1306 W Lexington St · Baltimore, MD 21223

$235,000

6 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,000 sqft · Townhouse · 14 Days on market

Built 1915 2,442 sqft lot Est $345k · 32% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT OPPORTUNITY TO OWN A 3 UNIT BUILDING FACING HISTORIC FRANKLIN SQUARE. BUILDING IS OCUPIED BY LONG TERM RESIDENT ON THE 2ND FLOOR. 1ST FLOOR AND 3RD ARE VACANT. 24HR TO 48HR NOTICE AND TENANT HAS TO BE NOTIFIED PRIOR TO ENTRY. SEP METERS FOR EACH APT. THIS IS A NICE SOLID BUILDING AND YOU CAN'T BEAT THE PRICE. IT'S ALMOST CRAZY . HOUSE IS SOLD AS IS AND THE SELLER WILL NOT MAKE ANY REPAIRS.

Key facts

• Built 1915
• Listed 14 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Ownership: Ground rent (payment semi-annually); Annual ground rent reported

Exterior

• Parking: On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Natural gas hot water; Municipal trash service
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Effective renovation in 2016; Main entrance faces south
• Construction: Brick construction; Brick/mortar foundation; Above- and below-grade structures
• Exterior features: Lot dimensions about 22 x 111; Ground rent exists (semi-annual payment)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven/range
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level; Three bedrooms on the second upper level
• Bathrooms: Four full bathrooms (all on upper levels); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning with zoned cooling
• Interior features: One fireplace with stone surround and mantel; Unfinished basement with sump pump (about 90% footprint); Basement present
• Laundry & utility: Front-loading washer; Front-loading dryer; Main-floor laundry

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $235,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$345,000) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/4.5-bath townhouse listed at $235k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $342 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $218k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $218k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 6.0% in Baltimore — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#90 in MD, #3,396 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Baltimore City Public Schools (urban): math 7% / reading 16% proficiency, ranked #24 of 24 in MD (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 79% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.5%/yr); 422 active listings in the ZIP; 1,273 units permitted in Baltimore city in 2024 (1,104 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,184/mo this rent would consume 57% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1755% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baltimore County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.5% rent growth), your $66k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask is 292% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $235k implies a 370% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,350 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.04%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.23%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $345,000
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
25 S Calhoun St	0.27mi	6/4.5	3,057 (+2%)	14mo	$365,000	$119	73
708 N Gilmor St	0.46mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,135 (+4%)	2mo	$275,000	$88	64
1612 Edmondson Ave	0.40mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,030 (+1%)	19mo	$289,900	$96	59
715 N Carrollton Ave	0.43mi	5/4.5 (-1)	3,077 (+3%)	16mo	$430,000	$140	57
721 W Lafayette Ave	0.61mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,857 (-5%)	0mo	$196,000	$69	56
737 Dolphin St	0.56mi	5/3.5 (-1)	2,580 (-14%)	3mo	$325,000	$126	39
1608 Edmondson Ave	0.39mi	5/4.0 (-1)	2,646 (-12%)	22mo	$304,000	$115	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.51% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-6,065
• Equity at exit: $35,039

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $68,946
• Equity at exit: $20,319

Cash invested: $65,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (CITY): 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City Baltimore: 12 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+58

Just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21223

• Rents YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 422
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,184 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,232
• Tax from tax record: −$53 /mo · $634/yr
• Insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $342

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,751

Max offer price $235,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,750
• Closing costs: $7,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $235,000 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $235,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $235,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $235,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $235,000 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $235,000 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $634 · $53/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,598 · $133/mo
• Expected delta: +$964/yr (+$80/mo · 152.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,202
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,164
• − Property taxes: −$634
• − Insurance: −$1,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,096
• − Management: −$2,096
• − Depreciation: −$6,836
• Taxable income: $200
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$48
• After-tax cash flow: $4,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baltimore City Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400090
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 16% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $42,108
• Composite: 10.08/100
• National rank: #9805
• State rank: #24 of 24 in MD

Livability — Baltimore

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #3396

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baltimore, MD
• County: Baltimore City · 558,601 people
• City population: 588,727
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 19,572
• Household income: $45,840
• Rent vs Own: 68.0% rent · 32.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1755.0

Population outlook (Baltimore County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 624,249 people
• By 2030: 621,541 · -0.4%
• By 2040: 609,756 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 597,249 · -4.3%
• By 2075: 552,236 · -11.5%
• By 2100: 513,934 · -17.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 72% White 16% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baltimore

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+73.0) · D 85.2% · R 12.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: 75.5pp · 2024: 73.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+73.0 2020: D+76.6 2016: D+74.6 2012: D+76.4 2008: D+75.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -97.99%
• Current HPI: 140.5836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.51%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+88.0% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Coming Soon $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-11-17 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $50,000 MRIS
• 2015-10-09 Sold (MLS) $50,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-07-17 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-06-12 Price Changed $55,900 MRIS
• 2015-06-12 Relisted — MRIS
• 2015-04-03 Pending — MRIS
• 2015-02-20 Listed $59,900 MRIS
• 2015-02-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 2015-02-20 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-20 Listed $59,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2015-02-20 Listed — MRIS
• 2006-12-21 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2006-06-05 Sold (MLS) $120,000 MRIS
• 2006-04-25 Delisted — MRIS
• 2006-04-18 Listed $125,000 MRIS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $634 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.