16483 Creekside · Mono Vista, CA 95370

$289,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,296 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 182 Days on market

Built 1976 0.61 ac lot Est $321k · 10% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.9/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Really Adorable home - very welcoming! Level entrance to deck walk way to front door--living room has large glass sliding doors to deck and views. Large parcel with garden area and borders creek. Main level has Living room with Brick Hearth and Wood stove - dining room areas to Kitchen. Kitchen has stove/oven (Electric)and Refrigerator. Large Bathroom with access to Master Bedroom on main level. Stairway to 2 more rooms and laundry area in closet. Washer/Dryer can stay - access to another deck with an area for a atrium - includes area for hot tub that used to be there. Walk down to Garden area - fenced - and creek. *New Windows + Stove + New Paint + Vinyl Siding on home. Septic Inspection is done and cleared. Property preferred to be sold in "as is" condition -priced to sell! Check this out today! Turn-key and Ready for new owners! Thank you

Key facts

• Large deck
• Atrium
• Laundry area

Tags

• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE DECK
• CREEK
• LAUNDRY AREA
• ATRIUM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community association with monthly fee of $45; Association amenities include a pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Has heating
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Built in 1976
• Construction: Wood construction; Shingle roof; Sloped down lot
• Exterior features: Deck; Side sprinklers; Community pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator; Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: One bedroom at street/main entry level
• Flooring: Linoleum; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Wood stove; Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window air conditioning unit(s)
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Main entry at street level; 1 bedroom on main entry level; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $453 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $290k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 5.0% in Mono Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#793 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime B, employment B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Curtis Creek Elementary (rural): math 29% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #278 of 517 in CA (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 301 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 182 days — a 12% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $196k; 48% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $255,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 182 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.70%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,408
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16581 S Creekside Dr	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,296 (0%)	6mo	$305,000	$235	89
16521 Sallander Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,395 (+8%)	14mo	$355,950	$255	73
16537 Creekside Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,328 (+2%)	11mo	$325,000	$245	70
16652 Sallander	0.29mi	3/1.5	1,482 (+14%)	1mo	$310,000	$209	60
21881 Phoenix Lake Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+8%)	2mo	$360,000	$257	58
16925 American River Dr. West	0.55mi	3/3.0	1,388 (+7%)	3mo	$369,900	$266	56
21338 Crystal Fls	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,409 (+9%)	8mo	$220,000	$156	54
21407 Crystal Falls Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-12%)	0mo	$320,000	$281	54
21517 Crystal Falls Dr	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,366 (+5%)	9mo	$314,000	$230	53
21931 Glenwood Rd	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+9%)	1mo	$351,000	$248	53
21273 Crestview Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+14%)	7mo	$337,000	$228	46
16986 Oaktree Ln	0.75mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,296 (0%)	12mo	$325,000	$251	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-18,151
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $21,238
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95370

• Active inventory: 301
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$191 /mo · $2,286/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$620
• Net cashflow: $453

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,376

Max offer price $289,999

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $618	-5% $535	+0% $453	+5% $371	+10% $289
Rent	-10% $220	-5% $337	+0% $453	+5% $570	+10% $686
Rate	-1.0pp $599	-0.5pp $527	base $453	+0.5pp $378	+1.0pp $302

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21593 Crystal Falls Dr Sonora, CA	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,950	$2.36	24d	1	0.60mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,999 Active 182 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,999 Active 180 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,999 Active 179 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,999 Active 178 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,999 Active 177 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,999 Active 176 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,999 Active 174 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,999 Active 173 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $289,999 Active 171 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,999 Active 170 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,999 Active 169 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,999 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,999 Active 166 DOM
14. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,999 Active 165 DOM
15. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,999 Active 164 DOM
16. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,999 Active 163 DOM
17. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,999 Active 162 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,999 Active 161 DOM
19. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,999 Active 160 DOM
20. 2026-01-31
    price $289,999
21. 2026-01-31
    price $289,900
22. 2025-12-21
    listed $299,000 Active
23. 2017-12-26
    soldstatus $195,500 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Really Adorable home - very welcoming! Level entrance to deck walk way to front door--living room has large glass sliding doors to deck and views. Large parcel with garden area and borders creek. Main level has Living room with Brick Hearth and Wood stove - dining room areas to Kitchen. Kitchen has stove/oven (Electric)and Refrigerator. Large Bathroom with access to Master Bedroom on main level. Stairway to 2 more rooms and laundry area in closet. Washer/Dryer can stay - access to another deck with an area for a atrium - includes area for hot tub that used to be there. Walk down to Garden area - fenced - and creek. *New Windows + Stove + New Paint + Vinyl Siding on home. Septic Inspection is done and cleared. Property preferred to be sold in "as is" condition -priced to sell! Check this out today! Turn-key and Ready for new owners! Thank you

24. 2017-12-26
    soldstatus $198,500

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Really Adorable home - very welcoming! Level entrance to deck walk way to front door--living room has large glass sliding doors to deck and views. Large parcel with garden area and borders creek. Main level has Living room with Brick Hearth and Wood stove - dining room areas to Kitchen. Kitchen has stove/oven (Electric)and Refrigerator. Large Bathroom with access to Master Bedroom on main level. Stairway to 2 more rooms and laundry area in closet. Washer/Dryer can stay - access to another deck with an area for a atrium - includes area for hot tub that used to be there. Walk down to Garden area - fenced - and creek. *New Windows + Stove + New Paint + Vinyl Siding on home. Septic Inspection is done and cleared. Property preferred to be sold in "as is" condition -priced to sell! Check this out today! Turn-key and Ready for new owners! Thank you

25. 2017-11-02
    listed $189,000 863-char remark

    Show marketing remark (863 chars)

    Really Adorable home - very welcoming! Level entrance to deck walk way to front door--living room has large glass sliding doors to deck and views. Large parcel with garden area and borders creek. Main level has Living room with Brick Hearth and Wood stove - dining room areas to Kitchen. Kitchen has stove/oven (Electric)and Refrigerator. Large Bathroom with access to Master Bedroom on main level. Stairway to 2 more rooms and laundry area in closet. Washer/Dryer can stay - access to another deck with an area for a atrium - includes area for hot tub that used to be there. Walk down to Garden area - fenced - and creek. *New Windows + Stove + New Paint + Vinyl Siding on home. Septic Inspection is done and cleared. Property preferred to be sold in "as is" condition -priced to sell! Check this out today! Turn-key and Ready for new owners! Thank you

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,286 · $191/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,286 · $191/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 74% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 29 unhealthy d/yr today · 33 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,244
• − Property taxes: −$2,286
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,832
• − Management: −$2,832
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable income: $779
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $5,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Curtis Creek Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0610320
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $54,986
• Composite: 29.96/100
• National rank: #6372
• State rank: #278 of 517 in CA

Livability — Mono Vista

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #793
• US rank: #22675

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mono Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 28,373

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Russian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -322.67%
• Current HPI: 130.9637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+53.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $289,999 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $289,900 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2025-12-21 Listed $299,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-12-26 Sold (Public Records) $198,500 Public Records
• 2017-12-26 Sold (MLS) $195,500 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2017-11-02 Listed $189,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR

Property tax history

+7.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,286 · +1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.