6824 Flats Ct · Midland, TX 79705

$285,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,350 sqft · SingleFamily · 38 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot $211/sqft · at area comps Est $273k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +5.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.8/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property taxes apply
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $275 (about $22.92/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; 1 story; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Wood fencing; Subdivision: Lone Star Trails II

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Microwave; Electric range
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Disposal; Microwave; Electric range; Gas water heater; Tile flooring; Ceiling fans; Central air; Central heating; Natural gas heating; Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $285k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $96 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $252k (11.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $252k (11.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rita El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 596 students, 45% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $251,965 (11.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.88% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.44%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $272,728
• List price: $285,000
• Delta: 4.50%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-41,190
• Equity at exit: $42,494

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-32,549
• Equity at exit: $24,642

Cash invested: $79,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,520 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,495
• Tax from tax record: −$258 /mo · $3,099/yr
• Insurance: −$119
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$529
• Net cashflow: $96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,398

Max offer price $285,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $257	-5% $177	+0% $96	+5% $15	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-103	-5% $-4	+0% $96	+5% $195	+10% $295
Rate	-1.0pp $239	-0.5pp $168	base $96	+0.5pp $22	+1.0pp $-53

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $71,250
• Closing costs: $8,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.26mi
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.26mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.27mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	0.55mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	0.56mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	23d	1	0.64mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	0.69mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.70mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	23d	1	0.71mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	0.72mi
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	23d	1	0.77mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.80mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	23d	1	0.81mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	0.81mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	0.83mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.84mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	0.85mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	0.85mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.87mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	0.89mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	23d	1	0.91mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	23d	1	0.93mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	0.96mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	23d	1	0.99mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	0.99mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	1.00mi
6717 Brand Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$2,400	$1.60	23d	1	1.06mi
6309 Ojibwa Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,150	$1.65	23d	1	1.24mi
1408 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	1.33mi
1513 San Miguel Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1853	$2,400	$1.30	15d	1	1.33mi
1336 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	45d	1	1.35mi
1405 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	15d	1	1.35mi
1341 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.35mi
1316 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,599	$1.59	45d	1	1.39mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,900	$1.78	45d	1	1.39mi
1337 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	23d	1	1.39mi
1321 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	45d	1	1.39mi
1300 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1485	$2,350	$1.58	45d	1	1.42mi
1312 Bajada St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,950	$1.81	23d	1	1.42mi
1305 Hogback Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,850	$1.75	15d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $285,000 Pending 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 30 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    statusdays on market $285,000 Active Under Contract 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $285,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $285,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $285,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $285,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $285,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $290,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,099 · $258/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,216 · $435/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,116/yr (+$176/mo · 68.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,236
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,964
• − Property taxes: −$3,099
• − Insurance: −$1,425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,419
• − Management: −$2,419
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,291
• Taxable loss: −$3,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$878
• After-tax cash flow: $2,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. A fresh coat of paint on the exterior walls and cleaning the gutters would further enhance its curb appeal and value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior walls — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Contingent — PBBOR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $285,000 PBBOR
• 2026-05-11 Listed $290,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+66.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,099 · -1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.