31238 Harp Ridge Dr · Katy, TX 77441

$316,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,042 sqft · SingleFamily · 3 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $155/sqft · 34% below area Est $481k · 34% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• Schools +6.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is located at 31238 Harp Ridge Drive FULSHEAR TX 77441 priced at 316990, the square foot and stories are 2042, 2.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 1 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 3 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $317k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-159 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $294k (7.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.5% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1802 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 37d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 57% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $257,219 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.14%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $481,028
• List price: $316,990
• Delta: -34.10%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3051 Liams Tower Ln	0.15mi	4/2.5	2,042 (0%)	0mo	$318,990	$156	93
2834 Garden Meadow St	0.34mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (-2%)	0mo	$395,000	$198	73
2806 Peach Valley Rd	0.16mi	4/3.0	2,341 (+15%)	0mo	$475,000	$203	66
3083 Liams Tower Ln	0.21mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-13%)	1mo	$299,990	$169	66
31127 Bonnington Venture Dr	0.23mi	4/2.0	1,778 (-13%)	0mo	$299,990	$169	65
2726 Sunrise Field Ln	0.48mi	4/3.0	1,878 (-8%)	0mo	$403,900	$215	62
3302 Hopper Knoll Ln	0.63mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	1mo	$349,990	$159	55
31930 Rich Meadows Ct	0.50mi	4/3.0	2,290 (+12%)	0mo	$429,000	$187	54
3318 Bonnie Heights St	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	0mo	$344,990	$157	52
3515 Ashe Landing Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,199 (+8%)	0mo	$349,990	$159	51
31731 Fern Grove Rd	0.56mi	4/3.0	2,317 (+14%)	0mo	$460,000	$199	49
3322 Bonnie Heights St	0.73mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-14%)	1mo	$314,990	$180	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-68,967
• Equity at exit: $47,264

10-year hold

• IRR: -28.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.15×
• Total profit: $-102,037
• Equity at exit: $27,408

Cash invested: $88,757 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 180 active · 141 under contract
• Months of supply: 8.6 mo (12%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $357,990 ($184/sqft)
• Median days on market: 69 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +27.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1802
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,572 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,662
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$396 /mo · $4,755/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$540
• Net cashflow: $-159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,773

Max offer price $294,039

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $60	-5% $-49	+0% $-159	+5% $-268	+10% $-378
Rent	-10% $-362	-5% $-260	+0% $-159	+5% $-57	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-78	base $-159	+0.5pp $-241	+1.0pp $-324

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,248
• Closing costs: $9,510
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
31306 Bentley Pines Dr Fulshear, TX	4.0	2.0	1778	$2,100	$1.18	19d	1	0.04mi
2826 Torrey Pines Dr Unit DO Pattison, TX	4.0	2.5	2657	$2,071	$0.78	101d	1	0.58mi
3206 Langley Bend Ln Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2276	$2,300	$1.01	38d	1	0.62mi
3702 Birtley Bend Way Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2688	$3,499	$1.30	37d	1	1.01mi
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	139d	1	1.01mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,330	$1.36	0d	8	1.09mi
2126 Great Egret Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2500	$3,170	$1.27	2d	1	1.22mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $316,990 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   remarks 240-char remark
3. 2026-06-21
   listed $316,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,866
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,756
• − Property taxes: −$4,755
• − Insurance: −$1,585
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,469
• − Management: −$2,469
• − Depreciation: −$9,222
• Taxable loss: −$7,390
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,774
• After-tax cash flow: $-130/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $10,210–$30,630 screening

This home is in good condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It has potential for further enhancing its curb appeal and energy efficiency with minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑
• Resale Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Modernizes the space and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Enhances convenience and property value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

C Composite school gradezoned avg 63/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Huggins El B TX #321/4,322 Nat'l #6,217/41,679 Middle Dean Leaman J H School B TX #206/1,662 Nat'l #2,146/14,009 High Foster H S B TX #141/1,632 Nat'l #2,354/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 76/100

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 1,004,526 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own

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Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

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Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B