3991 Windward Passage Cir #202 · Bonita Springs, FL 34134

$314,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,478 sqft · Condo public records · 51 Days on market

Built 1989 $842/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious two bedroom plus den, two bath residence is West of US 41 in the gated community of Vanderbilt Lakes. Only minutes to the beach, shopping and fine dining. A beautifully maintained 2nd floor end-unit features an open floor plan with volume ceilings, 2 large walk-in closets, custom built-in cabinetry for extra storage, and a large screened lanai with roll down storm shutters. Covered parking outside the front door. Just steps to the tennis court and 1 of 2 pristine community pools available. A definite must see!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Covered parking
• Pool views

Tags

• POOL VIEWS
• STORM SHUTTERS
• COVERED PARKING
• EXTRA STORAGE
• GATED COMMUNITY
• TWO POOLS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Part of a complex with 96 units; 4 units in the building; 2 units per floor; single-story building
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Professional management; Condo fee $2,400 quarterly; Master HOA fee $253 semi-annually; Maintenance covers insurance, lawn/land maintenance, manager, exterior pest control, reserves, sewer; Total annual recurring fees $10,106; Total one-time fees $750

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport (1 space)
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Low-rise building (1-3 stories); End-unit; Rear exposure faces north; Located in Vanderbilt Lakes development (Bermuda Cays sub-condo)
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Single-hung windows; Built in 1989
• Exterior features: Tennis court; Community pool and spa/hot tub (community amenities); Pickleball courts (community amenities); Streetlights; Underground utilities; Central irrigation

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms plus den
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bathroom with shower only
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Pantry; Vaulted ceiling; Walk-in closet; Dining area incorporated with living room; Den (study); Laundry in residence; Turnkey furnished; Split bedroom floor plan
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $314k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $495 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $314k).
• Recommended offer: $305k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.7% in Bonita Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#428 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: schools C-, cost of living C-, health & safety D.
• Lee (suburban): math 47% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #42 of 73 in FL (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.9%/yr); 699 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 15,411 units permitted in Lee County in 2024 (4,686 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($131k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lee County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 51 days — a 3% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 13y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $250k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→30/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $304,580 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 51 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.75%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.85% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-19,481
• Equity at exit: $46,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $23,145
• Equity at exit: $27,149

Cash invested: $87,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34134

• Rents YoY: 2.9%
• Active inventory: 699
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,647
• Tax from tax record: −$335 /mo · $4,016/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$842
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$917
• Net cashflow: $495

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,739

Max offer price $314,000

Occupancy floor 84%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,500
• Closing costs: $9,420
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3930 Windward Passage Cir #202 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1478	$1,900	$1.29	16d	1	0.04mi
3951 Windward Passage Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1397	$5,200	$3.72	23d	1	0.04mi
3941 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.07mi
3921 Leeward Passage Ct #203 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1204	$3,500	$2.91	23d	1	0.10mi
28712 Carmel Way Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1626	$9,250	$5.69	23d	1	0.15mi
28720 Bermuda Bay Way #205 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1097	$2,200	$2.01	14d	1	0.19mi
62 8th St Unit 1073526P Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1593	$5,435	$3.41	23d	1	0.32mi
74 7th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1124	$3,150	$2.80	23d	1	0.32mi
28940 Bermuda Pointe Cir #102 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$5,500	$5.11	23d	1	0.32mi
60 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1860	$11,400	$6.13	23d	1	0.40mi
64 4th St Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1231	$3,700	$3.01	23d	2	0.40mi
28178 Sunset Dr Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$2,550	$2.72	21d	1	0.42mi
28327 Hidden Lake Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$8,950	$5.71	23d	1	0.45mi
11 2nd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1595	$9,500	$5.96	23d	1	0.49mi
75 3rd St Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	1630	$8,900	$5.46	23d	1	0.52mi
28650 Carriage Home Dr Unit 1049692P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1528	$3,980	$2.60	16d	1	0.53mi
999 E Valley Dr Unit 1073522P Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.5	1668	$9,929	$5.95	21d	1	0.55mi
28611 Carriage Home Dr #101 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1433	$2,550	$1.78	23d	1	0.55mi
27921 Bonita Village Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1429	$3,745	$2.62	23d	3	0.65mi
28700 Trails Edge Blvd Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1458	$2,175	$1.49	3d	2	0.73mi
3503 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	3.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	23d	1	0.76mi
3463 Brink Cir Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1000	$2,150	$2.15	23d	1	0.78mi
4212 Rita Ln Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$1,475	$1.03	23d	1	0.82mi
4412 Vanda Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1800	$2,800	$1.56	23d	1	0.83mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln #102 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,300	$4.90	14d	1	0.85mi
15400 Cedarwood Ln Unit 1-201 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$6,000	$4.67	23d	1	0.85mi
28790 Versol Dr Bonita Springs, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1075	$3,391	$3.15	1d	19	0.89mi
15415 Cedarwood Ln Unit 3 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$2,200	$1.54	14d	1	0.93mi
27594 Shore Dr Bonita Springs, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$5,500	$3.86	23d	1	0.94mi
4426 Little Hickory Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	979	$1,900	$1.94	19d	1	0.94mi
1345 Sweetwater Cv #203 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$4,800	$3.75	23d	1	0.94mi
1340 Sweetwater Cv #103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,000	$3.91	23d	1	0.95mi
285 Naples Cove Dr #1103 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1267	$2,475	$1.95	23d	1	0.95mi
1360 Sweetwater Cv #202 Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1279	$5,500	$4.30	23d	1	0.97mi
27625 Riverdale Ln Unit 27627 Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	960	$1,795	$1.87	23d	1	0.98mi
290 Naples Cove Dr Naples, FL	2.0	2.0	1327	$3,400	$2.56	23d	3	0.98mi
270 Naples Cove Dr #3506 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1475	$2,500	$1.69	21d	1	0.98mi
1415 Sweetwater Cv #104 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,500	$4.71	23d	1	0.98mi
4851 Gary Rd Bonita Springs, FL	2.0	1.0	1281	$2,250	$1.76	23d	1	0.99mi
1405 Sweetwater Cv #204 Naples, FL	3.0	2.0	1381	$6,000	$4.34	14d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $842 · $10,104/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $314,000 Active 51 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   days on market $319,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $319,000 Active 44 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,000 Active 43 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $319,000 Active 42 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $319,000 Active 37 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $319,000 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $319,000 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $319,000 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-04-27
    listed $319,000 Active
14. 2026-03-02
    soldstatus $250,000
15. 2026-02-01
    price $289,000
16. 2025-12-11
    price $310,000
17. 2025-11-04
    price $320,000
18. 2014-04-17
    soldstatus $188,500
19. 2014-04-04
    price $191,500 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    This spacious two bedroom plus den, two bath residence is West of US 41 in the gated community of Vanderbilt Lakes. Only minutes to the beach, shopping and fine dining. A beautifully maintained 2nd floor end-unit features an open floor plan with volume ceilings, 2 large walk-in closets, custom built-in cabinetry for extra storage, and a large screened lanai with roll down storm shutters. Covered parking outside the front door. Just steps to the tennis court and 1 of 2 pristine community pools available. A definite must see!

