18316 34th Ave S · SeaTac, WA 98188

$54,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · Manufactured · 263 Days on market

Built 1968 $54/sqft · 14% below area Est $63k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Bow Lake, a vibrant 55+ community where convenience meets comfort. This spacious, well-kept remodeled home offers 2 bedrooms, 1.75 baths, plus flexible spaces for dining, office, and a cozy family room. New furnace too! Relax on the covered patio overlooking a peaceful backyard, or enjoy the extra storage with two sheds and covered carport parking. Ideally located near SeaTac Airport, freeways, and Sound Transit, you’ll love the easy access to everything. The recently updated clubhouse features a pool, exercise room, coffee bar, pool table, and gathering space—perfect for making the most of the Bow Lake lifestyle! First 3 months FREE space rent!

Key facts

• Updated clubhouse
• Extra storage
• Covered patio

Tags

• COVERED PATIO
• PEACEFUL BACKYARD
• EXTRA STORAGE
• TWO SHEDS
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING
• UPDATED CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 36.4% vs local median 3.1% in SeaTac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#118 in WA, #2,417 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, cost of living F.
• Highline School District (suburban): math 36% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #200 of 291 in WA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.7%/yr); 96 active listings in the ZIP; 21 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10,555 units permitted in King County in 2024 (7,119 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($76k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $373 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• King County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 263 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (28%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $46k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $47,520 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 263 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 36.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 107.38%
• DSCR: 5.78
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $62,755
• List price: $54,000
• Delta: -13.95%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18109 32nd Ave Ave S #331	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,012 (+1%)	2mo	$100,000	$99	89
3417 S 182nd St #185	0.08mi	2/2.0	880 (-12%)	0mo	$145,000	$165	76
18112 36th Ave S	0.14mi	1/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (+4%)	10mo	$28,688	$28	73
3241 S 182nd Pl #222	0.06mi	2/1.0	890 (-11%)	4mo	$20,000	$22	72
3403 S 181st St #99	0.13mi	2/2.0	960 (-4%)	21mo	$163,500	$170	69
3244 S 180th Pl #33	0.18mi	2/2.0	880 (-12%)	11mo	$154,000	$175	62
18100 36th Ave S #389	0.16mi	2/2.0	865 (-14%)	11mo	$130,000	$150	61
18106 36th Pl S	0.17mi	2/2.0	1,140 (+14%)	11mo	$38,000	$33	60
3431 S 180th Pl #67	0.17mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,100 (+10%)	22mo	$125,000	$114	52

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.70×
• Total profit: $71,051
• Equity at exit: $8,052

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.80×
• Total profit: $148,217
• Equity at exit: $4,669

Cash invested: $15,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98188

• Rents YoY: -0.7%
• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,185 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$283
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $810/yr
• Insurance: −$22
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$459
• Net cashflow: $1,353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $472

Max offer price $54,000

Occupancy floor 33%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,390	-5% $1,372	+0% $1,353	+5% $1,334	+10% $1,316
Rent	-10% $1,180	-5% $1,267	+0% $1,353	+5% $1,439	+10% $1,526
Rate	-1.0pp $1,380	-0.5pp $1,367	base $1,353	+0.5pp $1,339	+1.0pp $1,325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,500
• Closing costs: $1,620
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 21 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3715 S 182nd St Unit C125 Seatac, WA	3.0	2.0	1204	$2,290	$1.90	25d	1	0.15mi
17840 32nd Ave S Seatac, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	757	$2,000	$2.64	13d	3	0.24mi
3508 S 180th St Seatac, WA	2.0	2.0	964	$2,025	$2.10	0d	2	0.28mi
3351 S 175th St Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	665	$1,850	$2.78	2d	4	0.47mi
18129 45th Ave S Seatac, WA	3.0	1.5	1070	$3,000	$2.80	18d	1	0.51mi
18912 46th Ave S Seatac, WA	3.0	2.0	1300	$4,000	$3.08	44d	1	0.73mi
4410 S 173rd St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	723	$2,100	$2.90	44d	1	0.81mi
17932 51st Ave S Seatac, WA	3.0	2.0	1420	$3,350	$2.36	2d	1	0.93mi
4807 S 172nd Pl Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	44d	1	1.00mi
16700 31st Ave S Seatac, WA	1.0	1.0	750	$1,498	$2.00	44d	2	1.01mi
19707 International Blvd Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0	610	$1,799	$2.95	0d	20	1.02mi
19800 International Blvd Seatac, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	790	$2,210	$2.80	0d	11	1.04mi
19822 Military Rd S SeaTac, WA	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,395	$2.00	13d	1	1.08mi
2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	703	$2,975	$4.23	0d	6	1.18mi
2929 S 200th St Seatac, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	703	$2,975	$4.23	17d	12	1.18mi
20036 30th Ave S Unit S8 SeaTac, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	25d	1	1.23mi
20036 30th Ave S Unit S9 SeaTac, WA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,795	$2.39	11d	1	1.23mi
4220 S 164th St Unit 3A Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,790	$1.79	44d	1	1.28mi
4220 S 164th St Unit 3C Seattle, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,790	$1.79	2d	1	1.28mi
3445 S 160th St Seattle, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	730	$1,800	$2.47	3d	5	1.43mi
3231 S 204th St Seatac, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	917	$2,080	$2.27	2d	7	1.44mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-03-31
   price $54,000
2. 2026-02-06
   price $58,500
3. 2025-11-21
   price $64,850
4. 2025-10-14
   price $70,000
5. 2025-09-06
   listed $74,500 Active
6. 2022-09-13
   soldstatus $46,000 Closed
7. 2022-08-27
   status Pending
8. 2022-08-14
   listed $57,500 Active
9. 2018-08-15
   soldstatus $40,000 Sold
10. 2018-07-18
    status Pending
11. 2018-07-09
    status Pending Inspection
12. 2018-06-28
    status Active
13. 2018-06-26
    status Pending
14. 2018-06-21
    status Pending Inspection
15. 2018-06-19
    listed $40,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,220
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,025
• − Property taxes: −$810
• − Insurance: −$270
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,098
• − Management: −$2,098
• − Depreciation: −$1,571
• Taxable income: $16,349
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,924
• After-tax cash flow: $12,312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Highline School District
• NCES district ID: 5303540
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $52,697
• Composite: 39.12/100
• National rank: #8245
• State rank: #200 of 291 in WA

Livability — SeaTac

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #118
• US rank: #2417

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: SeaTac, WA
• County: King County · 2,251,916 people
• City population: 62,839
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 27,311
• Household income: $76,438
• Rent vs Own: 58.5% rent · 41.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1341.0

Population outlook (King County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,576,485 people
• By 2030: 2,803,316 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 3,255,921 · +26.4%
• By 2050: 3,706,444 · +43.9%
• By 2075: 4,746,063 · +84.2%
• By 2100: 5,407,730 · +109.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.79)
• Race & ethnicity: White 28% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 21% Asian 15% Two or more races 10% Pacific Islander 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Portuguese 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 41% · Canada, Vietnam, Philippines
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Asian/Pacific 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · King

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+51.7) · D 74.2% · R 22.5% · Other 3.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 51.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+51.7 2020: D+52.7 2016: D+50.4 2012: D+39.9 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -595.95%
• Current HPI: 334.4203
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.68%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+35.0% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $54,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $58,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $64,850 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Price Changed $70,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-06 Listed $74,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-13 Sold (MLS) $46,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-27 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-14 Listed $57,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-15 Sold (MLS) $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-18 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-28 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-26 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-21 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-06-19 Listed $40,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid