529 Terrapin Ln · Winder, GA 30680

$232,975

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,268 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2007 1,868 sqft lot $184/sqft · at area comps Est $243k · at est. $110/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

Key facts

• $110 HOA
• Garage
• Pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $233k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $163 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $223k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $219k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 3.9% in Winder — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#47 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Barrow County (rural): math 29% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #77 of 174 in GA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 566 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,427 units permitted in Barrow County in 2024 (311 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Barrow County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $218,996 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.99%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,468
• List price: $232,975
• Delta: -4.31%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1428 Box Cir	0.10mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,268 (0%)	5mo	$240,000	$189	87
506 Yargo Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,188 (-6%)	10mo	$319,000	$269	66
63 Matthews School Rd	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,281 (+1%)	22mo	$239,000	$187	61
463 Valley Trce	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,434 (+13%)	20mo	$285,000	$199	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-29,015
• Equity at exit: $34,737

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-18,480
• Equity at exit: $20,143

Cash invested: $65,233 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30680

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 566
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,228 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,222
• Tax from tax record: −$169 /mo · $2,023/yr
• Insurance: −$97
• HOA: −$110
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$468
• Net cashflow: $163

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,022

Max offer price $232,975

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $229	+0% $163	+5% $97	+10% $31
Rent	-10% $-13	-5% $75	+0% $163	+5% $251	+10% $339
Rate	-1.0pp $280	-0.5pp $222	base $163	+0.5pp $102	+1.0pp $41

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $58,244
• Closing costs: $6,989
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
349 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1494	$1,800	$1.20	45d	1	0.08mi
370 Turtle Creek Dr Unit 1 Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,900	$1.06	6d	1	0.08mi
370 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	3.0	1474	$1,900	$1.29	5d	1	0.08mi
290 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1840	$1,999	$1.09	4d	1	0.13mi
281 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1800	$3,700	$2.06	45d	1	0.17mi
247 Turtle Creek Dr Winder, GA	3.0	2.5	1529	$1,885	$1.23	5d	1	0.18mi
420 Foxdale Rd Winder, GA	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,885	$1.25	45d	1	1.14mi
97 Lily Dr Unit F Winder, GA	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,500	$1.46	14d	1	1.28mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $110 · $1,320/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingexterior maint.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $232,975 Active 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $232,975 Active 59 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $232,975 Active 58 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $232,975 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $232,975 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $232,975 Active 54 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $233,950 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $233,950 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $233,950 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $233,950 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $233,950 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $233,950 Active 43 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    price $233,950 Active 42 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $234,750 Active 42 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $234,750 Active 41 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $235,750 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $236,500 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

19. 2026-04-20
    listed $239,000 Active 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

20. 2026-04-17
    price $239,000 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

21. 2026-04-17
    historical $23,900 631-char remark

    Show marketing remark (631 chars)

    Clean, move-in ready townhome in desirable Turtle Creek Villas, perfect for both homeowners and investors. This well-maintained property offers a functional open layout, spacious bedrooms, and private outdoor space, making it ideal for comfortable living or strong rental potential. Located in a swim and tennis community with HOA covering exterior maintenance and lawn care, this is truly low-maintenance ownership. Convenient access to Hwy 316, shopping, and dining adds to the appeal for both residents and tenants. Turnkey condition with no work needed. Priced aggressively for a fast sale, seller ready to close quickly.

22. 2009-03-24
    soldstatus $480,240
23. 2007-07-03
    soldstatus $248,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,023 · $169/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,143 · $179/mo
• Expected delta: +$120/yr (+$10/mo · 6.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,735
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,050
• − Property taxes: −$2,023
• − Insurance: −$1,165
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,139
• − Management: −$2,139
• − HOA: −$1,320
• − Depreciation: −$6,777
• Taxable loss: −$1,878
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$451
• After-tax cash flow: $2,402/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barrow County
• NCES district ID: 1300290
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,082
• Composite: 27.63/100
• National rank: #6921
• State rank: #77 of 174 in GA

Livability — Winder

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #47
• US rank: #5120

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winder, GA
• County: Barrow County · 133,377 people
• City population: 48,388
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 48,388
• Household income: $80,956
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 622.0

Population outlook (Barrow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 86,670 people
• By 2030: 92,039 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 101,992 · +17.7%
• By 2050: 110,075 · +27.0%
• By 2075: 124,017 · +43.1%
• By 2100: 127,579 · +47.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 13% Black 12% Two or more races 9% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Barrow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.5) · D 29.5% · R 70.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.1pp toward D · 2008: -44.6pp · 2024: -40.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.5 2020: R+43.1 2016: R+50.4 2012: R+50.5 2008: R+44.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -75.21%
• Current HPI: 229.5804
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-4.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $235,750 FMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $236,500 FMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $239,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $239,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-17 Coming Soon $23,900 FMLS
• 2009-03-24 Sold (Public Records) $480,240 Public Records
• 2007-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $248,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,023 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.