3020 33rd Way N · Birmingham, AL 35207

$39,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,143 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1951 7,405 sqft lot Est $31k · 29% over ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.9/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks

Opportunity awaits! A classic Birmingham home offering timeless character and room to make it your own. This property features a covered front porch, mature yard, and traditional layout that reflects the charm of its era. Inside, you’ll find original hardwood flooring, generously sized living areas, and ample natural light throughout. The kitchen provides a functional footprint with space to reimagine storage and finishes, while the overall layout offers flexibility for customization. Whether you’re an investor or a buyer with vision, this home presents a strong canvas for creative updates and long-term value. Conveniently located near major routes, local amenities, and downtown

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Ample natural light
• Functional footprint

Tags

• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORING
• GENEROUSLY SIZED LIVING AREAS
• AMPLE NATURAL LIGHT
• FUNCTIONAL FOOTPRINT
• CONVENIENTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $165 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 24.1% vs local median 6.2% in Birmingham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#78 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, employment F.
• Birmingham City (urban): math 4% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #116 of 129 in AL (top 90%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 82% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hudson Keight School (math 0% / reading 7%, grade F, #627 of 627 statewide, top 100%, 633 students, 94% FRL).
• Market conditions: 44 active listings in the ZIP; 35 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,114 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (556 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($276 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 63.53%
• DSCR: 3.83
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $30,861
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3311 33rd Pl N	0.16mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+5%)	12mo	$80,000	$67	74
3429 31st Pl	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,120 (-2%)	19mo	$30,000	$27	48
3426 31st Pl N	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-12%)	23mo	$8,500	$8	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $32,515
• Equity at exit: $35,945

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.6%
• Equity multiple: 8.88×
• Total profit: $88,046
• Equity at exit: $77,517

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35207

• Home prices YoY: 18.7%
• Active inventory: 44
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $617/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$231
• Net cashflow: $165

Break-even live

Break-even rent $891

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $188	-5% $176	+0% $165	+5% $154	+10% $142
Rent	-10% $78	-5% $121	+0% $165	+5% $208	+10% $252
Rate	-1.0pp $185	-0.5pp $175	base $165	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $144

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 35 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3373 33rd Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	912	$1,150	$1.26	4d	1	0.34mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	13d	1	0.35mi
3376 34th St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	25d	1	0.35mi
3376 34th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	928	$1,200	$1.29	4d	1	0.37mi
2129 30th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	25d	1	0.58mi
3016 33rd Ct N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1012	$1,100	$1.09	45d	1	0.59mi
3311 16th Ave N Unit 3323 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	3d	1	0.80mi
3311 16th Ave N Unit 3321 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	25d	1	0.80mi
3311 16th Ave N Unit 3317 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	45d	1	0.80mi
1515 36th Pl N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,273	$1.06	45d	1	0.88mi
3509 Norwood Blvd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	943	$1,100	$1.17	4d	1	0.89mi
3001 Norwood Blvd Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1092	$1,500	$1.37	4d	1	0.92mi
3708 42nd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	876	$950	$1.08	45d	1	0.96mi
1405 33rd St N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	952	$990	$1.04	25d	1	0.99mi
1444 31st St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	1.0	1014	$1,295	$1.28	25d	1	1.04mi
2608 20th Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	45d	1	1.12mi
2608 20th Ave N Unit 5 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$875	$1.17	45d	1	1.12mi
4316 Gadsden St Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	1048	$1,100	$1.05	4d	1	1.19mi
2108 25th St N Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1446	$1,300	$0.90	45d	1	1.22mi
2428 21st Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	3d	1	1.24mi
2428 21st Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	4d	1	1.24mi
2428 21st Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$975	$1.39	12d	1	1.24mi
1303 Main St Birmingham, AL	4.0	2.0	1432	$1,300	$0.91	45d	1	1.27mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	25d	1	1.27mi
3823 43rd Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,200	$0.80	45d	1	1.27mi
3920 11th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,025	$0.85	3d	1	1.30mi
2400 19th Ave N Unit B Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	23d	1	1.32mi
4244 Jackson St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	858	$1,100	$1.28	45d	1	1.37mi
4028 40th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1186	$950	$0.80	45d	1	1.37mi
2300 21st Ave N Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$880	$1.26	45d	2	1.38mi
1017 Cahaba St Birmingham, AL	2.0	2.0	1035	$1,350	$1.30	4d	1	1.38mi
2000 Stouts Rd Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	700	$880	$1.26	45d	2	1.43mi
2129 30th Ave N Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1042	$1,000	$0.96	45d	1	1.45mi
4301 Greenwood St Birmingham, AL	3.0	1.0	1140	$1,025	$0.90	4d	1	1.46mi
1911 19th Ct N Apt 1 Birmingham, AL	2.0	1.0	750	$845	$1.13	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-03-19
   price $39,900
4. 2026-02-17
   price $44,900
5. 2026-01-14
   listed $50,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $617 · $51/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone AE · 63% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,196
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$617
• − Insurance: −$5,318
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,056
• − Management: −$1,056
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $1,754
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$421
• After-tax cash flow: $1,558/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birmingham City
• NCES district ID: 0100390
• Math proficiency: 4% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $31,988
• Composite: 9.49/100
• National rank: #9850
• State rank: #116 of 129 in AL

Livability — Birmingham

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #78
• US rank: #10412

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Birmingham, AL
• City population: 210,422
• Population (ZIP): 6,824

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 669,185 people
• By 2030: 669,694 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 661,388 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 643,086 · -3.9%
• By 2075: 577,267 · -13.7%
• By 2100: 474,758 · -29.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 86% White 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+10.4) · D 54.6% · R 44.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.1pp · 2024: 10.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.4 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+7.2 2012: D+6.0 2008: D+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 35.95%
• Current HPI: 228.5664
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-21.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-14 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $39,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $44,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-14 Listed $50,900 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+8.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $617 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.