38 Pine Cir · Chadwicks, NY 13456

$49,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 850 sqft · Manufactured · 52 Days on market

Built 1994 Fair condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• Built 1994
• Listed 51 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease of $540

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Cable available; High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One story; Existing construction
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Single-wide body type
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Porch; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing range; Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Varies
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Main level primary bedroom
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#444 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Sauquoit Valley Central School District (rural): math 51% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #314 of 590 in NY (top 53%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($345 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $48,403 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 74.77%
• DSCR: 4.33
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $82,649
• Equity at exit: $44,954

10-year hold

• IRR: 79.7%
• Equity multiple: 15.30×
• Total profit: $199,829
• Equity at exit: $96,945

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13456

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,539 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $905	-5% $888	+0% $871	+5% $853	+10% $836
Rent	-10% $749	-5% $810	+0% $871	+5% $931	+10% $992
Rate	-1.0pp $896	-0.5pp $883	base $871	+0.5pp $858	+1.0pp $845

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $49,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $49,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $49,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $49,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $49,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $49,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,900 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,900 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $49,900 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $49,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,462
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,477
• − Management: −$1,477
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $10,264
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,463
• After-tax cash flow: $7,984/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with good exterior and interior maintenance. It has a good roof and foundation, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home has potential for value increase through exterior painting, landscaping improvements, and interior updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value.
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic, increasing its value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior — Painting the exterior can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Maintaining the HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency, increasing its value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior can improve the home's functionality and aesthetic, increasing its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Improving the landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sauquoit Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3600002
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,391
• Composite: 46.6/100
• National rank: #2418
• State rank: #314 of 590 in NY

Livability — Chadwicks

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #444
• US rank: #7815

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 434
• Population (ZIP): 4,103

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 17% Lithuanian 7% Subsaharan African 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.32%
• Current HPI: 329.9104
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $49,900 CNYIS