1119 Nugent Ave · Baywood, NY 11706

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1956 0.50 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.7/30.0
• 1% rule +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +8.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale Subject to Lenders Approval, Home sold as is with Occupants , Home Needs complete Renovations Do Not disturb Occupants. , Additional information: Appearance:Fair, Separate Hotwater Heater:yes

Key facts

• 0.5 acre lot
• Built 1956
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $418 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#706 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brentwood Union Free School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #542 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Southwest Elementary School (math 12% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,912 of 2,108 statewide, top 91%, 980 students, 81% FRL); West Middle School (math 24% / reading 33%, grade F, #569 of 729 statewide, top 78%, 848 students, 78% FRL); Brentwood High School (math 83% / reading 67%, grade A-, #631 of 1,100 statewide, top 58%, 4,641 students, 80% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 208 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 46% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $330k (62%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.42% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.80%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.97%
• DSCR: 1.40
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-7,220
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $22,059
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11706

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 208
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,836 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$691 /mo · $8,290/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$596
• Net cashflow: $418

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,307

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1077 Martinstein Ave Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$2,500	$3.85	43d	1	0.47mi
17 Chimney Ln Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$2,200	$2.44	22d	1	0.55mi
1 Hemlock Dr Unit C152 Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	707	$2,550	$3.61	24d	1	0.72mi
100 Commons Way Deer Park, NY	2.0	1.0	987	$1,889	$1.91	17d	1	1.20mi
1731 N Gardiner Dr Unit 5A Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.29mi
1737 N Gardiner Dr Unit DRIVE-22B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.29mi
1739 N Gardiner Dr Unit 19B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,750	$4.40	43d	1	1.30mi
1741 N Gardiner Dr Unit 14B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.30mi
1743 N Gardiner Dr Unit 12B Bay Shore, NY	2.0	1.0	625	$2,695	$4.31	43d	1	1.31mi
104 Sutton Ct Unit 104 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1109	$3,305	$2.98	2d	1	1.40mi
500 Sutton Ct Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1084	$3,418	$3.15	1d	1	1.43mi
126 Sutton Ct Unit 126 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1109	$3,305	$2.98	2d	1	1.45mi
153 Sutton Ct Unit 153 Deer Park, NY	2.0	2.0	1060	$3,510	$3.31	2d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-02
   historical
2. 2025-11-21
   listed $530,000 Active
3. 2023-03-16
   price $199,900
4. 2022-10-17
   status Pending
5. 2022-10-02
   listed $299,900 Active
6. 2020-03-25
   status Pending
7. 2020-03-11
   status Under Contract
8. 2020-03-10
   historical
9. 2019-12-03
   listed $225,000 New
10. 2012-10-01
    soldstatus $185,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,290 · $691/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,290 · $691/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,037
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$8,290
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,723
• − Management: −$2,723
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable income: $2,289
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$549
• After-tax cash flow: $4,471/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brentwood Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3605280
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $71,840
• Composite: 32.44/100
• National rank: #5722
• State rank: #542 of 590 in NY

Livability — Baywood

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #706
• US rank: #13375

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baywood, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 68,976
• Household income: $119,603
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1516.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 33% Two or more races 13% Black 11% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 8% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 38% Other Indo-European 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -723.52%
• Current HPI: 311.4019
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+186.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Listed $530,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-16 Price Changed $199,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-17 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-02 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-25 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-11 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-10 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-03 Listed $225,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $185,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,290 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.