16819 Quail Crest Ct · Houston, TX 77489

$245,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1982 6,899 sqft lot Est $241k · at est. $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located in the desired Quail Run subdivision. This charming single-story home featuring soaring vaulted ceilings and an open-concept living area with cozy fireplace. Updated kitchen boasts granite countertops, white cabinetry, and stainless steel appliances. Spacious primary suite with walk-in closet and en-suite bath. Generously sized secondary bedrooms, all with ceiling fans. Large backyard with privacy fence — perfect for entertaining. All new windows with a lifetime transferable warranty. Fresh, neutral paint throughout. Convenient location with easy access to Beltway 8, 59, and 288. This one is a MUST SEE!!!

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Updated kitchen
• Granite countertops

Tags

• QUAIL RUN SUBDIVISION
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• WALK-IN CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Quail Run Community Improvement Association; Annual association fee of $412

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1982; Single-level entry (first-floor living)
• Construction: Brick, cement siding, and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Located in a subdivision

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (16 x 14); Two additional bedrooms on the first floor (each 11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: One fireplace; Total of 4 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (13.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (18.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $201k (18.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hunters Glen El (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,583 of 4,322 statewide, top 86%, 240 students, 87% FRL); Missouri City Middle (math 19% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,177 of 1,662 statewide, top 72%, 963 students, 88% FRL); Fort Bend Co Alter (26 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 35% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 23% at this address vs 48% district-wide (-25 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Fort Bend ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 188 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $344 of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,908 (18.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $240,990
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8402 Bird Meadow Ln	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,664 (+0%)	6mo	$249,900	$150	81
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-1%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	80
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-6%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	80
16626 Quail Run Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-1%)	6mo	$210,000	$128	80
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+1%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	79
8403 Blossom Bell Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,547 (-7%)	6mo	$245,000	$158	64
16331 Hunting Dog Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,649 (-1%)	7mo	$265,000	$161	64
16614 Quiet Quail Dr	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (-9%)	6mo	$199,999	$133	61
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-10%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	59
1402 Cherry Springs Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,838 (+11%)	8mo	$250,000	$136	45
2518 Edgedale Dr	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,502 (-10%)	9mo	$209,000	$139	42
2450 Edgedale Dr	0.73mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,517 (-9%)	9mo	$220,000	$145	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-30,336
• Equity at exit: $64,463

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.47×
• Total profit: $-36,359
• Equity at exit: $72,342

Cash invested: $68,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 188
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,009 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,206/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$422
• Net cashflow: $-184

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,242

Max offer price $212,458

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-46	-5% $-115	+0% $-184	+5% $-254	+10% $-323
Rent	-10% $-343	-5% $-264	+0% $-184	+5% $-105	+10% $-25
Rate	-1.0pp $-61	-0.5pp $-122	base $-184	+0.5pp $-248	+1.0pp $-312

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,250
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	22d	1	0.65mi
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	45d	1	0.65mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	22d	1	1.09mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	45d	1	1.12mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	14d	1	1.19mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	7d	1	1.21mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	21d	1	1.37mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	14d	1	1.43mi
3618 Quail Meadow Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1618	$1,966	$1.22	45d	1	1.47mi
1055 Memorial Bend Blvd Missouri City, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,514	$2.53	0d	118	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $245,000 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $245,000 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $245,000 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 620-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 565-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $245,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,206 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,484 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$278/yr (+$23/mo · 6.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,724
• − Property taxes: −$4,206
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,929
• − Management: −$1,929
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$6,439
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,545
• After-tax cash flow: $-665/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $245,000 HARMLS
• 2016-06-13 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1995-08-04 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,206 · +11.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.