461 Moore Rd · Williamsburg, KY 40769

$119,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,177 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 36 Days on market

0.50 ac lot $102/sqft · 22% below area Est $154k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Ranch-style home offering approximately 1,177 finished square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Bathrooms have been updated. Includes a garage that is close to completion. Please be advised that any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $2,000, whichever is greater.

Key facts

• Updated bathrooms
• 0.5 acre lot
• Listed 36 days

Tags

• UPDATED BATHROOMS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($81/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $99k (17.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $99k (17.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.9% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#168 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Williamsburg Independent (town): math 19% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #126 of 165 in KY (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 95 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Whitley County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.7%/yr); year-one equity from $829 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $888 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whitley County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 16y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $56/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,969 (17.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.23%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $153,782
• List price: $119,900
• Delta: -22.03%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
102 Chad St	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,062 (-10%)	1mo	$55,000	$52	68
671 Old Corbin Pike Rd	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+2%)	10mo	$185,000	$154	68
61 Windy Hill Ln	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,260 (+7%)	10mo	$155,000	$123	68
62 Windy Hill Ln	0.20mi	3/1.5	1,066 (-9%)	10mo	$164,000	$154	65
68 Lindenberg Dr	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,248 (+6%)	15mo	$82,500	$66	58
40 Lawson St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-10%)	9mo	$120,000	$114	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.74% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-7,208
• Equity at exit: $30,441

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,440
• Equity at exit: $33,261

Cash invested: $33,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40769

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 95
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $990 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $490/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$56 /mo · $666/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$208
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $981

Max offer price $119,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $75	-5% $41	+0% $7	+5% $-27	+10% $-61
Rent	-10% $-71	-5% $-32	+0% $7	+5% $46	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $67	-0.5pp $37	base $7	+0.5pp $-24	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,975
• Closing costs: $3,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   Ranch-style home offering approximately 1,177 finished square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Bathrooms have been updated. Includes a garage that is close to completion. Please be advised that any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $2,000, whichever is greater.

2. 2026-03-30
   listed $119,900 Active 327-char remark

   Show marketing remark (327 chars)

   Ranch-style home offering approximately 1,177 finished square feet with 3 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms. Bathrooms have been updated. Includes a garage that is close to completion. Please be advised that any offers on this property require a minimum Earnest Money Deposit of 1% of the Purchase Price or $2,000, whichever is greater.

3. 2021-08-05
   soldstatus $149,000
4. 2021-02-12
   soldstatus $65,000
5. 2010-12-31
   historical
6. 2010-08-14
   listed $19,900
7. 2009-05-15
   soldstatus $14,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $490 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,031 · $86/mo
• Expected delta: +$541/yr (+$45/mo · 110.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,876
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,716
• − Property taxes: −$490
• − Insurance: −$1,266
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$950
• − Management: −$950
• − Depreciation: −$3,488
• Taxable loss: −$1,984
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$476
• After-tax cash flow: $557/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg Independent
• NCES district ID: 2105910
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -22.00%
• Median HH income: $31,586
• Composite: 23.12/100
• National rank: #7957
• State rank: #126 of 165 in KY

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #168
• US rank: #8601

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, KY
• Population (ZIP): 17,931

Population outlook (Whitley County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,362 people
• By 2030: 34,807 · -1.6%
• By 2040: 33,525 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 32,550 · -8.0%
• By 2075: 29,555 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 24,308 · -31.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Whitley

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.3) · D 14.8% · R 84.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -47.7pp · 2024: -69.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.3 2020: R+65.2 2016: R+67.2 2012: R+57.8 2008: R+47.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.74%
• Current HPI: 163.6801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+756.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $119,900 ImagineMLS
• 2021-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $149,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-12 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2010-12-31 Listing Removed — ImagineMLS
• 2010-08-14 Listed $19,900 ImagineMLS
• 2009-05-15 Sold (Public Records) $14,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $490 · -3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.