14757 MacArthur Dr · St. George Island, MD 20687

$119,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,404 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1962

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.6/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Fire damage, needs complete rebuild, great lot with large mound system, deep well , electric power. Great view of Chesapeake Bay one short block. Water community with free Pier and Moorimg, launching. Next to point Lookout State Park. .

Key facts

• Deep well
• Electric power
• Mooring

Tags

• DEEP WELL
• ELECTRIC POWER
• GREAT VIEW
• WATER COMMUNITY
• FREE PIER
• MOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($308/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $115k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.9% vs local median 1.6% in St. George Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($823 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (2.1% local appreciation)).
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($115k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $119k implies a 59% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $115,430 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1962 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.29%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.1% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $10,680
• Equity at exit: $47,571

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.30×
• Total profit: $43,353
• Equity at exit: $68,994

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20687

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,623 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$156 /mo · $1,873/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$341
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,590

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $119,000 Under Contract 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 32 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $119,000 Active 31 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $119,000 Active 23 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $119,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-13
    price $119,000 236-char remark
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $125,000 Active 236-char remark
15. 2010-02-12
    historical Withdrawn
16. 2010-02-12
    historical
17. 2010-01-07
    status Active
18. 2010-01-04
    historical Withdrawn
19. 2009-11-21
    listed Active
20. 2009-11-21
    listed $169,900
21. 2009-01-22
    historical
22. 2008-12-18
    status
23. 2008-12-17
    historical
24. 2008-10-08
    price
25. 2008-08-29
    price
26. 2008-06-30
    listed
27. 2007-07-10
    historical
28. 2007-02-02
    listed
29. 1995-10-19
    soldstatus $75,000
30. 1987-08-14
    soldstatus $25,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,873 · $156/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,873 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,873
• − Insurance: −$5,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,558
• − Management: −$1,558
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$1,358
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$326
• After-tax cash flow: $634/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — St. George Island

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 331

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Black 20%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Scotch-Irish 10% Italian 6%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Current HPI: 184.9209
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+376.0% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — FSBO.com
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $119,000 FSBO.com
• 2026-05-12 Listed $125,000 FSBO.com
• 2010-02-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 2010-02-12 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-01-07 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-01-04 Delisted — MRIS
• 2009-11-21 Listed — MRIS
• 2009-11-21 Listed $169,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-01-22 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-12-18 Relisted — MRIS
• 2008-12-17 Delisted — MRIS
• 2008-10-08 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-08-29 Price Changed — MRIS
• 2008-06-30 Listed — MRIS
• 2007-07-10 Delisted — MRIS
• 2007-02-02 Listed — MRIS
• 1995-10-19 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1987-08-14 Sold (Public Records) $25,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,873 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.