10701 Halfmoon Shoal Rd #203 · Estero, FL
Flood risk 3/10 · Minor
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.12%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 7/10 · Major
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $947 – $1,759
Heat risk 10/10 · Severe
- Hot days now (above 107°F)
- 7 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 30 days/yr
Wind risk 10/10 · Severe
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 99.0%
Air-quality risk 3/10 · Minor
- Unhealthy air days now
- 2 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the D grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- Schools +5.4/10.0
- Cash flow +5.0/30.0
- 1% rule +4.7/10.0
- Livability +4.0/5.0
- Condition / age +4.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.3/5.0
- DSCR +0.0/10.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$270,000
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Experience relaxed Florida living in this inviting 2nd-floor garden condo located in the sought-after community of Lighthouse Bay. Filled with natural light and cheerful coastal-inspired accents in shades of blue, green, and yellow, this 2-bedroom plus den, 2-bath residence offers a warm and welcoming atmosphere. A detached covered carport adds everyday convenience, while the den features stylish wood and glass sliding barn doors, creating the perfect flex space for guests, a home office, or media room. Comfortable carpeting extends throughout the main living spaces, with tile flooring in the kitchen and bathrooms for easy maintenance.
Key facts
- Private lanai access
- Tile flooring
- Walk-in shower
Tags
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $270k. Condition is rated good.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $-637 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
- To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $178k (34.1% below list).
- To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (3.2% below list).
- Recommended offer: $178k (34.1% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 79/100 on livability (#149 in FL, #2,242 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
- Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Zoned schools: Pinewoods Elementary School (math 81% / reading 74%, grade A, #163 of 2,144 statewide, top 8%, 1,089 students, 25% FRL); Lexington Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 1,138 students, 44% FRL); South Fort Myers High School (math 23% / reading 30%, grade F, #489 of 667 statewide, top 74%, 1,917 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 39% FRL vs 57% district-wide (18 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
- Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 1001 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
- This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($91k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: HOA is 32% of rent.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
- It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
- What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
- Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
- Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 0.97% ✗
- Cap rate
- 3.46%
- Cash-on-cash
- -10.11%
- DSCR
- 0.55
- GRM
- 8.6
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $377,130
- List price
- $270,000
- Delta
- -28.41%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23810 Costa Del Sol Rd #203 | 0.36mi | 2/2.0 | 1,276 (+1%) | 5mo | $237,500 | $186 | 78 |
| 23731 Old Port Rd #103 | 0.08mi | 2/2.0 | 1,103 (-13%) | 0mo | $244,900 | $222 | 74 |
| 23741 Old Port Rd #103 | 0.10mi | 2/2.0 | 1,100 (-13%) | 3mo | $299,000 | $272 | 70 |
| 10911 Oak Island Rd #201 | 0.30mi | 2/2.0 | 1,554 (+23%) | 3mo | $375,000 | $241 | 58 |
| 9261 Spring Run Blvd #2409 | 1.48mi | 2/2.0 | 1,310 (+3%) | 4mo | $425,000 | $324 | 56 |
| 9209 Spring Run Blvd #2003 | 1.49mi | 2/2.0 | 1,333 (+5%) | 4mo | $270,000 | $203 | 53 |
| 9189 Spring Run Blvd #1903 | 1.47mi | 2/2.0 | 1,333 (+5%) | 7mo | $393,000 | $295 | 50 |
| 23506 Sandycreek Ter #108 | 1.25mi | 2/2.0 | 1,368 (+8%) | 13mo | $340,000 | $249 | 41 |
| 23511 Sandycreek Ter #1109 | 1.23mi | 2/2.0 | 1,513 (+19%) | 3mo | $350,000 | $231 | 37 |
| 9175 Spring Run Blvd #1803 | 1.44mi | 2/2.0 | 1,480 (+17%) | 4mo | $380,000 | $257 | 37 |
| 23576 Sandycreek Ter #1501 | 1.35mi | 2/2.0 | 1,458 (+15%) | 9mo | $450,000 | $309 | 32 |
| 9049 Spring Run Blvd | 1.14mi | 3/2.0 (+1) | 1,478 (+17%) | 4mo | $535,000 | $362 | 32 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -39.8%
- Equity multiple
- -0.21×
- Total profit
- $-91,438
- Equity at exit
- $40,258
- IRR
- —
- Equity multiple
- -1.11×
- Total profit
- $-159,222
- Equity at exit
- $23,345
Cash invested: $75,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
- State Florida
- 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
Active competition Active MLS
- For sale now
- 3 active · 2 under contract
- Median asking
- $429,000 ($283/sqft)
- Median days on market
- 134 d
- This list price
- lowest-priced of the active set
- ARV vs active asking
- +5.1% vs current asking $/sqft
Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.
