5118 Senior St · Houston, TX 77016

$85,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 939 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 160 Days on market

Built 1940 7,000 sqft lot $91/sqft · 47% below area Est $162k · 47% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a fixer upper near Downtown? Come see this fixer upper with great potential. Only 10 mins from Downtown Houston. Nice size lot has endless possibilities.

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 160 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.7% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($588 loan paydown + $7k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 160 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 160 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.85%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,873
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -47.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9401 Heatherside St	0.31mi	2/1.0	976 (+4%)	4mo	$89,000	$91	76
5713 Rietta St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	4mo	$204,500	$213	74
5118 Firnat St	0.45mi	3/1.0 (+1)	944 (+0%)	2mo	$95,000	$101	72
5715 Rietta St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	960 (+2%)	7mo	$204,500	$213	72
5019 Antha St	0.10mi	3/1.0 (+1)	888 (-5%)	22mo	$196,999	$222	63
4814 Firnat St	0.49mi	3/1.0 (+1)	866 (-8%)	1mo	$80,000	$92	59
9318 Bertwood St	0.52mi	2/1.0	845 (-10%)	13mo	$129,999	$154	48
5109 Fitch St	0.48mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,058 (+13%)	2mo	$180,000	$170	46
5617 Westbrook Rd	0.41mi	2/1.0	815 (-13%)	22mo	$85,000	$104	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.34×
• Total profit: $55,656
• Equity at exit: $68,363

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.94×
• Total profit: $141,427
• Equity at exit: $139,480

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,183 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$139 /mo · $1,672/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$248
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $785

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4419 Trigg St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,145	$1.31	43d	1	0.46mi
4419 Trigg St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	872	$1,199	$1.38	7d	1	0.46mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 1 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,195	$1.41	5d	1	1.02mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 16 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	43d	1	1.02mi
9100 Dodson St Unit 17 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	850	$1,050	$1.24	24d	1	1.02mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	43d	1	1.05mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	43d	1	1.06mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	43d	1	1.06mi
4679 Weaver Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	856	$990	$1.16	43d	1	1.19mi
4442 Weaver Rd Unit 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	24d	1	1.25mi
4422 Weaver Rd Apt 707 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	765	$1,110	$1.45	43d	1	1.30mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	43d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 160 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 159 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 158 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 157 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 155 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 151 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $85,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $85,000 Active 146 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 143 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 142 DOM
12. 2026-01-09
    listed $85,000 Active
13. 2021-11-10
    soldstatus
14. 2021-11-05
    soldstatus Sold 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Looking for a fixer upper near Downtown? Come see this fixer upper with great potential. Only 10 mins from Downtown Houston. Nice size lot has endless possibilities.

15. 2021-10-31
    status Pending 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Looking for a fixer upper near Downtown? Come see this fixer upper with great potential. Only 10 mins from Downtown Houston. Nice size lot has endless possibilities.

16. 2021-10-26
    status Option Pending 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Looking for a fixer upper near Downtown? Come see this fixer upper with great potential. Only 10 mins from Downtown Houston. Nice size lot has endless possibilities.

17. 2021-10-21
    listed $72,000 Active 165-char remark

    Show marketing remark (165 chars)

    Looking for a fixer upper near Downtown? Come see this fixer upper with great potential. Only 10 mins from Downtown Houston. Nice size lot has endless possibilities.

18. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus
19. 2020-11-19
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,672 · $139/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$1,672
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,136
• − Management: −$1,136
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $2,596
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$623
• After-tax cash flow: $3,148/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-09 Listed $85,000 HARMLS
• 2021-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-11-05 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2021-10-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-26 Pending — HARMLS
• 2021-10-21 Listed $72,000 HARMLS
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-11-19 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,672 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.