29 Hadley Rd · Lake Luzerne, NY 12878

$125,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,208 sqft · SingleFamily · 253 Days on market

Built 1930 0.57 ac lot $103/sqft · 50% below area Est $249k · 50% under ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in the small town of Stony Creek, this home is ready for it's next family to bring new life into it. With some TLC, it holds incredible potential. Sitting on beautiful property with a large yard, there's plenty of room to relax, play or garden. Located in a charming small town known for its tight-knit welcoming community, you're also just a short drive to Lake George, Warrensburg and the highway. Enjoy nearby outdoor recreation. Large town park is within walking distance, swim, fish, canoeing and plenty of other activities are right at your door step. Major updates already completed, included is a new leachfield, hot water boiler installed in 2020, and just recently a new panel box! With a flexible layout that can be converted into a multi-family home-and the town currently is in need of apartments-this property offers both comfort and excellent investment potential.

Key facts

• Single family home
• New leach field
• New hot water boiler

Tags

• SINGLE FAMILY HOME
• HEART OF STONY CREEK
• LARGE TOWN PARK
• NEW LEACH FIELD
• NEW HOT WATER BOILER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $30 ($354/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $116k (7.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $110k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#682 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hadley-Luzerne Central School District (rural): math 41% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #396 of 590 in NY (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (8.4% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (8.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 253 days — a 12% lower offer ($110k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1930 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $110,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 253 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1930 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.01%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,119
• List price: $125,000
• Delta: -49.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 O'connor Rd	0.13mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,200 (-1%)	16mo	$55,000	$46	75

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.62×
• Total profit: $56,708
• Equity at exit: $98,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 5.67×
• Total profit: $163,417
• Equity at exit: $198,933

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12878

• Home prices YoY: 5.1%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,162 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$181 /mo · $2,169/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$244
• Net cashflow: $30

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,125

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 253 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 252 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 251 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 250 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 248 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $125,000 Active 247 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 244 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 243 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $125,000 Active 242 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 240 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $135,000 Active 238 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $135,000 Active 237 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $135,000 Active 236 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $135,000 Active 235 DOM
15. 2025-11-30
    price $135,000 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Nestled in the small town of Stony Creek, this home is ready for it's next family to bring new life into it. With some TLC, it holds incredible potential. Sitting on beautiful property with a large yard, there's plenty of room to relax, play or garden. Located in a charming small town known for its tight-knit welcoming community, you're also just a short drive to Lake George, Warrensburg and the highway. Enjoy nearby outdoor recreation. Large town park is within walking distance, swim, fish, canoeing and plenty of other activities are right at your door step. Major updates already completed, included is a new leachfield, hot water boiler installed in 2020, and just recently a new panel box! With a flexible layout that can be converted into a multi-family home-and the town currently is in need of apartments-this property offers both comfort and excellent investment potential.

16. 2025-10-30
    price $140,000 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Nestled in the small town of Stony Creek, this home is ready for it's next family to bring new life into it. With some TLC, it holds incredible potential. Sitting on beautiful property with a large yard, there's plenty of room to relax, play or garden. Located in a charming small town known for its tight-knit welcoming community, you're also just a short drive to Lake George, Warrensburg and the highway. Enjoy nearby outdoor recreation. Large town park is within walking distance, swim, fish, canoeing and plenty of other activities are right at your door step. Major updates already completed, included is a new leachfield, hot water boiler installed in 2020, and just recently a new panel box! With a flexible layout that can be converted into a multi-family home-and the town currently is in need of apartments-this property offers both comfort and excellent investment potential.

17. 2025-10-07
    listed $145,000 Active 894-char remark

    Show marketing remark (894 chars)

    Nestled in the small town of Stony Creek, this home is ready for it's next family to bring new life into it. With some TLC, it holds incredible potential. Sitting on beautiful property with a large yard, there's plenty of room to relax, play or garden. Located in a charming small town known for its tight-knit welcoming community, you're also just a short drive to Lake George, Warrensburg and the highway. Enjoy nearby outdoor recreation. Large town park is within walking distance, swim, fish, canoeing and plenty of other activities are right at your door step. Major updates already completed, included is a new leachfield, hot water boiler installed in 2020, and just recently a new panel box! With a flexible layout that can be converted into a multi-family home-and the town currently is in need of apartments-this property offers both comfort and excellent investment potential.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,169 · $181/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,169 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥92°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,943
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$2,169
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,115
• − Management: −$1,115
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable loss: −$1,721
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$413
• After-tax cash flow: $767/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hadley-Luzerne Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3613110
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $52,974
• Composite: 42.18/100
• National rank: #3292
• State rank: #396 of 590 in NY

Livability — Lake Luzerne

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #682
• US rank: #12851

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 768

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,372 people
• By 2030: 60,491 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 55,616 · -10.8%
• By 2050: 50,437 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 40,843 · -34.5%
• By 2100: 31,159 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.9pp toward R · 2008: 2.6pp · 2024: -4.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+4.2 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+10.6 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.41%
• Current HPI: 173.5945
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-6.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $135,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-30 Price Changed $140,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-07 Listed $145,000 Global MLS

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,169 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.