10125 Rebel Rd · Houston, TX 77016

$142,990

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,489 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 262 Days on market

Built 1963 7,501 sqft lot Est $280k · 49% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +9.3/10.0
• DSCR +7.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

A great fixer upper has a good layout. It is located in Northeast Houston, Scenic Woods subdivision. The property has a large back yard, central a/c and heat along with gas heating fixtures. Not in a flood zone and does need repairs and renovations. Great for an investor looking to fix or flip.

Key facts

• Central a/c
• Large back yard
• Gas heating fixtures

Tags

• SCENIC WOODS SUBDIVISION
• LARGE BACK YARD
• CENTRAL A/C
• GAS HEATING FIXTURES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $143k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $277 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $143k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Shadydale El (math 11% / reading 20%, grade F, #3,990 of 4,322 statewide, top 93%, 631 students, 95% FRL); Forest Brook Middle (math 12% / reading 14%, grade F, #1,609 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 613 students, 98% FRL); North Forest H S (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #1,505 of 1,632 statewide, top 92%, 974 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 71% district-wide (26 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 372 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($988 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (8.7% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (8.7% appreciation + 0.4% rent growth), your $40k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 262 days — a 12% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $125,831 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 262 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.30%
• DSCR: 1.37
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,932
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7705 Yoe St	0.16mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,388 (-7%)	3mo	$90,000	$65	72
7227 Colton St	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,510 (+1%)	0mo	$214,000	$142	70
7630 Yoe St	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,300 (-13%)	2mo	$239,000	$184	70
7904 Cassie Pine Dr	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	0mo	$281,040	$199	64
10315 Vinca Minor Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	1mo	$276,240	$196	62
7918 Cassie Pine Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	0mo	$278,290	$197	62
7914 Cassie Pine Dr	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,401 (-6%)	0mo	$274,290	$196	61
7902 Elowen Grove Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,412 (-5%)	2mo	$277,290	$196	61
7706 Tully Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	1,600 (+8%)	2mo	$300,000	$188	60
7203 Gore Dr	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,609 (+8%)	2mo	$159,000	$99	60
10643 Red Orchid Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,409 (-5%)	2mo	$240,000	$170	52
10507 Royal Oaks Dr	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,311 (-12%)	2mo	$215,000	$164	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.65% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $78,296
• Equity at exit: $115,003

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $206,651
• Equity at exit: $234,639

Cash invested: $40,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77016

• Home prices YoY: 2.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,720 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$750
• Tax from tax record: −$272 /mo · $3,265/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$361
• Net cashflow: $277

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,369

Max offer price $142,990

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,748
• Closing costs: $4,290
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	44d	1	0.26mi
7325 Boggess Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,850	$1.18	17d	1	0.26mi
7252 Parker Rd Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	916	$1,650	$1.80	44d	1	0.30mi
10314 Woodwick St Unit 1283919P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1496	$3,782	$2.53	8d	1	0.35mi
7176 Parker Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1152	$1,200	$1.04	44d	1	0.45mi
7314 Saunders Rd Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1339	$1,723	$1.29	14d	1	0.50mi
7726 Spinet St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1456	$2,375	$1.63	8d	1	0.51mi
10474 Red Orchid Dr Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1553	$1,875	$1.21	24d	1	0.56mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 235 Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$850	$0.77	44d	1	0.66mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$740	$0.75	44d	1	0.66mi
7201 Hallshire Dr Unit 222 Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	985	$700	$0.71	44d	1	0.66mi
10221 Bretton Dr Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1350	$1,700	$1.26	24d	1	0.74mi
10750 Nyla Spring St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,975	$1.32	19d	1	0.79mi
9550 N Wayside Dr Houston, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	896	$1,399	$1.56	1d	5	0.80mi
10708 Lavender Cotton Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,150	$1.53	44d	1	0.82mi
9410 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,900	$1.27	44d	1	0.84mi
8102 Rhobell St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	3.5	1567	$1,750	$1.12	44d	1	0.85mi
9324 Firnat St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	22d	1	0.89mi
8003 Alpine Bearberry Dr Houston, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1696	$2,000	$1.18	8d	1	0.90mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,525	$1.31	15d	1	0.94mi
8122 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,450	$1.25	15d	1	0.94mi
8126 Sterlingshire St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,350	$1.17	24d	1	0.95mi
9314 Sundown Dr Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,695	$1.05	15d	1	0.96mi
8213 Bigwood St Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1150	$1,595	$1.39	44d	1	1.00mi
8214 Parker Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1608	$1,560	$0.97	8d	1	1.00mi
10329 Wicklowe St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1266	$1,400	$1.11	21d	1	1.09mi
8302 Caddo Rd Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	896	$1,450	$1.62	44d	1	1.09mi
8235 Locksley Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,525	$0.95	8d	1	1.12mi
8006 Lynette St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,475	$1.05	24d	1	1.15mi
6822 Leedale St Houston, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$1,500	$1.53	44d	1	1.16mi
8314 Madera Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1608	$1,495	$0.93	24d	1	1.16mi
6823 Hanley Ln Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,610	$1.24	5d	1	1.27mi
7601 Springdale St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1224	$1,200	$0.98	15d	1	1.33mi
8346 Tidwell Rd Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$1,000	$1.02	44d	1	1.36mi
8350 Tidwell Rd Unit A Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	980	$975	$0.99	44d	1	1.37mi
7914 Laura Koppe Rd Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,850	$1.32	44d	1	1.39mi
7223 Valmont Dr Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1546	$1,595	$1.03	44d	1	1.48mi
9702 Hillis St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$1,550	$0.96	44d	1	1.49mi
8203 Woodlyn Rd Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1650	$1,650	$1.00	8d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2025-07-14
   status Pending
2. 2025-03-28
   price $142,990
3. 2025-02-13
   price $138,000
4. 2025-01-28
   price $148,000
5. 2024-10-25
   listed $168,000 Active
6. 2024-10-03
   historical
7. 2024-09-14
   listed $165,000 Active
8. 1988-01-02
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,265 · $272/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,010
• − Property taxes: −$3,265
• − Insurance: −$715
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,651
• − Management: −$1,651
• − Depreciation: −$4,160
• Taxable income: $1,184
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$284
• After-tax cash flow: $3,039/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 29,841
• Household income: $47,677
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1297.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% Hispanic / Latino 42% Two or more races 28%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 37%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.65%
• Current HPI: 315.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-13.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2025-07-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2025-03-28 Price Changed $142,990 HARMLS
• 2025-02-13 Price Changed $138,000 HARMLS
• 2025-01-28 Price Changed $148,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-25 Listed $168,000 HARMLS
• 2024-10-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-09-14 Listed $165,000 HARMLS
• 1988-01-02 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,265 · +1.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.