501 Mulberry St · Bernie, MO 63822

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,108 sqft · Other public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1979 7,666 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Located at 501 Mulberry Street in Bernie, MO, this 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom home presents an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to add value with a light renovation. With key updates already in place, this property is primed to become a strong addition to a rental portfolio or a profitable flip. The home features a beautifully remodeled primary bathroom, offering a modern touch that sets the tone for future improvements. Outside, you’ll find a privacy fenced backyard, perfect for tenants, pets, or outdoor enjoyment. Whether you’re looking for your next project or an income-producing property, this home offers the potential and flexibility to bring your vision to

Key facts

• 7,666 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 1979

Tags

• REMODELED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• PRIVACY FENCED BACKYARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $233 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($983 rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#179 in MO) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Bernie R-XIII (rural): math 38% / reading 66% proficiency, ranked #34 of 324 in MO (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bernie Elem. (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #231 of 1,115 statewide, top 24%, 280 students, 66% FRL); Bernie High (math 32% / reading 67%, grade D, #124 of 521 statewide, top 28%, 228 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 17 units permitted in Stoddard County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($622 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.7% local appreciation)).
• Stoddard County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,551 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.09%
• DSCR: 1.49
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.73% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $29,152
• Equity at exit: $44,194

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.13×
• Total profit: $78,739
• Equity at exit: $71,198

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63822

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $983 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$35 /mo · $419/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $233

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 71%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $283	-5% $258	+0% $233	+5% $207	+10% $182
Rent	-10% $155	-5% $194	+0% $233	+5% $271	+10% $310
Rate	-1.0pp $278	-0.5pp $255	base $233	+0.5pp $209	+1.0pp $186

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $89,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $419 · $35/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $872 · $73/mo
• Expected delta: +$453/yr (+$38/mo · 108.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,793
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$419
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$943
• − Management: −$943
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,386
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$333
• After-tax cash flow: $2,458/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bernie R-XIII
• NCES district ID: 2904950
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,592
• Composite: 43.24/100
• National rank: #3055
• State rank: #34 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bernie

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #179
• US rank: #9377

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bernie, MO
• Population (ZIP): 2,562

Population outlook (Stoddard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,096 people
• By 2030: 28,478 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 27,073 · -7.0%
• By 2050: 25,512 · -12.3%
• By 2075: 21,740 · -25.3%
• By 2100: 17,841 · -38.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stoddard

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.9) · D 12.8% · R 86.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.1pp toward R · 2008: -39.8pp · 2024: -73.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.9 2020: R+72.0 2016: R+69.3 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+39.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.73%
• Current HPI: 143.7346
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $419 · -14.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.