16409 Jackson Trace Rd · Lincoln, AL 35096

$199,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1999 6.30 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

1999 palm Harbor manufactured home on permanent foundation. Has been certified, 3 bedrooms 2 baths fireplace with gas logs, hot water heater 2 years old, electric heat pump 1 1/2 years old, dishwasher 2 years old. Covered porch across front and a drop down deck to above ground pool. Horse barn and covered arena. Paved driveway with power gate. City water and well onsite. Close to Honda, I-20 and Lincoln Schools. Not in the city limits.

Key facts

• 6.3 acre lot
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: House
• Construction: 1,560 square feet living area
• Exterior features: 6.3-acre lot

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $182k (8.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 4.2% in Lincoln — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#230 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Talladega County (rural): math 15% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #75 of 129 in AL (top 58%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 230 active listings in the ZIP; 189 units permitted in Talladega County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Talladega County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $200k implies a 100% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $159,557 (20.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.61%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $15,942
• Equity at exit: $89,474

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $68,206
• Equity at exit: $137,538

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35096

• Home prices YoY: 1.2%
• Active inventory: 230
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,596 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,750

Max offer price $182,396

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $17	-5% $-53	+0% $-122	+5% $-191	+10% $-260
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-185	+0% $-122	+5% $-59	+10% $4
Rate	-1.0pp $-21	-0.5pp $-71	base $-122	+0.5pp $-173	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-05
   remarks 439-char remark
2. 2026-06-05
   listed $199,999 Under Contract

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,147
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,532
• − Management: −$1,532
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,938
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,185
• After-tax cash flow: $-275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Talladega County
• NCES district ID: 0103180
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,715
• Composite: 24.5/100
• National rank: #7650
• State rank: #75 of 129 in AL

Livability — Lincoln

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #17221

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 9,201
• Population (ZIP): 9,201

Population outlook (Talladega County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,905 people
• By 2030: 77,160 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 72,937 · -7.6%
• By 2050: 68,279 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 57,884 · -26.6%
• By 2100: 47,220 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 19% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Vietnamese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Talladega

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.9% · R 66.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.3pp toward R · 2008: -18.5pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+25.5 2016: R+25.6 2012: R+16.0 2008: R+18.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.96%
• Current HPI: 255.9195
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+100.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed — ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2026-06-04 Listed $199,999 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2021-04-08 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2024): $280 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.