5280 Brook Park Ln · Carmichael, CA 95841

$60,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 200 Days on market

Built 1969 $83/sqft · 11% above area Est $54k · 11% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• ARV discount +2.8/15.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Come make this Gem yours. Located in the desirable 55+ Brookside Mobile Home Park. 2 Bedroom, 1 bath. Open floor plan with open beam vaulted ceiling. . New roof with a 5 year warranty. Two separate car ports with storage sheds on each side. New electric chair lift installed at staircase in 2023. Refrigerator, washer/dryer included at no value/without warranty. Located near a beautiful open space area on Arcade Creek with local wildlife present. Close to freeway, shopping and more.

Key facts

• Open space area
• Storage sheds
• Parking

Tags

• OPEN BEAM VAULTED CEILING
• TWO SEPARATE CAR PORTS
• STORAGE SHEDS
• OPEN SPACE AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $877 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.2% vs local median 2.6% in Carmichael — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#471 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A-, housing B+, employment B; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.1%/yr); 83 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $415 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $52,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 67.37%
• DSCR: 4.00
• GRM: 2.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $54,276
• List price: $60,000
• Delta: 10.55%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 15 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5206 Brook Park Ln	0.12mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (-7%)	20mo	$44,480	$66	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 58.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.45×
• Total profit: $41,149
• Equity at exit: $8,946

10-year hold

• IRR: 61.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.27×
• Total profit: $88,542
• Equity at exit: $5,188

Cash invested: $16,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95841

• Rents YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 2.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,719 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$315
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$75 /mo · $900/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $877

Break-even live

Break-even rent $609

Max offer price $60,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,000
• Closing costs: $1,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	43d	1	0.19mi
5425 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	787	$1,650	$2.10	20d	5	0.27mi
5755 Callie Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	723	$2,000	$2.76	2d	13	0.29mi
5226 Hemlock St #35 Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	682	$1,650	$2.42	23d	1	0.36mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	1d	2	0.37mi
5500 Foothill Garden Ct Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,472	$1.96	1d	2	0.56mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	1d	1	0.61mi
5341 Walnut Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	1d	6	0.73mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,540	$1.68	1d	7	0.87mi
4729 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	709	$1,699	$2.39	3d	4	0.91mi
5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,725	$2.03	1d	3	0.97mi
5443 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,850	$2.25	43d	3	0.98mi
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	1d	15	0.98mi
4930 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	670	$1,450	$2.16	1d	1	0.99mi
5738 Windmill Way Carmichael, CA	1.0	1.0	652	$1,350	$2.07	2d	3	1.12mi
4728 Amber Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	730	$1,900	$2.60	19d	1	1.13mi
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	1d	15	1.14mi
4841 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	600	$1,350	$2.25	1d	1	1.15mi
4806 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0	1.0	650	$1,338	$2.06	43d	1	1.22mi
4494 Mary Lynn Ln Carmichael, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	1062	$1,950	$1.84	2d	3	1.23mi
4909 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	737	$1,750	$2.37	43d	1	1.32mi
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	23d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $60,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $60,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $60,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $60,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 195 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $60,000 Active 194 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $60,000 Active 191 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $60,000 Active 190 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $60,000 Active 189 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $60,000 Active 186 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $60,000 Active 185 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $60,000 Active 184 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $60,000 Active 183 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $60,000 Active 182 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,361
• − Property taxes: −$900
• − Insurance: −$1,098
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,650
• − Management: −$1,650
• − Depreciation: −$1,745
• Taxable income: $10,222
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,453
• After-tax cash flow: $8,068/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Carmichael

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #471
• US rank: #15996

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment B Housing B+ Health & safety C User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carmichael, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 61,440
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,500
• Household income: $61,054
• Rent vs Own: 65.3% rent · 34.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 9% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 13%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 70% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 11% Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -227.82%
• Current HPI: 369.8991
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B