536 Brogdon · Guyton, GA 31312

$320,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,418 sqft · SingleFamily · 240 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition 0.63 ac lot $226/sqft · at area comps Est $332k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +9.2/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.63 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $320k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-481 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $250k (21.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $219k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#128 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Effingham County (rural): math 49% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #16 of 174 in GA (top 9%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Guyton Elementary School (math 45% / reading 35%, grade F, #427 of 1,228 statewide, top 35%, 739 students, 54% FRL); Effingham County Middle School (math 38% / reading 40%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 1,064 students, 52% FRL); Effingham County High School (math 28% / reading 27%, grade F, #158 of 424 statewide, top 37%, 2,108 students, 37% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Effingham County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 463 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 836 units permitted in Effingham County in 2024 (46 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Effingham County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 240 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 95% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $219,060 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 240 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.44%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $332,490
• List price: $320,000
• Delta: -3.76%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
540 Brogdon Rd	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,316 (-7%)	4mo	$314,000	$239	68
108 Serenoa Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+4%)	2mo	$334,990	$226	49
105 Serenoa Dr	1.01mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,482 (+4%)	3mo	$324,990	$219	48
114 Serenoa Dr	0.94mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+6%)	3mo	$340,990	$228	46
1080 Fourth St Ext Ext	0.82mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,450 (+2%)	10mo	$335,000	$231	46
106 Serenoa Dr	0.93mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+6%)	5mo	$329,990	$220	44
404 Samuel Smalls Sr Ave	1.09mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,445 (+2%)	14mo	$285,000	$197	43
101 Serenoa Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-12%)	2mo	$329,990	$264	41
115 Serenoa Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	0mo	$346,990	$214	39
125 Serenoa Dr	1.00mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	2mo	$343,990	$213	38
113 Juniper Dr	1.01mi	3/2.0	1,618 (+14%)	4mo	$364,990	$226	36
174 Hunter St	0.81mi	3/2.5	1,612 (+14%)	13mo	$280,000	$174	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-82,448
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.24×
• Total profit: $-111,097
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Seller's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract
• Months of supply: 0.0 mo

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31312

• Home prices YoY: -26.6%
• Active inventory: 463
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,191 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$400 /mo · $4,800/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$460
• Net cashflow: $-481

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,799

Max offer price $250,417

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-260	-5% $-370	+0% $-481	+5% $-591	+10% $-702
Rent	-10% $-654	-5% $-567	+0% $-481	+5% $-394	+10% $-308
Rate	-1.0pp $-320	-0.5pp $-399	base $-481	+0.5pp $-564	+1.0pp $-648

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $320,000 Active 240 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $320,000 Active 239 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $320,000 Active 238 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $320,000 Active 237 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $320,000 Active 236 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $320,000 Active 235 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $320,000 Active 232 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $320,000 Active 231 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $320,000 Active 230 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $320,000 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $320,000 Active 226 DOM
12. 2026-07-23
    days on market $320,000 Active 224 DOM
13. 2026-07-22
    days on market $320,000 Active 223 DOM
14. 2026-07-21
    days on market $320,000 Active 222 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    days on market $320,000 Active 219 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $320,000 Active 217 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $320,000 Active 216 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $320,000 Active 215 DOM
19. 2026-07-13
    days on market $320,000 Active 214 DOM
20. 2026-07-12
    days on market $320,000 Active 213 DOM
21. 2026-07-11
    days on market $320,000 Active 212 DOM
22. 2026-07-10
    days on market $320,000 Active 211 DOM
23. 2026-07-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 210 DOM
24. 2026-07-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 209 DOM
25. 2026-07-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 208 DOM
26. 2026-07-06
    days on market $320,000 Active 207 DOM
27. 2026-07-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 206 DOM
28. 2026-07-04
    days on market $320,000 Active 205 DOM
29. 2026-07-03
    days on market $320,000 Active 204 DOM
30. 2026-07-02
    days on market $320,000 Active 203 DOM
31. 2026-07-01
    days on market $320,000 Active 202 DOM
32. 2026-06-30
    days on market $320,000 Active 201 DOM
33. 2026-06-29
    days on market $320,000 Active 200 DOM
34. 2026-06-28
    days on market $320,000 Active 199 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $320,000 Active 198 DOM
36. 2026-06-27
    days on market $320,000 Active 197 DOM
37. 2026-06-25
    days on market $320,000 Active 195 DOM
38. 2026-06-23
    days on market $320,000 Active 193 DOM
39. 2026-06-21
    days on market $320,000 Active 192 DOM
40. 2026-06-18
    days on market $320,000 Active 189 DOM
41. 2026-06-17
    days on market $320,000 Active 188 DOM
42. 2026-06-16
    days on market $320,000 Active 187 DOM
43. 2026-06-15
    days on market $320,000 Active 186 DOM
44. 2026-06-14
    days on market $320,000 Active 184 DOM
45. 2026-06-13
    days on market $320,000 Active 183 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $320,000 Active 181 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $320,000 Active 180 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $320,000 Active 179 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $320,000 Active 178 DOM
50. 2026-06-05
    days on market $320,000 Active 175 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 95% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,287
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$4,800
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,103
• − Management: −$2,103
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$11,553
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,773
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,998/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This property is a new construction home with no repairs or maintenance needed. It is ready for immediate occupancy and can be moved into as-is.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 36/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Guyton Elementary School F GA #427/1,228 Nat'l #19,354/41,679 Middle Effingham County Middle School F GA #155/470 Nat'l #6,362/14,009 High Effingham County High School F GA #158/424 Nat'l #11,797/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Effingham County
• NCES district ID: 1301980
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $60,503
• Composite: 42.56/100
• National rank: #3195
• State rank: #16 of 174 in GA

C Composite livability gradescore 69/100

Livability — Guyton

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #128
• US rank: #9058

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Effingham County · 67,399 people
• City population: 25,991
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• Population (ZIP): 25,991
• Household income: $101,750
• Rent vs Own: 12.2% rent · 87.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Effingham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 67,399 people
• By 2030: 72,297 · +7.3%
• By 2040: 81,602 · +21.1%
• By 2050: 89,494 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 105,976 · +57.2%
• By 2100: 111,943 · +66.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Effingham

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.1) · D 25.2% · R 74.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.6pp toward D · 2008: -50.7pp · 2024: -49.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.1 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+55.6 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+50.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -74.77%
• Current HPI: 205.9899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Savannah, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-20 Listed $320,000 Hive MLS