ZIP-level market 34135
- Rents YoY
- -0.6%
- Active inventory
- 1001
- Price-to-rent
- 8.6×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $2,612 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$1,416
- Tax est. 1.5%
- −$338 /mo · $4,050/yr
- Insurance
- −$112
- HOA
- −$835
- Lot rent
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$549
- Net cashflow
- $-637
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $-451 | -5% $-544 | +0% $-637 | +5% $-730 | +10% $-824 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $-844 | -5% $-740 | +0% $-637 | +5% $-534 | +10% $-431 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $-501 | -0.5pp $-569 | base $-637 | +0.5pp $-707 | +1.0pp $-778 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $67,500
- Closing costs
- $8,100
- Club membership (one-time)
- —
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Cash invested
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Rent comps 14 comps
| Address | Beds | Baths | Sqft | Rent | $/sqft | DOM | Units | Dist |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10701 Halfmoon Shoal Rd #9204 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1292 | $5,700 | $4.41 | 32d | 1 | 0.03mi |
| 23501 Wisteria Pointe Dr #1206 Estero, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1560 | $7,000 | $4.49 | 72d | 1 | 0.25mi |
| 23810 Marbella Bay Rd #102 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1103 | $5,000 | $4.53 | 72d | 1 | 0.35mi |
| 23821 Marbella Bay Rd Ofc Season Bonita Springs, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1279 | $2,500 | $1.95 | 72d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 23821 Marbella Bay Rd #102 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1279 | $5,750 | $4.50 | 72d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 10910 Santa Margherita Rd #102 Estero, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1279 | $2,200 | $1.72 | 72d | 1 | 0.37mi |
| 23810 Costa del Sol Rd #203 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1276 | $2,400 | $1.88 | 65d | 1 | 0.39mi |
| 10911 Santa Margherita Rd #102 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1279 | $2,800 | $2.19 | 72d | 1 | 0.40mi |
| 23785 Clear Spring Ct #2305 Estero, FL | 3.0 | 2.0 | 1811 | $7,500 | $4.14 | 72d | 1 | 0.58mi |
| 9030 Spring Run Blvd #508 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1333 | $6,500 | $4.88 | 72d | 1 | 1.08mi |
| 23526 Sandycreek Ter #304 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1368 | $6,500 | $4.75 | 72d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 23541 Sandycreek Ter #806 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1700 | $6,000 | $3.53 | 72d | 1 | 1.29mi |
| 23591 Sandycreek Ter #1006 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1209 | $6,000 | $4.96 | 72d | 1 | 1.32mi |
| 23601 Sandycreek Ter #903 Estero, FL | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1246 | $6,000 | $4.82 | 72d | 1 | 1.35mi |
Property features AI
Finance
- Other
- Part of Lighthouse Bay at The Brooks communityCondo documents cited for measurements and restrictions include architectural and deeded restrictions; no commercial use and no RVs allowed
- Financial info
- Condo fee paid quarterly
- HOA & community
- Mandatory HOA (professional management)Quarterly condo feeHOA maintenance covers cable, insurance, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, legal/accounting, manager, master association fee, exterior pest control, repairs, reserves, security, sewer, street lights, street maintenance, trash removal, and waterCommunity amenities include community pool and spa, exercise room, tennis and pickleball courts, basketball, beach club access, lakefront beach, fishing pier, library, community room, sauna, bike/jog paths, BBQ/picnic areas, sidewalks, streetlights, and underground utilitiesTotal annual recurring HOA fees listed
Exterior
- Parking
- Covered, paved parkingDetached 1-car carport
- Security
- Gated communityCommunity includes security in HOA maintenance
- Utilities
- Central waterCentral sewerCable available
- Home design
- Residential garden apartment in a low-rise building (1–3 stories)Built in 2001Rear exposure faces southUnit/lot number 203
- Construction
- Concrete block construction
- Exterior features
- Stucco exteriorMetal roofSingle-hung and sliding windowsElectric storm shuttersGated communityLakefront with water feature viewIrrigation from lake/canal and reclaimed waterPaved road access
Interior
- Kitchen
- PantryDishwasherDisposalMicrowaveRangeSelf-cleaning ovenRefrigerator/FreezerBreakfast barFormal dining area
- Bedrooms
- 2 bedrooms plus denSplit bedroom floor plan
- Flooring
- CarpetTile
- Bathrooms
- 2 full bathroomsMaster bathroom with dual sinks and shower (no tub)
- Heating & cooling
- Central electric heatCentral electric coolingCeiling fans
- Interior features
- Cable prewire and high-speed internet availablePantrySmoke detectorsVolume ceilingsWalk-in closetTurnkey furnishedScreened lanai/porch
- Laundry & utility
- Washer and dryer in residenceLaundry area in unit
HOA detail $835/mo · $10,020/yr condo
- Assessments
- None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.