20. 2014-04-04
    soldstatus $188,500 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    This spacious two bedroom plus den, two bath residence is West of US 41 in the gated community of Vanderbilt Lakes. Only minutes to the beach, shopping and fine dining. A beautifully maintained 2nd floor end-unit features an open floor plan with volume ceilings, 2 large walk-in closets, custom built-in cabinetry for extra storage, and a large screened lanai with roll down storm shutters. Covered parking outside the front door. Just steps to the tennis court and 1 of 2 pristine community pools available. A definite must see!

21. 2013-09-23
    listed $188,500 529-char remark

    Show marketing remark (529 chars)

    This spacious two bedroom plus den, two bath residence is West of US 41 in the gated community of Vanderbilt Lakes. Only minutes to the beach, shopping and fine dining. A beautifully maintained 2nd floor end-unit features an open floor plan with volume ceilings, 2 large walk-in closets, custom built-in cabinetry for extra storage, and a large screened lanai with roll down storm shutters. Covered parking outside the front door. Just steps to the tennis court and 1 of 2 pristine community pools available. A definite must see!

22. 1992-09-17
    soldstatus $102,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,016 · $335/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,016 · $335/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 30 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $52,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,589
• − Property taxes: −$4,016
• − Insurance: −$1,570
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,191
• − Management: −$4,191
• − HOA: −$10,104
• − Depreciation: −$9,135
• Taxable income: $1,593
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$382
• After-tax cash flow: $5,555/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lee
• NCES district ID: 1201080
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,518
• Composite: 41.49/100
• National rank: #3458
• State rank: #42 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bonita Springs

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #428
• US rank: #7576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bonita Springs, FL
• County: Lee County · 788,662 people
• City population: 64,727
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,475
• Household income: $130,719
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 554.0

Population outlook (Lee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 871,946 people
• By 2030: 955,468 · +9.6%
• By 2040: 1,113,587 · +27.7%
• By 2050: 1,256,891 · +44.1%
• By 2075: 1,560,270 · +78.9%
• By 2100: 1,726,848 · +98.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Romanian 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.4) · D 35.5% · R 63.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.4 2020: R+19.2 2016: R+20.4 2012: R+16.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.48%
• Current HPI: 237.4416
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.85%
• Metro: Cape Coral-Fort Myers, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+210.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $319,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 2026-02-01 Price Changed $289,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $310,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $320,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-04-17 Sold (Public Records) $188,500 Public Records
• 2014-04-04 Sold (MLS) $188,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2014-04-04 Price Changed $191,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2013-09-23 Listed $188,500 NAPLESMLS
• 1992-09-17 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,016 · +9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.