437 Burkhalter Cir · Hagan, GA 30417

$195,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 2005 1.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you looking for Peace and affordability? This is the one. 3 Beds 2 baths situated on 1.28 Acre corner lot. Very Quiet and close to town. This home has been rented in the past for over $1500 per month. No issues to speak of. Several fruit producing trees on the property. Nice back deck to sit on and relax. Priced to sell. Professional photos coming soon.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• 1.28 acre corner lot
• Back porch

Tags

• 1.28 ACRE CORNER LOT
• FRUIT PRODUCING TREES
• METAL ROOF
• BACK PORCH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $196k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#223 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Evans County (rural): math 13% / reading 19% proficiency, ranked #153 of 174 in GA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Claxton Elementary School (math 20% / reading 13%, grade F, #968 of 1,228 statewide, top 79%, 881 students, 97% FRL); Claxton Middle School (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #392 of 470 statewide, top 84%, 379 students, 97% FRL); Claxton High School (math 2% / reading 32%, grade F, #269 of 424 statewide, top 65%, 512 students, 97% FRL) — zoned schools average 97% FRL vs 73% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 26 units permitted in Evans County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Evans County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,830 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.20%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-25,439
• Equity at exit: $29,209

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-14,308
• Equity at exit: $16,938

Cash invested: $54,852 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30417

• Home prices YoY: -11.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,588 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,027
• Tax from tax record: −$45 /mo · $543/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,461

Max offer price $195,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $211	-5% $156	+0% $101	+5% $45	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-25	-5% $38	+0% $101	+5% $163	+10% $226
Rate	-1.0pp $199	-0.5pp $150	base $101	+0.5pp $50	+1.0pp $-2

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,975
• Closing costs: $5,877
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,900 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $195,900 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,900 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,900 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,900 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,900 Active 76 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $195,900 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,900 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $195,900 Active 71 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $195,900 Active 70 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $195,900 Active 69 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $195,900 Active 68 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $195,900 Active 65 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,900 Active 64 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,900 Active 63 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,900 Active 62 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,900 Active 61 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,900 Active 60 DOM
19. 2026-03-30
    listed $199,900 New 370-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Are you looking for something quiet and something affordable. Solve both with this 3 bed 2 bath doublewide on a 1.28 Acre Corner lot. Very Quiet Neighborhood and convenient to town. No issues to speak of in this home, and has previously been used as a rental generating over $1500 per month. Several fruit producing trees are on the property. Metal roof and nice back porch to relax on. Nice home waiting on its new owners. Make an appointment today. Professional photos coming soon.

20. 2026-03-30
    listed $199,900 Active 483-char remark

    Show marketing remark (483 chars)

    Are you looking for something quiet and something affordable. Solve both with this 3 bed 2 bath doublewide on a 1.28 Acre Corner lot. Very Quiet Neighborhood and convenient to town. No issues to speak of in this home, and has previously been used as a rental generating over $1500 per month. Several fruit producing trees are on the property. Metal roof and nice back porch to relax on. Nice home waiting on its new owners. Make an appointment today. Professional photos coming soon.

21. 2026-03-27
    historical
22. 2026-02-16
    price $200,000
23. 2026-02-14
    listed $180,000 New
24. 2025-04-01
    historical
25. 2025-03-31
    historical
26. 2025-01-12
    listed $209,000 New
27. 2025-01-12
    listed $209,000
28. 2024-04-01
    soldstatus $180,000
29. 2024-03-27
    soldstatus $180,000
30. 2024-03-27
    soldstatus $180,000 Sold
31. 2024-03-13
    status Under Contract
32. 2024-03-08
    listed $184,900
33. 2024-03-04
    listed $184,900 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $543 · $45/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,802 · $150/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,259/yr (+$105/mo · 231.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 47% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,060
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,973
• − Property taxes: −$543
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − Depreciation: −$5,699
• Taxable loss: −$2,185
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$524
• After-tax cash flow: $1,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Evans County
• NCES district ID: 1302070
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 19% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $38,397
• Composite: 13.47/100
• National rank: #9520
• State rank: #153 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hagan

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #223
• US rank: #13161

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hagan, GA
• City population: 135
• Population (ZIP): 11,167

Population outlook (Evans County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,146 people
• By 2030: 9,833 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 9,202 · -9.3%
• By 2050: 8,554 · -15.7%
• By 2075: 7,123 · -29.8%
• By 2100: 5,471 · -46.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 26% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Evans

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.3) · D 28.6% · R 71.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.1pp toward R · 2008: -28.2pp · 2024: -42.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.3 2020: R+36.8 2016: R+35.4 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.98%
• Current HPI: 188.6367
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+8.1% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Listed $199,900 Hive MLS
• 2026-03-30 Listed $199,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $200,000 GAMLS
• 2026-02-14 Listed $180,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2025-01-12 Listed $209,000 Hive MLS
• 2025-01-12 Listed $209,000 GAMLS
• 2024-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $180,000 Public Records
• 2024-03-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 GAMLS
• 2024-03-27 Sold (MLS) $180,000 Hive MLS
• 2024-03-13 Pending — GAMLS
• 2024-03-08 Listed $184,900 Hive MLS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $184,900 GAMLS

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $543 · -9.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.