144 Church Ln · Timberlake, VA 24550

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,663 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 1940 0.87 ac lot $132/sqft · 28% below area Est $306k · 28% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 144 Church Lane in Evington a well-built 1940 brick ranch that has remained in the same family for generations. Offering 1,663 square feet of single-level living, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, with a solid structure and a roof in good condition. The home is fully functional and ready for immediate occupancy, while also offering the opportunity for updates and personal touches. Situated on well and septic, the property has been vacant in recent years but has been consistently maintained to preserve its condition and integrity. Whether you're looking for a home you can move into today or a property you can gradually make your own, this is a rare opportunity to own a unique property at a great value in todays market. Being sold as-is, where-is. Call/Text agent for showing

Key facts

• 0.87 acre lot
• Built 1940
• Listed 62 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $127 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (17.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (17.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Timberlake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#227 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, commute D+, amenities F.
• Campbell County Public School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #55 of 131 in VA (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Leesville Road Elementary (math 73% / reading 72%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 625 students, 74% FRL); Brookville Middle (math 44% / reading 72%, grade B, #174 of 342 statewide, top 51%, 715 students, 74% FRL); Brookville High (math 66% / reading 82%, grade B+, #120 of 319 statewide, top 38%, 971 students, 69% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 37% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 315 units permitted in Campbell County in 2024 (51 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Campbell County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($206k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $180,486 (17.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.49%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $305,639
• List price: $219,000
• Delta: -28.35%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 8 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
56 Miles Ln Ln	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,616 (-3%)	9mo	$233,400	$144	53
11068 Leesville Rd	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,892 (+14%)	9mo	$293,400	$155	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-27,480
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-13,910
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24550

• Home prices YoY: -20.9%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $127

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,644

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $251	-5% $189	+0% $127	+5% $65	+10% $3
Rent	-10% $-15	-5% $56	+0% $127	+5% $199	+10% $270
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $183	base $127	+0.5pp $71	+1.0pp $13

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $219,000 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $219,000 Active 60 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 59 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 58 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 57 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 56 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $219,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $219,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $229,000 Active 51 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $229,000 Active 50 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $229,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $229,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $229,000 Active 45 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $229,000 Active 43 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $229,000 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $229,000 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $229,000 Active 40 DOM
18. 2026-04-20
    listed $239,000 Active 807-char remark

    Show marketing remark (807 chars)

    Welcome to 144 Church Lane in Evington a well-built 1940 brick ranch that has remained in the same family for generations. Offering 1,663 square feet of single-level living, this home features 3 bedrooms and 1 full bath, with a solid structure and a roof in good condition. The home is fully functional and ready for immediate occupancy, while also offering the opportunity for updates and personal touches. Situated on well and septic, the property has been vacant in recent years but has been consistently maintained to preserve its condition and integrity. Whether you're looking for a home you can move into today or a property you can gradually make your own, this is a rare opportunity to own a unique property at a great value in todays market. Being sold as-is, where-is. Call/Text agent for showing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,796 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,091/yr (+$91/mo · 154.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,658
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,245
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$539
• After-tax cash flow: $2,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Campbell County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100600
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $45,915
• Composite: 51.88/100
• National rank: #1656
• State rank: #55 of 131 in VA

Livability — Timberlake

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #7595

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 7,941

Population outlook (Campbell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 56,306 people
• By 2030: 56,366 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 55,406 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 53,011 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 45,932 · -18.4%
• By 2100: 36,029 · -36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 10% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: German 2% Italian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Vietnam, Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Vietnamese 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Campbell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+48.6) · D 25.3% · R 73.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.3pp toward R · 2008: -36.2pp · 2024: -48.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+48.6 2020: R+44.1 2016: R+47.2 2012: R+39.4 2008: R+36.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 180.6833
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Listed $239,000 LMLS

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.