4050 Arrowhead Ave · Spring Hill, FL 34606

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 822 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1961 7,000 sqft lot Est $95k · 16% over

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• ARV discount +0.1/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MOVE IN READY! Welcome to Spring Hill! This 2-bedroom, 1-bath, 1- Car Garage home is looking for it's new owner. This home was recently renovated and includes Newer Roof (2021), Newer A/C (2021), Brand New Kitchen (2022), Newer Electrical (2021), New Interior/Exterior Paint and a spacious enclosed Sunroom. In your new home you will be only minutes away from Shopping and Restaurants and less than 3 miles from Weeki Wachee Springs State Park. Don't miss out on this great home. Home taken temporarily off market due to Septic Tank needing to be replaced. Seller is replacing full septic and drainage system. Expected Date of Completion is 08/12/2022.

Key facts

• Open framing
• Value-add play
• Full rehab

Tags

• STRIPPED TO THE STUDS
• OPEN FRAMING
• FULL REHAB
• VALUE-ADD PLAY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Living area listed as 822 square feet (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: No HOA/association reported

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity available; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Faces east; Residential zoning
• Construction: Block construction; Other roof type; Slab foundation; Built on a 0.16 acre lot
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: No central heating; Mini-split cooling unit(s)
• Interior features: No specific interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in the garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $443 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
• Cap rate 11.1% vs local median 4.4% in Spring Hill — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#738 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Hernando (suburban): math 50% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #38 of 73 in FL (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Deltona Elementary School (math 45% / reading 50%, grade D, #1,182 of 2,144 statewide, top 55%, 843 students, 72% FRL); Fox Chapel Middle School (math 39% / reading 44%, grade F, #348 of 571 statewide, top 62%, 862 students, 69% FRL); Central High School (math 34% / reading 44%, grade F, #312 of 667 statewide, top 48%, 1,426 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.9%/yr); 392 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,505 units permitted in Hernando County in 2024 (318 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hernando County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.27%
• DSCR: 1.77
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $94,530
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3274 Welsh St	0.64mi	2/1.0	872 (+6%)	20mo	$100,000	$115	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $5,738
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.76×
• Total profit: $23,339
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34606

• Home prices YoY: -24.7%
• Rents YoY: -0.9%
• Active inventory: 392
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,614 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$209 /mo · $2,510/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$339
• Net cashflow: $443

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,053

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $505	-5% $474	+0% $443	+5% $412	+10% $381
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $379	+0% $443	+5% $507	+10% $571
Rate	-1.0pp $499	-0.5pp $471	base $443	+0.5pp $415	+1.0pp $386

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7423 Mohawk Trl Spring Hill, FL	3.0	2.0	1114	$1,795	$1.61	19d	1	0.37mi
4300 Bridgewater Club Loop Spring Hill, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1078	$1,268	$1.18	0d	13	0.59mi
3204 Painters St Spring Hill, FL	2.0	2.0	749	$1,300	$1.74	13d	1	0.81mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $110,000 Active 3 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on marketlisting id $110,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
4. 2026-06-13
   listed $110,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,510 · $209/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,367
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$2,510
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,549
• − Management: −$1,549
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $3,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$923
• After-tax cash flow: $4,395/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hernando
• NCES district ID: 1200810
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,985
• Composite: 42.03/100
• National rank: #3329
• State rank: #38 of 73 in FL

Livability — Spring Hill

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #738
• US rank: #15937

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spring Hill, FL
• County: Hernando County · 169,677 people
• City population: 83,915
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 28,668
• Household income: $57,337
• Rent vs Own: 23.2% rent · 76.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 733.0

Population outlook (Hernando County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,218 people
• By 2030: 194,367 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 203,398 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 209,589 · +10.8%
• By 2075: 218,452 · +15.4%
• By 2100: 205,923 · +8.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 10% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hernando

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.0) · D 31.1% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.5pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -37.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.0 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+29.0 2012: R+8.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -98.11%
• Current HPI: 298.5201
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+182.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2022-09-02 Sold (MLS) $195,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-22 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-16 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-06-02 Listed $199,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records
• 2017-05-18 Sold (MLS) $60,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-05-18 Sold (MLS) $60,000 HCAR
• 2017-04-27 Listed $69,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-04-27 Listed $69,900 HCAR
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) $43,000 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-04-27 Sold (MLS) $43,000 HCAR
• 2017-04-05 Listed $67,900 St. Augustine and St. Johns County Board of REALTORS®
• 2017-04-05 Listed $67,900 HCAR
• 2000-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $39,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,510 · -2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.