18404 W Papago St · Goodyear, AZ 85338

$699,999

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,686 sqft · Land · 43 Days on market

Built 2026 10,400 sqft lot $261/sqft · 15% above area Est $610k · 15% over $155/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.9/15.0
• Cash flow +0.6/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

BRAND NEW, 45' RV GARAGE + 3 CAR GARAGE, BIG BACKYARD. Home price reflects base price with selected options. Gorgeous Interior Finishes, RV Garage + 3 Car Tandem, Pavered Driveway and Walkway, Gas Gourmet Kitchen, Oversized Bedrooms, Raised Height Vanities at Bathrooms. Las Ventanas offers homeowners convenient access to shopping, dining, recreation, and major employment centers. Easy access to Interstate 10 and Loop 303 ensures a seamless commute. Residents can enjoy a centralized park with EV Chargers, shaded play structures, sports courts, outdoor amphitheater and a large, covered open air pavilion that includes picnic tables, lawn and table games, comfy lounging areas and open turf area

Key facts

• Pavered driveway
• Gas gourmet kitchen
• Outdoor amphitheater

Tags

• RV GARAGE
• PAVERED DRIVEWAY
• GAS GOURMET KITCHEN
• CENTRALIZED PARK
• OUTDOOR AMPHITHEATER
• COVERED OPEN AIR PAVILION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee of $155 covering grounds maintenance; Community amenities include pickleball courts, playground and biking/walking paths

Exterior

• Parking: 5-car garage (includes extended length, tandem layout and RV garage capability); 3 open parking spaces; RV gate and direct garage access; Garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership; New construction (builder source for building area)
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Tile roof; New construction
• Exterior features: Sprinklers in front yard; Corner lot with desert front landscaping; Block fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Kitchen island; Walk-in pantry; Pantry; Eat-in kitchen and breakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom (4 bathrooms total)
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: High-speed internet available; Double vanities; Eat-in kitchen and breakfast bar; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Pantry and walk-in pantry; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Low-emissivity dual-pane ENERGY STAR windows; Fresh air mechanical (energy-efficient feature)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside with washer/dryer hookups; ENERGY STAR-related laundry features noted

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-36k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $263k (62.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (64.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $250k (64.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 1.1% vs local median 3.0% in Goodyear — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#15 in AZ, #3,737 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Liberty Elementary District (4266) (rural): math 26% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #100 of 249 in AZ (top 40%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Las Brisas Academy (math 29% / reading 33%, grade F, #525 of 1,109 statewide, top 48%, 655 students, 47% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 1088 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $5k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $21k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($679k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $250,019 (64.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 64% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.36% ✗
• Cap rate: 1.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -18.47%
• DSCR: 0.18
• GRM: 23.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $610,488
• List price: $699,999
• Delta: 14.66%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-312,803
• Equity at exit: $104,372

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.79×
• Total profit: $-547,620
• Equity at exit: $60,523

Cash invested: $196,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85338

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 1088
• Price-to-rent: 23.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,671
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$875 /mo · $10,500/yr
• Insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$155
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $-3,017

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,320

Max offer price $263,379

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $175,000
• Closing costs: $21,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2506 S 186th Dr Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	3100	$30,000	$9.68	1d	1	0.78mi
17456 W Ashley Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.0	1762	$2,350	$1.33	1d	1	0.78mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	1d	1	1.04mi
18649 W Williams St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2822	$2,695	$0.95	4d	1	1.04mi
3150 S 180th Ln Goodyear, AZ	4.0	3.0	2083	$2,300	$1.10	43d	1	1.17mi
1613 S 174th Ln Goodyear, AZ	5.0	3.0	2999	$2,999	$1.00	1d	1	1.18mi
17430 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2277	$1,995	$0.88	1d	1	1.21mi
17421 W Papago St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.5	2522	$2,600	$1.03	14d	1	1.22mi
17415 W Yavapai St Goodyear, AZ	4.0	2.0	2277	$2,295	$1.01	16d	1	1.23mi
56 S 190th Ln Buckeye, AZ	4.0	2.5	2114	$1,995	$0.94	3d	1	1.25mi
3349 S 179th Dr Goodyear, AZ	3.0	2.5	1890	$2,095	$1.11	1d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $155 · $1,860/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,999 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,999 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,999 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,999 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $699,999 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $699,999 Active 37 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $680,999 Active 34 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $680,999 Active 33 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $680,999 Active 32 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $680,999 Active 29 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $680,999 Active 28 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $680,999 Active 27 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $674,999 Active 26 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $674,999 Active 25 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $674,999 Active 734-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,211
• − Property taxes: −$10,500
• − Insurance: −$3,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$1,860
• − Depreciation: −$20,364
• Taxable loss: −$50,232
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$12,056
• After-tax cash flow: $-24,153/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty Elementary District (4266)
• NCES district ID: 0404320
• Math proficiency: 26% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $71,731
• Composite: 27.84/100
• National rank: #6881
• State rank: #100 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Goodyear

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #15
• US rank: #3737

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Goodyear, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 107,865
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 67,451
• Household income: $101,744
• Rent vs Own: 22.7% rent · 77.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 19% Black 6% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -79.22%
• Current HPI: 252.0828
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.66%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+3.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $699,999 ARMLS
• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $680,999 ARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Listed $674,999 ARMLS