126 Mattie Ct · Lewisburg, TN 37091

$199,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,474 sqft · Other · 77 Days on market

Built 2026 $136/sqft · 13% below area Est $229k · 13% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +10.1/30.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the Medford townhome at 126 Mattie Court in King's Landing, a new community in Lewisburg, TN. This two-story home combines comfort, style, and smart design in one functional layout. With beautiful brick or stone exterior accents to choose from, the Medford stands out inside and out. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath floorplan includes a single-car garage. Step inside to a spacious, open-concept main level where a gourmet kitchen welcomes you with silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new cabinets. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living areas, keeping you connected while cooking or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite features a walk-in closet and private bath with a double vanity. Two additional carpeted bedrooms, each with their own closet, share a full bath and complete the upper level. Like all homes in King's Landing, the Medford includes the Home is Connected® smart home package, allowing you to control lights, temperature, and more from your smart device, whether you're home or away. The Medford is one of our most popular plans. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to find your new home in King's Landing, Lewisburg, TN!

Key facts

• Brand-new cabinets
• Walk-in closet
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• SILESTONE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• BRAND-NEW CABINETS
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN LEVEL
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath other listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-118 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $183k (8.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.8% in Lewisburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#284 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Marshall County (rural): math 31% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #58 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 269 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 400 units permitted in Marshall County in 2024 (75 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marshall County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($188k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,000 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.58%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.53%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,899
• List price: $199,990
• Delta: -12.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.29×
• Total profit: $-39,904
• Equity at exit: $29,819

10-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-44,334
• Equity at exit: $17,291

Cash invested: $55,997 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37091

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 269
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,000/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-118

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,749

Max offer price $182,903

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-49	+0% $-118	+5% $-187	+10% $-256
Rent	-10% $-244	-5% $-181	+0% $-118	+5% $-55	+10% $8
Rate	-1.0pp $-17	-0.5pp $-67	base $-118	+0.5pp $-170	+1.0pp $-223

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,998
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	22d	1	0.13mi
174 Mackenzie Way Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.5	1474	$1,600	$1.09	25d	1	0.13mi
968 Foxboro Dr Lewisburg, TN	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,600	$1.09	45d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,990 Active 77 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,990 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $199,990 Active 74 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $202,990 Active 70 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $202,990 Active 69 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $202,990 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $202,990 Active 64 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $211,990 Active 63 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $211,990 Active 62 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $211,990 Active 61 DOM
11. 2026-05-01
    price $211,990 1206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1206 chars)

    Discover the Medford townhome at 126 Mattie Court in King's Landing, a new community in Lewisburg, TN. This two-story home combines comfort, style, and smart design in one functional layout. With beautiful brick or stone exterior accents to choose from, the Medford stands out inside and out. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath floorplan includes a single-car garage. Step inside to a spacious, open-concept main level where a gourmet kitchen welcomes you with silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new cabinets. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living areas, keeping you connected while cooking or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite features a walk-in closet and private bath with a double vanity. Two additional carpeted bedrooms, each with their own closet, share a full bath and complete the upper level. Like all homes in King's Landing, the Medford includes the Home is Connected® smart home package, allowing you to control lights, temperature, and more from your smart device, whether you're home or away. The Medford is one of our most popular plans. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to find your new home in King's Landing, Lewisburg, TN!

12. 2026-03-31
    listed $243,990 Active 1206-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1206 chars)

    Discover the Medford townhome at 126 Mattie Court in King's Landing, a new community in Lewisburg, TN. This two-story home combines comfort, style, and smart design in one functional layout. With beautiful brick or stone exterior accents to choose from, the Medford stands out inside and out. This 3-bedroom, 2.5-bath floorplan includes a single-car garage. Step inside to a spacious, open-concept main level where a gourmet kitchen welcomes you with silestone countertops, stainless steel appliances, and brand-new cabinets. The kitchen overlooks the dining and living areas, keeping you connected while cooking or entertaining. Upstairs, the primary suite features a walk-in closet and private bath with a double vanity. Two additional carpeted bedrooms, each with their own closet, share a full bath and complete the upper level. Like all homes in King's Landing, the Medford includes the Home is Connected® smart home package, allowing you to control lights, temperature, and more from your smart device, whether you're home or away. The Medford is one of our most popular plans. Don't miss your opportunity to make it yours. Contact us today to find your new home in King's Landing, Lewisburg, TN!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$3,000
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,892
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,174
• After-tax cash flow: $-243/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marshall County
• NCES district ID: 4702670
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,058
• Composite: 25.56/100
• National rank: #7426
• State rank: #58 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lewisburg

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #284
• US rank: #20031

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lewisburg, TN
• Population (ZIP): 23,991

Population outlook (Marshall County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,222 people
• By 2030: 33,867 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 34,743 · +4.6%
• By 2050: 34,954 · +5.2%
• By 2075: 34,652 · +4.3%
• By 2100: 31,862 · -4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 5% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Marshall

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.6) · D 21.2% · R 77.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.0pp toward R · 2008: -39.6pp · 2024: -56.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.6 2020: R+50.0 2016: R+46.6 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+39.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.86%
• Current HPI: 350.5306
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-13.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $211,990 Zillow
• 2026-03-31 Listed $243,990 Zillow

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $167 · +7.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.