27641 Prospect St · Boron, CA 93516

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · SingleFamily · 1 Days on market

Built 1977 2.46 ac lot Est $257k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

For MLS purposes only.

Key facts

• 2.46 acre lot
• Built 1977

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#857 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Muroc Joint Unified (rural): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #340 of 517 in CA (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Irving L. Branch Elementary (math 25% / reading 42%, grade F, #764 of 1,571 statewide, top 49%, 383 students, 14% FRL); Desert Junior-Senior High (math 25% / reading 55%, grade F, #514 of 1,170 statewide, top 44%, 442 students, 11% FRL).
• Market conditions: 105 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $150k implies a 275% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $150,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.66%
• DSCR: 1.56
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,040
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12639 Daisy	0.58mi	3/1.5	1,354 (-10%)	3mo	$230,000	$170	51
12339 Boron Ave	0.66mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,294 (-14%)	3mo	$205,000	$158	38
12579 Daisy St	0.56mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,335 (-12%)	22mo	$245,000	$184	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $3,889
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.94×
• Total profit: $39,641
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93516

• Home prices YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 105
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,780 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$114 /mo · $1,367/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,219

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 70%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $528	-5% $485	+0% $443	+5% $401	+10% $358
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $373	+0% $443	+5% $513	+10% $584
Rate	-1.0pp $519	-0.5pp $481	base $443	+0.5pp $404	+1.0pp $365

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2024-04-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-04-02
   listed $150,000 Active
3. 1992-02-14
   soldstatus $40,000
4. 1978-12-31
   soldstatus $6,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,367 · $114/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 11 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,367
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,709
• − Management: −$1,709
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $3,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$734
• After-tax cash flow: $4,582/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Muroc Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0626490
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $47,457
• Composite: 26.31/100
• National rank: #7241
• State rank: #340 of 517 in CA

Livability — Boron

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #857
• US rank: #23452

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Boron, CA
• City population: 2,742
• Population (ZIP): 2,742

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 43% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 20% Black 5% Native American 4% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 6% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.49%
• Current HPI: 296.934
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+2400.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-02 Pending — AVMLS
• 2024-04-02 Listed $150,000 AVMLS
• 1992-02-14 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1978-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $6,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,367 · -0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.