5135 Bent Tree Rd · East Milton, FL 32583

$179,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,280 sqft · Manufactured public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2000 1.04 ac lot Est $258k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Update

Key facts

• 1.04 acre lot
• Built 2000
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Open parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Circuit breakers and copper wiring for electric
• Home design: One-story frame home; Slab foundation; Shingle roof; Resale property; Public-maintained county road access
• Construction: Frame construction; Built as a single-level home
• Exterior features: Partial fencing; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Updated kitchen with granite counters
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 16 x 17)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathrooms updated within the last year
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning; Geothermal heat pump (horizontal closed loop)
• Interior features: Living/dining combo; Updated bathrooms; Granite counters
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $842 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $180k).
• Recommended offer: $175k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.6% in East Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#199 in FL, #3,139 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.5%/yr); 806 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.5% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($175k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $85k; list at $180k implies a 111% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,503 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.05%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,640
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8762 Bailly Rd	0.64mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-14%)	21mo	$220,000	$113	24
8762 Bailly Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,950 (-14%)	21mo	$220,000	$113	19

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.56×
• Total profit: $28,361
• Equity at exit: $26,824

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $110,247
• Equity at exit: $15,554

Cash invested: $50,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32583

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Rents YoY: 4.5%
• Active inventory: 806
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,511 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$943
• Tax from tax record: −$124 /mo · $1,483/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$527
• Net cashflow: $842

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,446

Max offer price $179,900

Occupancy floor 61%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,975
• Closing costs: $5,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8617 Tarsus Dr Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,200	$1.20	23d	1	0.90mi
8616 Tarsus Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2554	$2,995	$1.17	23d	1	0.93mi
8699 Riverstone Rd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	2500	$2,200	$0.88	23d	1	1.03mi
8795 Florida 87 Fl -87 Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1911	$5,000	$2.62	23d	1	1.04mi
8057 Fir Tree Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2107	$2,400	$1.14	23d	1	1.05mi
9330 Tara Cir Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1786	$2,000	$1.12	13d	1	1.08mi
5533 Silverbell Dr Milton, FL	5.0	3.0	2143	$2,450	$1.14	23d	1	1.15mi
4661 Carl Booker Rd Milton, FL	4.0	2.0	1870	$2,400	$1.28	23d	1	1.18mi
5199 Gaineswood Dr Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,200	$1.08	23d	1	1.21mi
8839 Longmont Way Milton, FL	4.0	3.0	2302	$2,375	$1.03	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,900 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $179,900 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $189,900 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $189,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,900 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,900 Active 18 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,900 Active 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,900 Active 16 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,900 Active 14 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $199,900
17. 2026-05-18
    price $219,900
18. 2026-05-16
    listed $229,900 Active
19. 2021-05-18
    soldstatus $85,200

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,483 · $124/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,493 · $124/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 0.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,077
• − Property taxes: −$1,483
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,411
• − Management: −$2,411
• − Depreciation: −$5,233
• Taxable income: $7,618
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,828
• After-tax cash flow: $8,273/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — East Milton

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #199
• US rank: #3139

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Milton, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 31,415
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,828
• Household income: $85,440
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 122.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 11% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.35%
• Current HPI: 301.8819
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.53%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+134.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $199,900 PARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $219,900 PARMLS
• 2026-05-16 Listed $229,900 PARMLS
• 2021-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $85,200 Public Records

Property tax history

+46.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,483 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.