1821 E 1st Pl · Lubbock, TX 79403

$40,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 915 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 97 Days on market

Built 1958 6,720 sqft lot $44/sqft · 52% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* Investor special! * This is a prime opportunity for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a property full of potential. Whether you're searching for your next rental, flip, or value-add project, this property offers the kind of opportunity that is hard to overlook. Even better, it can be purchased individually or as part of a package deal with two additional properties (2417 E 29th St & 5425 Ave B) at a discounted price. Conveniently located in Lubbock, this property is ideal for investors seeking flexibility, upside, and the advantage of bundled pricing.

Key facts

• 6,720 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1958

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($965 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $277 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.5% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 97 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,400 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 97 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 51.60%
• DSCR: 3.30
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,500
• List price: $40,000
• Delta: -51.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.52% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.04×
• Total profit: $22,795
• Equity at exit: $5,964

10-year hold

• IRR: 52.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $53,779
• Equity at exit: $3,458

Cash invested: $11,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79403

• Home prices YoY: -9.0%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $965 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$54 /mo · $650/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $355

Max offer price $40,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $10,000
• Closing costs: $1,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1828 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1011	$695	$0.69	21d	1	0.09mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$695	$0.63	21d	1	0.10mi
1802 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	4.0	1.0	1096	$875	$0.80	43d	1	0.10mi
1711 E 1st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1124	$900	$0.80	21d	1	0.20mi
2726 E 2nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	21d	1	0.38mi
1730 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1015	$695	$0.68	43d	1	0.41mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit A Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	21d	1	0.41mi
1726 E Dartmouth St Unit B Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,000	$0.91	43d	1	0.41mi
1918 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,080	$1.05	21d	1	0.42mi
2608 E Colgate St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	990	$900	$0.91	43d	1	0.46mi
2815 E 2nd St Apt 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	750	$625	$0.83	13d	1	0.48mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$695	$0.85	21d	1	0.49mi
312 Beech Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	816	$800	$0.98	43d	1	0.49mi
808 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$695	$0.84	21d	1	0.61mi
3016 E 3rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	978	$695	$0.71	21d	1	0.67mi
824 Vanda Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	832	$750	$0.90	43d	1	0.69mi
924 E Emory St Lubbock, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$1,008	$1.17	13d	8	0.69mi
2226 E Main St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,150	$1.05	43d	1	0.77mi
3116 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	21d	1	0.80mi
2117 E Broadway Unit 1 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	43d	1	0.80mi
2123 E Broadway Unit 2 Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	963	$950	$0.99	21d	1	0.80mi
3118 E Cornell St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1125	$1,150	$1.02	21d	1	0.80mi
804 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,049	$1.02	13d	1	0.91mi
1014 David Ave Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,030	$1.00	13d	1	0.92mi
1903 E 15th St Unit B Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	950	$1,075	$1.13	13d	1	1.03mi
506 E Municipal Dr Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1065	$900	$0.85	43d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $40,000 Active 97 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $40,000 Active 96 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $40,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $40,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $40,000 Active 92 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $40,000 Active 91 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $40,000 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $40,000 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $40,000 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $40,000 Active 86 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $40,000 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $40,000 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $40,000 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $40,000 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $40,000 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $40,000 Active 78 DOM
17. 2026-03-13
    listed $40,000 Active 581-char remark

    Show marketing remark (581 chars)

    * Investor special! * This is a prime opportunity for investors looking to expand their portfolio with a property full of potential. Whether you're searching for your next rental, flip, or value-add project, this property offers the kind of opportunity that is hard to overlook. Even better, it can be purchased individually or as part of a package deal with two additional properties (2417 E 29th St & 5425 Ave B) at a discounted price. Conveniently located in Lubbock, this property is ideal for investors seeking flexibility, upside, and the advantage of bundled pricing.

18. 1991-08-01
    soldstatus
19. 1983-01-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $650 · $54/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $732 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$82/yr (+$7/mo · 12.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,241
• − Property taxes: −$650
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$926
• − Management: −$926
• − Depreciation: −$1,164
• Taxable income: $5,471
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,313
• After-tax cash flow: $4,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 16,089
• Household income: $47,907
• Rent vs Own: 39.7% rent · 60.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 612.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 26% Black 23% Two or more races 16% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.69%
• Current HPI: 178.9297
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.52%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-13 Listed $40,000 LARMLS
• 1991-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1983-01-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $650 · -47.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.