Listing history 48 events
-
2026-08-08days on market $270,000 Active 90 DOM
-
2026-08-07days on market $270,000 Active 89 DOM
-
2026-08-06days on market $270,000 Active 88 DOM
-
2026-08-05days on market $270,000 Active 87 DOM
-
2026-08-04days on market $270,000 Active 86 DOM
-
2026-08-03days on market $270,000 Active 85 DOM
-
2026-07-30days on market $270,000 Active 80 DOM
-
2026-07-28days on market $270,000 Active 79 DOM
-
2026-07-26days on market $270,000 Active 77 DOM
-
2026-07-24days on market $270,000 Active 75 DOM
-
2026-07-23days on market $270,000 Active 74 DOM
-
2026-07-22days on market $270,000 Active 73 DOM
-
2026-07-21days on market $270,000 Active 72 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $270,000 Active 69 DOM
-
2026-07-18days on market $270,000 Active 68 DOM
-
2026-07-16days on market $270,000 Active 67 DOM
-
2026-07-15days on market $270,000 Active 66 DOM
-
2026-07-14days on market $270,000 Active 65 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $270,000 Active 64 DOM
-
2026-07-13days on market $270,000 Active 63 DOM
-
2026-07-12days on market $270,000 Active 62 DOM
-
2026-07-10days on market $270,000 Active 61 DOM
-
2026-07-09days on market $270,000 Active 60 DOM
-
2026-07-07days on market $270,000 Active 58 DOM
-
2026-07-06days on market $270,000 Active 57 DOM
-
2026-07-05days on market $270,000 Active 56 DOM
-
2026-07-02days on market $270,000 Active 53 DOM
-
2026-07-01days on market $270,000 Active 52 DOM
-
2026-06-30days on market $270,000 Active 51 DOM
-
2026-06-29days on market $270,000 Active 50 DOM
-
2026-06-28days on market $270,000 Active 49 DOM
-
2026-06-27days on market $270,000 Active 48 DOM
-
2026-06-25days on market $270,000 Active 45 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $270,000 Active 43 DOM
-
2026-06-22days on market $270,000 Active 42 DOM
-
2026-06-17days on market $270,000 Active 38 DOM
-
2026-06-16days on market $270,000 Active 37 DOM
-
2026-06-15days on market $270,000 Active 36 DOM
-
2026-06-13days on market $270,000 Active 34 DOM
-
2026-06-10days on market $270,000 Active 31 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $270,000 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $270,000 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $270,000 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-03days on market $270,000 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $270,000 Active 23 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $270,000 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $270,000 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-05-10$270,000 Active
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 12% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 7/10 Severe
- Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $31,347
- − Mortgage interest
- −$15,124
- − Property taxes
- −$4,050
- − Insurance
- −$1,350
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$2,508
- − Management
- −$2,508
- − HOA
- −$10,020
- − Depreciation
- −$7,855
- Taxable loss
- −$12,067
- Est. tax savings @ 24.0%
- +$2,896
- After-tax cash flow
- $-4,750/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos
This 2nd-floor garden condo in Lighthouse Bay is in good condition with minimal repairs needed. Fresh paint and deep cleaning would significantly enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
Value-add opportunities
- Both Paint walls — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
- Both Deep clean carpets — Clean carpets improve comfort and reduce allergens ↑
- Both Replace blinds — New blinds can improve privacy and energy efficiency ↑
ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.
Zoned Schools
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Lee
- NCES district ID
- 1201080
- Math proficiency
- 47% ▼ -11.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 50% ▼ -4.00%
- Median HH income
- $49,518
- Composite
- 41.49/100
- National rank
- #3458
- State rank
- #42 of 73 in FL
Livability — Estero
- Score
- 79/100
- State rank
- #149
- US rank
- #2242
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Estero, FL
- County
- Lee County · 871,946 people
- City population
- 31,926
- Metro
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
- Population (ZIP)
- 48,252
- Household income
- $91,380
- Rent vs Own
- Severe rent burden
- 17% of renters
Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 871,946 people
- By 2030
- 955,468 · +9.6%
- By 2040
- 1,113,587 · +27.7%
- By 2050
- 1,256,891 · +44.1%
- By 2075
- 1,560,270 · +78.9%
- By 2100
- 1,726,848 · +98.0%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (69%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 69% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 13% Native American 3% Black 2%
- Hispanic origin (detail)
- Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
- Foreign-born
- 22% · Canada, Jamaica
- Languages at home
- 74% English-only · Spanish 21% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Lee
- 2024 margin
- Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -188.86%
- Current HPI
- 243.4153
- Rent YoY
- ▼ -0.61%
- Metro
- Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 3.28%
- F500 in state
- 36
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial Technology | 2 | $29B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $17B |
|
||
| Retail | 1 | $60B |
|
||
| Technology Distribution | 1 | $58B |
|
||
| Homebuilding | 1 | $35B |
|
||
| Technology Manufacturing | 1 | $35B |
|
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Price history
1 event — show timeline
- 2026-05-10 Listed $270,000 NAPLESMLS
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…