7616 Upper Seguin Rd · Converse, TX 78109

$79,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · Manufactured public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2018 Fair condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Front and rear flood lights Ring surveillance all around Hardy Board Skirting Close to Judson Highschool Tier 3 Insulation Large front porch small back porch

Key facts

• Hardy board skirting
• Large front porch
• Tier 3 insulation

Tags

• FLOOD LIGHTS
• RING SURVEILLANCE
• HARDY BOARD SKIRTING
• TIER 3 INSULATION
• LARGE FRONT PORCH
• SMALL BACK PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Built in 2018
• Construction: Living area of approximately 1,456
• Exterior features: Located in the Northeast Side subdivision

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $79k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $705 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $79k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.0% vs local median 4.4% in Converse — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#649 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, amenities F.
• Judson ISD (suburban): math 21% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #660 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 1152 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 8,308 units permitted in Bexar County in 2024 (2,506 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $546 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bexar County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,815 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 38.23%
• DSCR: 2.70
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 30.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $27,386
• Equity at exit: $11,779

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.87×
• Total profit: $63,510
• Equity at exit: $6,830

Cash invested: $22,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78109

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 1152
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,615 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$414
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,489/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $705

Break-even live

Break-even rent $723

Max offer price $79,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,750
• Closing costs: $2,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8827 Slumber Ln Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,000	$1.55	44d	1	0.22mi
8818 Slumber Ln Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1259	$1,700	$1.35	2d	1	0.25mi
317 Vivian Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1454	$1,650	$1.13	3d	1	0.31mi
10814 Lillia BR San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,600	$1.26	44d	1	0.37mi
305 Jeanette Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1084	$1,600	$1.48	24d	1	0.41mi
309 Jeanette Dr Converse, TX	4.0	2.0	1105	$1,595	$1.44	24d	1	0.42mi
9060 FM 78 Converse, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0	769	$1,150	$1.50	2d	11	0.42mi
209 Royal Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	952	$1,500	$1.58	15d	1	0.48mi
6907 Saharastone Dr Converse, TX	3.0	3.0	1211	$1,310	$1.08	4d	1	0.49mi
6907 Saharastone Dr Converse, TX	3.0	3.0	1211	$1,416	$1.17	12d	1	0.49mi
6610 Eastern Clouds Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1496	$1,660	$1.11	4d	1	0.64mi
812 Station St Converse, TX	2.0	1.0	1100	$975	$0.89	24d	1	0.66mi
810 Station St Apt 3 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$825	$0.76	4d	1	0.68mi
810 Station St Unit 1 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	1088	$899	$0.83	24d	1	0.68mi
202 Ash Dr Unit 103 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	900	$995	$1.11	24d	1	0.69mi
8355 Crestway Dr Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	865	$947	$1.09	3d	1	0.70mi
6822 Eden Grove Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,490	$1.04	44d	1	0.74mi
517 Oak Dr Converse, TX	3.0	1.5	894	$1,500	$1.68	24d	1	0.74mi
6846 Columbia Ridge Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1307	$1,430	$1.09	4d	1	0.77mi
9019 Gore Cres Converse, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	2058	$2,220	$1.08	2d	1	0.79mi
7611 Overview Pl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1451	$1,750	$1.21	15d	1	0.80mi
8206 Longhorn Ridge Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$1,525	$1.10	3d	1	0.82mi
103 Avenue F Unit A Converse, TX	2.0	1.0	1372	$1,175	$0.86	44d	1	0.88mi
9234 Foxing Blfs Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1414	$1,825	$1.29	3d	1	0.88mi
8304 Heights Vly Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,450	$1.16	15d	1	0.92mi
301 Converse Center St Converse, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,417	$1.45	44d	1	0.93mi
320 Station St Unit 101 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	877	$825	$0.94	12d	1	0.98mi
9180 Shadow Creek Ln Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	848	$1,169	$1.38	3d	1	1.00mi
8848 Staghorn Ml Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,500	$1.24	4d	1	1.02mi
6426 Thorpe Holw Converse, TX	3.0	2.5	1414	$1,600	$1.13	24d	1	1.03mi
9619 Copper Rock Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,700	$1.31	44d	1	1.03mi
9711 Copper Rock Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,645	$1.24	44d	1	1.06mi
6027 Kensinger Pass Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,480	$1.11	4d	1	1.07mi
7135 Grassy Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,000	$1.41	44d	1	1.20mi
208 Michelle Dr Converse, TX	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,400	$1.21	24d	1	1.22mi
9205 Farm to Market Road 78 Unit 710 Converse, TX	2.0	2.0	896	$1,051	$1.17	3d	1	1.32mi
5736 Brook Pr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.5	1497	$1,500	$1.00	24d	1	1.39mi
7919 Wayside Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1453	$1,400	$0.96	44d	1	1.41mi
7443 Longing Trl San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1487	$1,495	$1.01	12d	1	1.42mi
7114 Elm Trail Dr San Antonio, TX	3.0	2.0	1332	$1,600	$1.20	44d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,000 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,000 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,000 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,000 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $79,000 Active 6 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $79,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $79,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   remarks 160-char remark
10. 2026-06-04
    listed $79,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,489 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,489 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,425
• − Property taxes: −$1,489
• − Insurance: −$395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,550
• − Management: −$1,550
• − Depreciation: −$2,298
• Taxable income: $7,673
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,842
• After-tax cash flow: $6,615/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires moderate renovations, focusing on updating the kitchen, bathrooms, flooring, and paint to improve its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen cabinets — No photos of kitchen
• Major bathroom fixtures — No photos of bathrooms
• Major flooring — Worn carpet
• Major paint — Worn paint

Value-add opportunities

• Both New flooring — Improves appearance and comfort
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both New kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · No photos of kitchen	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · No photos of bathrooms	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn carpet	Major	$15,000–50,000
paint · Worn paint	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both New flooring — Improves appearance and comfort ↑
• Both Paint interior walls — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both New kitchen cabinets and fixtures — Modernizes the space and adds value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Judson ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824990
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,542
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7689
• State rank: #660 of 826 in TX

Livability — Converse

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #649
• US rank: #12250

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Converse, TX
• County: Bexar County · 1,990,555 people
• City population: 1,806,925
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 63,067
• Household income: $91,320
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1732.0

Population outlook (Bexar County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,336,851 people
• By 2030: 2,560,728 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 3,020,569 · +29.3%
• By 2050: 3,493,522 · +49.5%
• By 2075: 4,668,459 · +99.8%
• By 2100: 5,533,242 · +136.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 44% White 27% Two or more races 21% Black 21% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 23% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bexar

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.8) · D 54.3% · R 44.6% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.2pp toward D · 2008: 5.6pp · 2024: 9.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.8 2020: D+18.2 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+4.6 2008: D+5.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.02%
• Current HPI: 236.4923
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+88.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $79,000 FSBO.com
• 2003-09-17 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2003-06-19 Listed $42,000 LERA