13207 Alpine Dr #189 · Poway, CA 92064

$299,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,101 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1999 Est $259k · 16% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• ARV discount +0.5/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Poway Royal Estates and this well-maintained community conveniently located near shops, restaurants and the movie theatre. This beautifully laid out 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers comfort and functionality with convenient guest parking next to the unit and grassy pet friendly areas. This home is perfect for easy everyday living.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 1999

Tags

• WELL MAINTAINED COMMUNITY
• CONVENIENT GUEST PARKING
• GRASSY PET FRIENDLY AREAS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community clubhouse and fitness center; Part of Poway Royal Estates

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story
• Construction: Metal roof
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes dishwasher, microwave, refrigerator and gas range
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (electric)
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Gas Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $950 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $299k).
• Recommended offer: $290k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.1% vs local median 1.8% in Poway — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#437 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Poway Unified (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #317 of 517 in CA (top 61%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 161 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($290k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $290,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.62%
• DSCR: 1.61
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,735
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13103 Corona Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,230 (+12%)	10mo	$289,000	$235	66
12808 Herencia Dr #387	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,101 (0%)	21mo	$227,500	$207	66

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,860
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $40,106
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92064

• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 161
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $827/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$721
• Net cashflow: $950

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,230

Max offer price $299,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,119	-5% $1,035	+0% $950	+5% $865	+10% $781
Rent	-10% $679	-5% $814	+0% $950	+5% $1,086	+10% $1,221
Rate	-1.0pp $1,101	-0.5pp $1,026	base $950	+0.5pp $873	+1.0pp $794

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12946 Morene St Poway, CA	3.0	2.0	1125	$3,750	$3.33	44d	1	0.50mi
12923 Slack St Poway, CA	4.0	2.0	1255	$4,250	$3.39	19d	1	0.50mi
12849 Poway Rd Poway, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	969	$3,813	$3.93	0d	12	0.58mi
12878 Carriage Heights Way Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	1034	$3,095	$2.99	25d	1	0.60mi
13130 Carriage Rd Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	864	$3,125	$3.62	6d	2	0.61mi
13221 Carriage Rd Poway, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	731	$2,770	$3.79	0d	2	0.63mi
12719 Robison Blvd Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	737	$2,500	$3.39	19d	1	0.77mi
13517 Hilleary Park Dr Poway, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1039	$4,320	$4.16	0d	1	0.79mi
13546 Hilleary Pl Poway, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	790	$3,031	$3.84	0d	12	0.84mi
12609 Robison Blvd #201 Poway, CA	3.0	2.0	937	$3,000	$3.20	17d	1	0.86mi
13689 Cynthia Ln Unit 13687-30 Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,395	$2.18	16d	1	0.96mi
13689 Cynthia Ln Unit 13685-08 Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,350	$2.14	25d	1	0.96mi
12425 Oak Knoll Rd Poway, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	787	$2,610	$3.31	2d	3	0.96mi
13743 McKenzie Ave Poway, CA	4.0	2.0	1470	$4,250	$2.89	44d	1	1.02mi
13951 Midland Rd Poway, CA	2.0	2.0	984	$2,900	$2.95	25d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,000 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $299,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,000 Active 17 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $299,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $827 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,272 · $189/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,445/yr (+$120/mo · 174.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $41,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$827
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,295
• − Management: −$3,295
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable income: $6,828
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,639
• After-tax cash flow: $9,761/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poway Unified
• NCES district ID: 0631530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -45.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -50.00%
• Median HH income: $102,903
• Composite: 27.12/100
• National rank: #7036
• State rank: #317 of 517 in CA

Livability — Poway

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #437
• US rank: #14979

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poway, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 48,683
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 48,683
• Household income: $148,673
• Rent vs Own: 24.8% rent · 75.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 973.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Asian 13% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -793.75%
• Current HPI: 364.0529
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.50%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $299,000 SDMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2013): $827 · +2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.