9442 Highway 1 · Stony River, MN 55607

$139,900

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,960 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 128 Days on market

Built 1980 1.00 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.4/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Appreciation +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Escape to the peace and quiet of the woods with this 4-bedroom, 1-bath log home nestled on a 1-acre parcel. Surrounded by nature, this property offers the perfect blend of rustic character and everyday comfort—ideal as a year-round single-family home, weekend cabin getaway or hunting shack. Inside, you’ll find warm wood finishes and inviting living spaces that capture the true Northwoods feel. The spacious layout provides four comfortable bedrooms, offering plenty of room for family and friends. Outside, the property features a two-stall detached garage—perfect for storing vehicles, recreational toys, and outdoor equipment. With direct access to nearby snowmobile and ATV/UTV trails, adventure is always just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to recreational lakes for boating and fishing, along with endless acres of state land for hunting, hiking, and exploring. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a private retreat, this log home offers the tranquility of country living with year-round outdoor recreation right at your doorstep. Property in need of maintenance with lots of potential!

Key facts

• 1 acre parcel
• Log home
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• LOG HOME
• 1 ACRE PARCEL
• TWO STALL DETACHED GARAGE
• DIRECT ACCESS TO ATV TRAILS
• ENDLESS ACRES OF STATE LAND

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Superior Public School District (rural): math 34% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #191 of 301 in MN (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: William Kelley Elementary (math 42% / reading 62%, grade C-, #368 of 857 statewide, top 47%, 173 students, 40% FRL); Wm. M. Kelley Secondary (math 50% / reading 64%, grade C, #64 of 471 statewide, top 16%, 173 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools average 41% FRL vs 23% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 13 active listings in the ZIP; 81 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $907 appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Lake County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 128 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 128 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.67%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.65% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.46×
• Total profit: $18,209
• Equity at exit: $45,217

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.59×
• Total profit: $62,254
• Equity at exit: $58,171

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55607

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 13
• Price-to-rent: 8.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,441 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $756/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$303
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,082

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $362	-5% $323	+0% $283	+5% $243	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $169	-5% $226	+0% $283	+5% $340	+10% $397
Rate	-1.0pp $354	-0.5pp $319	base $283	+0.5pp $247	+1.0pp $210

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 128 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 125 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 124 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 123 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 122 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,900 Active 120 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 119 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,900 Active 117 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 116 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 115 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 109 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 108 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 107 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $139,900 Active 106 DOM
16. 2026-04-17
    price $139,900 1135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

    Escape to the peace and quiet of the woods with this 4-bedroom, 1-bath log home nestled on a 1-acre parcel. Surrounded by nature, this property offers the perfect blend of rustic character and everyday comfort—ideal as a year-round single-family home, weekend cabin getaway or hunting shack. Inside, you’ll find warm wood finishes and inviting living spaces that capture the true Northwoods feel. The spacious layout provides four comfortable bedrooms, offering plenty of room for family and friends. Outside, the property features a two-stall detached garage—perfect for storing vehicles, recreational toys, and outdoor equipment. With direct access to nearby snowmobile and ATV/UTV trails, adventure is always just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to recreational lakes for boating and fishing, along with endless acres of state land for hunting, hiking, and exploring. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a private retreat, this log home offers the tranquility of country living with year-round outdoor recreation right at your doorstep. Property in need of maintenance with lots of potential!

17. 2026-02-14
    listed $149,900 Active 1135-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1135 chars)

    Escape to the peace and quiet of the woods with this 4-bedroom, 1-bath log home nestled on a 1-acre parcel. Surrounded by nature, this property offers the perfect blend of rustic character and everyday comfort—ideal as a year-round single-family home, weekend cabin getaway or hunting shack. Inside, you’ll find warm wood finishes and inviting living spaces that capture the true Northwoods feel. The spacious layout provides four comfortable bedrooms, offering plenty of room for family and friends. Outside, the property features a two-stall detached garage—perfect for storing vehicles, recreational toys, and outdoor equipment. With direct access to nearby snowmobile and ATV/UTV trails, adventure is always just minutes away. Enjoy close proximity to recreational lakes for boating and fishing, along with endless acres of state land for hunting, hiking, and exploring. Whether you’re seeking a full-time residence or a private retreat, this log home offers the tranquility of country living with year-round outdoor recreation right at your doorstep. Property in need of maintenance with lots of potential!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $756 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$405/yr (+$34/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 12 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,286
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$756
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,383
• − Management: −$1,383
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $1,159
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$278
• After-tax cash flow: $3,119/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Superior Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2740740
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $51,958
• Composite: 37.51/100
• National rank: #4399
• State rank: #191 of 301 in MN

Livability — Stony River

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 213

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,943 people
• By 2030: 9,437 · -5.1%
• By 2040: 8,326 · -16.3%
• By 2050: 7,365 · -25.9%
• By 2075: 6,008 · -39.6%
• By 2100: 5,038 · -49.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Native American 3% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 51.0% · R 47.1% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.1pp · 2024: 3.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+3.9 2020: D+3.5 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+21.1 2008: D+22.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.65%
• Current HPI: 107.1689
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $139,900 LSAR
• 2026-02-14 Listed $149,900 LSAR

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $756 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.