Residence 3 Plan · Rancho Cordova, CA 95742

$570,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,831 sqft · SingleFamily · 199 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Residence Three: Designed with versatility in mind, this home features a full downstairs bedroom and bath, ideal for guests or a home office. . Upstairs, an airy layout opens to below, with a private primary suite and well-separated secondary bedrooms. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

Key facts

• Ample storage
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 199 days

Tags

• FULL DOWNSTAIRS BEDROOM
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• LARGE EAT-IN KITCHEN ISLAND
• AMPLE STORAGE
• ALL-READY SMART HOME PACKAGE

🏗️ New construction. The $570,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $641,396.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $570k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-24k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $352k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $308k (45.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $308k (45.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#268 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment B; Watch: commute C-, crime D, cost of living F.
• Elk Grove Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #165 of 517 in CA (top 32%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary (math 65% / reading 67%, grade B+, #176 of 1,571 statewide, top 11%, 966 students, 21% FRL); Katherine L. Albiani Middle (math 55% / reading 67%, grade B+, #57 of 498 statewide, top 12%, 1,307 students, 27% FRL); Pleasant Grove High (math 57% / reading 74%, grade B, #157 of 1,170 statewide, top 14%, 2,520 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 43% district-wide (19 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+19 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Elk Grove Unified average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 471 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $69k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $64k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$110k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 199 days — a 12% lower offer ($502k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $308,354 (45.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 199 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 46% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.34%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $641,396
• List price: $570,000
• Delta: -11.13%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12233 Habitat Way	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,801 (-2%)	2mo	$555,000	$308	77
12080 Prades Way	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,752 (-4%)	0mo	$542,200	$309	73
12219 Alamosa	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,906 (+4%)	2mo	$515,000	$270	69
4255 Choteau Cir	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,713 (-6%)	2mo	$570,000	$333	67
12320 Pawcatuck Way	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,864 (+2%)	2mo	$560,000	$300	64
12274 Greenfinch Way	0.69mi	3/2.5	1,850 (+1%)	2mo	$537,973	$291	63
12044 Mircado Way	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,723 (-6%)	1mo	$512,185	$297	55
12270 Greenfinch Way	0.69mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,007 (+10%)	2mo	$530,227	$264	44
12271 Greenfinch Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+14%)	2mo	$549,690	$264	42
12262 Greenfinch Way	0.67mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+14%)	2mo	$544,690	$261	41
12390 Alamosa Dr	0.72mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,080 (+14%)	2mo	$630,145	$303	38
12402 Alamosa Dr	0.75mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,095 (+14%)	1mo	$667,369	$319	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 2.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.22×
• Total profit: $219,378
• Equity at exit: $577,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.5%
• Equity multiple: 5.12×
• Total profit: $740,596
• Equity at exit: $1,246,092

Cash invested: $179,591 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95742

• Home prices YoY: 28.3%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 471
• Price-to-rent: 15.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,084 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,364
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$802 /mo · $9,621/yr
• Insurance: −$267
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$648
• Net cashflow: $-1,997

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,611

Max offer price $352,493

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,553	-5% $-1,775	+0% $-1,997	+5% $-2,218	+10% $-2,440
Rent	-10% $-2,240	-5% $-2,118	+0% $-1,997	+5% $-1,875	+10% $-1,753
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,674	-0.5pp $-1,833	base $-1,997	+0.5pp $-2,163	+1.0pp $-2,332

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $160,349
• Closing costs: $19,242
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12153 Coal Creek Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1906	$2,750	$1.44	16d	1	0.30mi
4013 Trento Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2371	$3,225	$1.36	18d	1	0.57mi
4143 Cahakia Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,795	$1.69	45d	1	0.57mi
11965 Pericles Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	2580	$2,900	$1.12	45d	1	0.89mi
11795 Corino Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,880	$1.44	0d	1	1.13mi
11832 Stoney Ridge Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2019	$2,695	$1.33	12d	1	1.14mi
11688 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,499	$1.98	13d	1	1.22mi
11664 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,199	$2.09	0d	1	1.24mi
11684 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	1765	$3,529	$2.00	23d	1	1.24mi
4071 Quorra Pl Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,279	$2.05	0d	1	1.25mi
11643 Giacinta Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1529	$3,169	$2.07	25d	1	1.28mi
11641 Fiorenza Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,189	$1.99	45d	1	1.28mi
3686 Rockdale Dr Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1880	$2,795	$1.49	9d	1	1.29mi
12579 Bellmead Way Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.0	1603	$2,650	$1.65	4d	1	1.31mi
11617 Venitia Ln Rancho Cordova, CA	3.0	2.5	1600	$3,249	$2.03	9d	1	1.34mi
4480 Arctic Tern Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.5	2550	$3,000	$1.18	45d	1	1.35mi
4328 Greenshank Cir Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,100	$1.72	45d	1	1.44mi
4454 Greenshank Way Rancho Cordova, CA	4.0	3.0	1900	$2,795	$1.47	0d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $570,000 Active 199 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $570,000 Active 196 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $570,000 Active 195 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $570,000 Active 194 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $570,000 Active 193 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 191 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $570,000 Active 190 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $570,000 Active 187 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $570,000 Active 186 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $570,000 Active 185 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $570,000 Active 182 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $570,000 Active 181 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $570,000 Active 180 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $570,000 Active 179 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $570,000 Active 178 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $570,000 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    Residence Three: Designed with versatility in mind, this home features a full downstairs bedroom and bath, ideal for guests or a home office. . Upstairs, an airy layout opens to below, with a private primary suite and well-separated secondary bedrooms. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

17. 2025-12-04
    listed $561,000 Active 438-char remark

    Show marketing remark (438 chars)

    Residence Three: Designed with versatility in mind, this home features a full downstairs bedroom and bath, ideal for guests or a home office. . Upstairs, an airy layout opens to below, with a private primary suite and well-separated secondary bedrooms. Enjoy the luxuries included in a Cresleigh Home such as hand set tiles in entry way, kitchen and wet areas, large eat-in kitchen island, ample storage, and All-Ready Smart Home package.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$35,928
• − Property taxes: −$9,621
• − Insurance: −$3,207
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,960
• − Management: −$2,960
• − Depreciation: −$18,659
• Taxable loss: −$36,333
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$8,720
• After-tax cash flow: $-15,239/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elk Grove Unified
• NCES district ID: 0612330
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $67,860
• Composite: 40.72/100
• National rank: #3658
• State rank: #165 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rancho Cordova

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #268
• US rank: #9126

Category grades

Amenities C Commute C- Cost of living F Crime D Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rancho Cordova, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 98,329
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 17,768
• Household income: $155,855
• Rent vs Own: 13.4% rent · 86.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 25% · China, South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 7% Other Indo-European 7% Tagalog/Filipino 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 52.05%
• Current HPI: 236.1388
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.08%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1.6% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $570,000 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Listed $561,000 Zillow