1705 Seabass Ln · Poinciana, FL 34759

$319,888

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,277 sqft · Land · 357 Days on market

Built 2025 6,970 sqft lot $6/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Appreciation +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

Key facts

• Dining area
• Great room
• Gorgeous cabinets

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DINING AREA
• OPEN KITCHEN
• GORGEOUS CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath land listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-472 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $252k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $221k (31.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $221k (31.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 1151 active listings in the ZIP; 31 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.5%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 357 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $47k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; list at $320k implies a 900% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,833 (31.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 357 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.52%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.32%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.48% appreciation · 1.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-65,020
• Equity at exit: $69,934

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-92,073
• Equity at exit: $67,397

Cash invested: $89,569 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34759

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 1151
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,208 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,798/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$6
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$464
• Net cashflow: $-472

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,806

Max offer price $251,575

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-251	-5% $-362	+0% $-472	+5% $-583	+10% $-693
Rent	-10% $-647	-5% $-559	+0% $-472	+5% $-385	+10% $-298
Rate	-1.0pp $-311	-0.5pp $-391	base $-472	+0.5pp $-555	+1.0pp $-639

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,972
• Closing costs: $9,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 31 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1707 Sail Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1823	$2,015	$1.11	4d	1	0.16mi
116 Sail Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,805	$1.09	12d	1	0.16mi
104 Herring Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1699	$1,925	$1.13	4d	1	0.33mi
1630 Tench Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	3.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	4d	1	0.34mi
1662 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1852	$1,940	$1.05	24d	1	0.42mi
5 Flatfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$2,150	$1.30	24d	1	0.42mi
1660 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,975	$1.19	4d	1	0.43mi
1658 Redfin Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,810	$1.09	4d	1	0.43mi
202 Snapper Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$2,050	$1.23	4d	1	0.46mi
102 Flatfish Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	2804	$2,000	$0.71	24d	1	0.47mi
102 Flatfish Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2804	$2,000	$0.71	4d	1	0.47mi
1884 Snapper Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1682	$1,985	$1.18	15d	1	0.51mi
241 Grouper Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1762	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	0.53mi
1701 Pilchard Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1720	$2,050	$1.19	24d	1	0.57mi
205 Dogfish Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1578	$1,680	$1.06	14d	1	0.70mi
301 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2134	$2,000	$0.94	22d	1	0.79mi
303 Shad Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1930	$1,999	$1.04	24d	1	0.80mi
310 Dogfish Way Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1700	$1,950	$1.15	24d	1	0.85mi
352 Kingfish Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	24d	1	0.98mi
307 Michigan Ln Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1673	$1,744	$1.04	15d	1	0.98mi
1907 Manatee Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1803	$1,795	$1.00	24d	1	1.05mi
1431 Teal Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2215	$2,445	$1.10	3d	1	1.10mi
459 Rio Grande Ln Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	2000	$1,745	$0.87	24d	1	1.13mi
308 Bass Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1614	$2,100	$1.30	4d	1	1.17mi
1405 Teal Ct Poinciana, FL	4.0	2.0	1605	$1,700	$1.06	24d	1	1.21mi
1401 Punta Gorda Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	2630	$1,925	$0.73	4d	1	1.22mi
431 Arkansas Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.5	1764	$1,895	$1.07	4d	1	1.43mi
1851 Superior Ct Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1661	$1,800	$1.08	24d	1	1.48mi
105 Zinnia Ln W Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,100	$1.31	4d	1	1.49mi
339 W Aster Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1504	$2,345	$1.56	3d	1	1.49mi
1364 Congo Dr Kissimmee, FL	4.0	2.0	1667	$1,750	$1.05	4d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $6 · $72/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-04-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-18
   price $319,888
3. 2026-03-12
   status Active
4. 2026-03-12
   price $329,990
5. 2026-02-12
   price $309,888
6. 2026-01-27
   price $319,990
7. 2025-12-12
   historical
8. 2025-10-29
   price $324,990
9. 2025-10-21
   price $334,990
10. 2025-09-30
    price $344,990
11. 2025-09-15
    price $349,990
12. 2025-08-12
    price $359,990
13. 2025-03-20
    status Active
14. 2025-02-14
    price $349,990
15. 2024-12-12
    listed $366,990 Active
16. 2022-05-09
    soldstatus $32,000
17. 2022-05-03
    soldstatus $32,000 Closed 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

18. 2022-04-12
    status Pending 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

19. 2022-02-21
    price $34,500 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

20. 2022-01-18
    status Active 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

21. 2021-12-28
    status Pending 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

22. 2021-12-27
    listed $39,500 Active 81-char remark

    Show marketing remark (81 chars)

    A quality high and dry lot right across the street from utilities. Power on site.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,500
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,919
• − Property taxes: −$4,798
• − Insurance: −$1,599
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,120
• − Management: −$2,120
• − HOA: −$72
• − Depreciation: −$9,306
• Taxable loss: −$11,434
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,744
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 44,568
• Household income: $69,373
• Rent vs Own: 20.4% rent · 79.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1186.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 21% Two or more races 20% Black 19%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 38% Cuban 6% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 49% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.48%
• Current HPI: 276.6861
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+709.8% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $319,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $329,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $309,888 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $319,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-12 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-29 Price Changed $324,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $334,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-30 Price Changed $344,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-12 Price Changed $359,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-20 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-14 Price Changed $349,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-12 Listed $366,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $32,000 Public Records
• 2022-05-03 Sold (MLS) $32,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-04-12 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-02-21 Price Changed $34,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-18 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-12-27 Listed $39,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $364 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.