87k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $102 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $81k (7.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $81k (7.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Baldwin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#360 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Baldwin Community Schools (rural): math 21% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #618 of 760 in MI (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 45 active listings in the ZIP; 30 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($601 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,504 (7.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
5. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
6. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.04%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $16,965
• Equity at exit: $39,119

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $51,238
• Equity at exit: $60,287

Cash invested: $24,360 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49642

• Active inventory: 45
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$456
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $495/yr
• Insurance: −$36
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$169
• Net cashflow: $102

Break-even live

Break-even rent $676

Max offer price $87,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,750
• Closing costs: $2,610
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-10-03
   status Pending 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

2. 2025-10-03
   status Pending 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

3. 2025-10-03
   status Pending

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

4. 2025-10-03
   listed $87,000 Active 165-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

5. 2025-10-03
   listed $87,000 Active 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

6. 2025-10-03
   listed $87,000 Active

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

7. 2025-10-03
   historical $87,000 161-char remark

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

8. 2025-10-03
   historical $87,000

   Show marketing remark (161 chars)

   Looking for a spot that is beautiful and private where you can enjoy nature's finest? This fixer-upper located on Tank Lake in Idlewild offers so much potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $495 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $917 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$423/yr (+$35/mo · 85.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,873
• − Property taxes: −$495
• − Insurance: −$435
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$773
• − Management: −$773
• − Depreciation: −$2,531
• Taxable loss: −$219
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$53
• After-tax cash flow: $1,280/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603810
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $27,638
• Composite: 22.56/100
• National rank: #13447
• State rank: #618 of 760 in MI

Livability — Baldwin

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #360
• US rank: #9207

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,062

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,933 people
• By 2030: 10,503 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 9,470 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 8,526 · -22.0%
• By 2075: 7,160 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 5,634 · -48.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 42% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.2) · D 33.2% · R 65.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -44.5pp toward R · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: -32.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.2 2020: R+26.2 2016: R+22.9 2012: D+5.0 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-03 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-03 Pending — REALCOMP
• 2025-10-03 Pending — SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $87,000 REALCOMP
• 2025-10-03 Listed $87,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listed $87,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2025-10-03 Coming Soon $87,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-10-03 Coming Soon $87,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $495 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.