Azalea Plan · Mesquite, TX 75149

$276,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily · 532 Days on market

↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 531 days

🏗️ New construction. The $276,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $311,379.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $277k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-366 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $258k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $226k (18.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $226k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#358 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools C-, crime F, commute F.
• Mesquite ISD (suburban): math 35% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #536 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 345 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 532 days — a 12% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $226,096 (18.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 532 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $311,379
• List price: $276,990
• Delta: -11.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1609 Quapaw Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,510 (0%)	4mo	$314,990	$209	88
2521 Breakaway Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,571 (+4%)	5mo	$324,990	$207	83
1904 Osage Trl	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,498 (-1%)	5mo	$318,480	$213	83
2505 Russell Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+9%)	6mo	$309,990	$188	71
2516 Mcnally Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,649 (+9%)	5mo	$314,990	$191	70
1844 Osage Trl	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,695 (+12%)	5mo	$319,990	$189	67
2528 Breakaway Dr	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	5mo	$339,990	$200	66
2017 Paradise Valley Dr	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	1mo	$339,834	$200	65
2516 Russell Way	0.21mi	3/2.5	1,699 (+12%)	3mo	$314,990	$185	65
2321 Baretta Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-7%)	5mo	$243,500	$173	50
1306 Caladium Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,568 (+4%)	5mo	$265,000	$169	48
1434 Caladium Dr	0.69mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,705 (+13%)	2mo	$289,000	$170	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -28.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-79,869
• Equity at exit: $46,428

10-year hold

• IRR: -41.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.41×
• Total profit: $-123,286
• Equity at exit: $26,922

Cash invested: $87,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75149

• Home prices YoY: -27.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 345
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,261 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,633
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$389 /mo · $4,671/yr
• Insurance: −$130
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$475
• Net cashflow: $-366

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,724

Max offer price $258,460

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-151	-5% $-258	+0% $-366	+5% $-473	+10% $-581
Rent	-10% $-544	-5% $-455	+0% $-366	+5% $-276	+10% $-187
Rate	-1.0pp $-209	-0.5pp $-287	base $-366	+0.5pp $-446	+1.0pp $-528

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $77,845
• Closing costs: $9,341
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1729 Hazer Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,400	$1.60	22d	1	0.12mi
1809 Osage Trl Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2022	$2,599	$1.29	19d	1	0.14mi
2208 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,955	$1.39	45d	1	0.66mi
2621 Ash Crk Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1843	$2,299	$1.25	45d	1	0.68mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	23d	1	0.68mi
1217 Buckeye Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,995	$1.15	45d	1	0.68mi
2345 Browning Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1384	$3,500	$2.53	0d	1	0.74mi
928 Winchester Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1426	$2,650	$1.86	0d	1	0.75mi
924 Hillrise Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1937	$2,100	$1.08	0d	1	0.76mi
908 Winchester Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,049	$1.48	3d	1	0.78mi
2433 Baretta Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$2,091	$1.49	23d	1	0.82mi
2004 Poppy Way Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,700	$1.72	45d	1	0.82mi
1601 Hillwood Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1284	$2,095	$1.63	9d	1	0.83mi
1601 Chapman Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,845	$1.41	14d	1	0.92mi
2812 Clearmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1837	$2,800	$1.52	0d	1	0.97mi
1104 Ashland Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.0	1250	$1,625	$1.30	9d	1	1.03mi
612 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,746	$1.22	45d	1	1.07mi
608 Coolwood Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1272	$1,900	$1.49	45d	1	1.08mi
505 Picketts Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1406	$1,950	$1.39	45d	1	1.10mi
2600 Waterloo Ln Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1460	$1,900	$1.30	45d	1	1.10mi
711 Darnel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1370	$1,939	$1.42	9d	1	1.10mi
450 Appomattox Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1567	$1,930	$1.23	45d	1	1.18mi
1115 Casa Dr Mesquite, TX	2.0	2.0	1215	$1,850	$1.52	25d	1	1.19mi
2302 Highbank Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1783	$2,145	$1.20	45d	1	1.19mi
1233 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1749	$2,289	$1.31	9d	1	1.20mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$3,075	$1.54	14d	1	1.20mi
1229 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.5	1993	$2,900	$1.46	0d	1	1.20mi
815 Valleycreek Rd Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1788	$2,500	$1.40	45d	1	1.24mi
1521 Cool Springs Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1924	$2,295	$1.19	25d	1	1.28mi
1013 Clear Creek Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1887	$2,399	$1.27	4d	1	1.28mi
1615 Ariel Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	2002	$3,200	$1.60	0d	1	1.30mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	25d	1	1.30mi
2314 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.0	1995	$2,600	$1.30	0d	1	1.30mi
2321 Bent Brook Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,460	$1.21	9d	1	1.34mi
2338 Stillwater Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1765	$2,300	$1.30	22d	1	1.37mi
1411 Springwood Dr Mesquite, TX	4.0	2.5	1874	$2,081	$1.11	45d	1	1.39mi
1617 Savannah St Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,985	$1.52	6d	1	1.39mi
1513 Colborne Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1805	$2,045	$1.13	45d	1	1.41mi
1417 Stillmeadow Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	1.5	1251	$2,800	$2.24	0d	1	1.41mi
2524 Park Valley Dr Mesquite, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$2,150	$1.58	0d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $276,990 Active 532 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $276,990 Active 529 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $276,990 Active 528 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $276,990 Active 527 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $276,990 Active 526 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,990 Active 524 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $276,990 Active 523 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $276,990 Active 520 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $276,990 Active 519 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $276,990 Active 518 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $276,990 Active 515 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $276,990 Active 514 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $276,990 Active 513 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $276,990 Active 512 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $276,990 Active 511 DOM
16. 2026-01-08
    price $276,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

17. 2026-01-02
    price $275,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

18. 2025-08-01
    price $273,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

19. 2025-07-10
    price $272,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

20. 2025-06-17
    price $271,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

21. 2025-05-08
    price $270,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

22. 2025-01-31
    price $269,990 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

23. 2025-01-05
    listed $299,990 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    The Azalea home offers low-maintenance living in a one-story design in our exclusive new Smart Series. This floorplan features 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, and 1,510-1,558 square feet of functional living space with room to grow in structural options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,132
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,442
• − Property taxes: −$4,671
• − Insurance: −$1,557
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,171
• − Management: −$2,171
• − Depreciation: −$9,058
• Taxable loss: −$9,937
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,385
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,004/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mesquite ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830390
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,372
• Composite: 29.06/100
• National rank: #6606
• State rank: #536 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mesquite

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #7743

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mesquite, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 150,788
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 58,262
• Household income: $70,774
• Rent vs Own: 33.2% rent · 66.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 2266.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 25% Two or more races 21% Black 20% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Iranian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 58% English-only · Spanish 39% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -130.12%
• Current HPI: 345.6606
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.22%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-7.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $276,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-02 Price Changed $275,990 Zillow
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $273,990 Zillow
• 2025-07-10 Price Changed $272,990 Zillow
• 2025-06-17 Price Changed $271,990 Zillow
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $270,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-31 Price Changed $269,990 Zillow
• 2025-01-05 Listed $299,990 Zillow