395 Stoneridge Pkwy · Oroville East, CA 95966

$109,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 1997 ↓ 27% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this updated home behind a magestic Oak tree welcoming you to a quiet, peaceful setting in the Oaks Senior Community near Lake Oroville. 2 driveways provide ample parking. 2 car garage is attached to home with an easy elevator to the main floor. The front porch welcomes you to shaded views of the East Hills. Spacious living room with beautiful windows, plantation shutters, and 2 built in china cupboards. There is a formal dining room next to the eat-in kitchen with upgraded appliances. Two spacious bedrooms with new carpet have their own bathrooms, one with a walk in tub. A separate room functions as a den, home office or guest room. Look closely at the proessional photos attache

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Community pool
• Built 1997

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Park name: Oaks Sr. Community
• Financial info: Land lease $850 monthly (current); rent includes trash, water, and sewer; Manager approval required
• HOA & community: Senior community (Oaks Sr. Comm.); Community features: biking, hiking, lake

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access; 2 garage spaces; Driveway; Paved parking
• Utilities: 220V in kitchen; Private sewer; Public/District water; Electricity available; Cable available; No natural gas
• Home design: Single-story; Entry level 1; Mobile home remains on site; Has a view; Accessibility features including elevator and other disability accommodations; One total story
• Construction: Composition roof; One shed on the property
• Exterior features: Community pool; Sprinkler drip system; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Electric range; Dishwasher
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Bathtub
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Plantation shutters; Bonus room
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room; Washer included; Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $109k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $510 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $109k).
• Recommended offer: $106k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 3.4% in Oroville East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 51/100 on livability (#1,082 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Oroville Union High (town): math 19% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #300 of 517 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 372 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 946 units permitted in Butte County in 2024 (254 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $754 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Butte County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,730 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.04%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
145 Oak Grv	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	6mo	$30,000	$21	77
216 Rim Canyon Pkwy	0.23mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+11%)	8mo	$52,000	$35	64
248 Rim Canyon Pkwy	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	19mo	$45,000	$31	64
200 Creekside	0.27mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (+1%)	21mo	$90,000	$67	64
431 Summerwood	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (+2%)	21mo	$126,500	$92	62
112 Oak Grove Pkwy	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	0mo	$46,500	$40	62
315 Ridgecrest	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,250 (-7%)	22mo	$35,000	$28	60
108 Oak grove Pkwy #108	0.32mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	18mo	$32,900	$23	59
218 Rim Cyn #218	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	12mo	$47,000	$41	55
218 Rim Canyon Pkwy	0.26mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	12mo	$47,000	$41	54
140 Oak Grove Pkwy	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	18mo	$39,000	$25	52
140 Oak Grove Pkwy #140	0.13mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+14%)	18mo	$39,000	$25	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.49×
• Total profit: $14,824
• Equity at exit: $16,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.80×
• Total profit: $54,826
• Equity at exit: $9,424

Cash invested: $30,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95966

• Active inventory: 372
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,612 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$572
• Tax from tax record: −$147 /mo · $1,767/yr
• Insurance: −$45
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $109,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $571	-5% $540	+0% $510	+5% $479	+10% $448
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $446	+0% $510	+5% $573	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $564	-0.5pp $537	base $510	+0.5pp $481	+1.0pp $453

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,250
• Closing costs: $3,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5560 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	950	$1,600	$1.68	14d	1	0.71mi
5580 Old Olive Hwy Oroville, CA	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $109,000 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $109,000 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $109,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $109,000 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $109,000 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $109,000 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $109,000 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $109,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $109,000 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $109,000 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $109,000 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $109,000 Active 29 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $109,000 Active 28 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $109,000 Active 27 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $109,000 Active 26 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $109,000 Active 25 DOM
17. 2026-05-20
    price $109,000
18. 2026-05-05
    listed $119,000 Active
19. 2023-11-09
    historical
20. 2023-10-24
    status Active
21. 2023-07-24
    listed $149,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,767 · $147/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,349
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,106
• − Property taxes: −$1,767
• − Insurance: −$545
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,548
• − Management: −$1,548
• − Depreciation: −$3,171
• Taxable income: $4,665
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $4,995/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Oroville Union High
• NCES district ID: 0629130
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $38,085
• Composite: 28.26/100
• National rank: #6794
• State rank: #300 of 517 in CA

Livability — Oroville East

• Score: 51/100
• State rank: #1082
• US rank: #25347

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oroville East, CA
• County: Butte County · 175,030 people
• Metro: Chico, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,503
• Household income: $65,586
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 807.0

Population outlook (Butte County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,527 people
• By 2030: 243,804 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 253,899 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 262,561 · +10.5%
• By 2075: 283,709 · +19.4%
• By 2100: 282,689 · +19.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 14% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Asian/Pacific 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Butte

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 46.8% · R 49.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -3.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.1 2020: D+1.7 2016: R+4.0 2012: R+3.9 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -284.58%
• Current HPI: 267.1415
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Chico, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-27.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Price Changed $109,000 CRMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $119,000 CRMLS
• 2023-11-09 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2023-10-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $149,900 CRMLS

Property tax history

+7.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,767 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.