86 Windsor Rd · The Hideout, PA 18428

$209,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 106 Days on market

Built 1977 0.77 ac lot $219/sqft · 7% above area Est $197k · 7% over $75/mo HOA · 4% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• ARV discount +4.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Flexible 2-3 Bedroom Home in Paupackan Lake Estates - Move-In Ready with Brand New Deck & Home Warrenty. Welcome to your opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in the sought-after Paupackan Lake community, just a short walk--only a few blocks--from the lake. This freshly painted, move-in ready home offers 2 spacious bedrooms, including an oversized primary suite that was previously configured as a third bedroom and can easily be converted back, providing added flexibility and value. With approximately 925 square feet, this home is thoughtfully laid out to maximize space, light, and comfort. The open feel, combined with its clean, updated interior, makes it the perfect canvas for your personal touch. A brand new back deck extends your living space outdoors, ideal for morning coffee, summer gatherings, or winding down in the evenings surrounded by nature. Seller is offering a home warranty. This added incentive provides peace of mind and exceptional value for the next owner. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes: Prime location near the lake Flexible 2-3 bedroom layout Completely empty and turnkey condition Low-maintenance living in a peaceful community setting With limited inventory in this desirable lake community, opportunities like this don't last. Don't miss your chance to take advantage of this added incentive and make it yours.

Key facts

• Sandy beach
• Community lake
• Trails

Tags

• CIRCLE DRIVEWAY
• MATURE TREES
• COMMUNITY LAKE
• SANDY BEACH
• TRAILS
• PLAYGROUND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $148 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $195k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $191k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Hideout — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#668 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 177 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 106 days — a 9% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $70k; list at $210k implies a 200% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $191,009 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 106 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.02%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $197,066
• List price: $209,900
• Delta: 6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Windsor Rd	0.14mi	3/1.0 (+1)	960 (0%)	7mo	$144,500	$151	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $123,744
• Equity at exit: $189,095

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.07×
• Total profit: $356,969
• Equity at exit: $407,790

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,946 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$126 /mo · $1,510/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$409
• Net cashflow: $148

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,758

Max offer price $209,900

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,900 Active 106 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,900 Active 105 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,900 Active 104 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,900 Active 103 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 101 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $209,900 Active 100 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $209,900 Active 97 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $209,900 Active 96 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $209,900 Active 95 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $209,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $209,900 Active 91 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $209,900 Active 90 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $209,900 Active 89 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $209,900 Active 88 DOM
15. 2026-04-03
    price $209,900 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    Flexible 2-3 Bedroom Home in Paupackan Lake Estates - Move-In Ready with Brand New Deck & Home Warrenty. Welcome to your opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in the sought-after Paupackan Lake community, just a short walk--only a few blocks--from the lake. This freshly painted, move-in ready home offers 2 spacious bedrooms, including an oversized primary suite that was previously configured as a third bedroom and can easily be converted back, providing added flexibility and value. With approximately 925 square feet, this home is thoughtfully laid out to maximize space, light, and comfort. The open feel, combined with its clean, updated interior, makes it the perfect canvas for your personal touch. A brand new back deck extends your living space outdoors, ideal for morning coffee, summer gatherings, or winding down in the evenings surrounded by nature. Seller is offering a home warranty. This added incentive provides peace of mind and exceptional value for the next owner. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes: Prime location near the lake Flexible 2-3 bedroom layout Completely empty and turnkey condition Low-maintenance living in a peaceful community setting With limited inventory in this desirable lake community, opportunities like this don't last. Don't miss your chance to take advantage of this added incentive and make it yours.

16. 2026-03-04
    listed $220,000 Active 1489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1489 chars)

    Flexible 2-3 Bedroom Home in Paupackan Lake Estates - Move-In Ready with Brand New Deck & Home Warrenty. Welcome to your opportunity to own a beautifully refreshed home in the sought-after Paupackan Lake community, just a short walk--only a few blocks--from the lake. This freshly painted, move-in ready home offers 2 spacious bedrooms, including an oversized primary suite that was previously configured as a third bedroom and can easily be converted back, providing added flexibility and value. With approximately 925 square feet, this home is thoughtfully laid out to maximize space, light, and comfort. The open feel, combined with its clean, updated interior, makes it the perfect canvas for your personal touch. A brand new back deck extends your living space outdoors, ideal for morning coffee, summer gatherings, or winding down in the evenings surrounded by nature. Seller is offering a home warranty. This added incentive provides peace of mind and exceptional value for the next owner. Whether you're looking for a full-time residence, weekend escape, or investment opportunity, this property checks all the boxes: Prime location near the lake Flexible 2-3 bedroom layout Completely empty and turnkey condition Low-maintenance living in a peaceful community setting With limited inventory in this desirable lake community, opportunities like this don't last. Don't miss your chance to take advantage of this added incentive and make it yours.

17. 2024-08-13
    price $145,000
18. 2024-08-02
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2024-04-05
    soldstatus $70,000
20. 2023-11-28
    soldstatus $55,000
21. 2006-07-12
    soldstatus $69,851
22. 2004-02-13
    soldstatus $62,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,510 · $126/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,413 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: +$903/yr (+$75/mo · 59.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,350
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$1,510
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,868
• − Management: −$1,868
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$1,710
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$410
• After-tax cash flow: $2,188/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — The Hideout

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #668
• US rank: #6516

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 47,924 people
• By 2030: 46,191 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 42,815 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 39,873 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 34,556 · -27.9%
• By 2100: 28,358 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.1) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.8pp toward R · 2008: -12.3pp · 2024: -37.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.1 2020: R+33.6 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+238.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Price Changed $209,900 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2026-03-04 Listed $220,000 GSBR as distributed by MLS GRID
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $145,000 PWMLS
• 2024-08-02 Listed $150,000 PWMLS
• 2024-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2023-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $55,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $69,851 Public Records
• 2004-02-13 Sold (Public Records) $62,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,510 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.