1515 Capalina Rd #7 · San Marcos, CA 92069

$164,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 940 sqft · Manufactured public records · 47 Days on market

Built 1963 1,200 sqft lot $175/sqft · 13% below area Est $180k · 9% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.4/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

Key facts

• Dual sinks
• Corner-lot home
• New glass slider

Tags

• CORNER-LOT HOME
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• DUAL-PANE WINDOWS
• NEW GLASS SLIDER
• UPDATED FIXTURES
• DUAL SINKS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Manager approval required; Pets allowed with size, breed, and number restrictions
• Financial info: Land lease applies ($890)
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee managed by park manager; Senior community; Suburban community

Exterior

• Parking: Two parking spaces; Two carport spaces; Located in the El Dorado park
• Utilities: Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story mobile home; Double-wide body type; Mobile home remains on site; Mobile home approximately 19 ft by 47 ft; Entry on level 1
• Construction: Steel construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Community pool access; Aluminum skirting; One shed on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Free-standing range; Garbage disposal; Water heater unit
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms located on the main level
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring; Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: Full bathroom with bathtub and separate shower
• Heating & cooling: Forced-air heating; Central cooling
• Interior features: One-level home; Spa on property; All bedrooms on the same level
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Gas dryer hookup; Outdoor laundry access

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $164k).
• Recommended offer: $160k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.0% vs local median 2.5% in San Marcos — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#80 in CA, #3,074 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety D+, cost of living F.
• San Marcos Unified (suburban): math 52% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #249 of 1,400 in CA (top 18%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 115 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 11,759 units permitted in San Diego County in 2024 (7,244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($97k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Diego County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 47 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $115k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $159,565 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 47 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1963 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.90% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.60%
• DSCR: 2.54
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,000
• List price: $164,500
• Delta: -8.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1515 Capalina Rd #42	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	4mo	$180,000	$188	89
1515 Capalina Rd #71	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	7mo	$100,000	$104	87
1515 Capalina Rd #72	0.00mi	2/2.0	960 (+2%)	21mo	$194,500	$203	75
1515 Capalina Rd Spc 89	0.00mi	2/2.0	880 (-6%)	23mo	$197,500	$224	66
1515 Capalina Rd Spc 10	0.04mi	2/1.0	818 (-13%)	18mo	$65,000	$79	62
155 Las Flores Dr #36	0.53mi	2/2.0	800 (-15%)	24mo	$309,000	$386	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.55% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $50,473
• Equity at exit: $24,527

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.69×
• Total profit: $123,732
• Equity at exit: $14,223

Cash invested: $46,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92069

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,120 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$863
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,468/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $1,328

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,439

Max offer price $164,500

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,125
• Closing costs: $4,935
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1635 Creek St San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	2.0	1047	$3,450	$3.29	14d	3	0.45mi
1257 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	1189	$4,330	$3.64	1d	24	0.47mi
1045 Armorlite Dr San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0–3.0	902	$3,398	$3.77	1d	16	0.62mi
420 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	896	$2,445	$2.73	2d	3	0.73mi
3834 La Rosa Dr Unit A San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	1014	$4,200	$4.14	43d	1	0.76mi
3815 La Rosa Dr San Marcos, CA	3.0	1.0	1014	$3,700	$3.65	12d	1	0.80mi
300 Smilax Rd Unit 11 San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.87mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	43d	1	0.88mi
320 Smilax Rd San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	875	$2,675	$3.06	24d	1	0.88mi
221 Smilax Rd Vista, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	855	$2,799	$3.27	2d	8	0.98mi
3919 Las Cruces Ave San Marcos, CA	3.0	2.0	1100	$3,200	$2.91	4d	1	1.02mi
1643 Rue de Valle San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1086	$3,222	$2.97	17d	1	1.11mi
603 Beverly Pl San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.5	1068	$3,150	$2.95	43d	1	1.16mi
592 Los Vallecitos Blvd San Marcos, CA	2.0	2.0	936	$2,600	$2.78	43d	1	1.24mi
1241 W San Marcos Blvd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	883	$2,400	$2.72	43d	1	1.27mi
245 Knoll Rd San Marcos, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$2,550	$3.19	23d	1	1.31mi
532 Richmar Ave Unit C San Marcos, CA	2.0	1.0	812	$2,395	$2.95	43d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 34 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $164,500 Active 47 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $164,500 Active 46 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $164,500 Active 45 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $164,500 Active 44 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,500 Active 42 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,500 Active 38 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $164,500 Active 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $169,000 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $169,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,000 Active 30 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,000 Active 29 DOM
14. 2026-05-02
    listed $169,000 Active 707-char remark
15. 2023-02-27
    soldstatus $114,900 Sold 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

16. 2023-01-19
    status Pending 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

17. 2023-01-18
    price $119,900 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

18. 2023-01-17
    status Back On Market 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

19. 2023-01-13
    status Pending 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

20. 2022-12-21
    listed $114,900 Active 650-char remark

    Show marketing remark (650 chars)

    Back on the market pending cancellation of current escrow, Affordable Senior Park Living. 2 Bed 1 Bath 940 Square foot home. This home has many updates. Beautiful Laminate flooring throughout most of the home. Master bedroom has a large walk in closet and well sized bathroom. The French doors in living room lead to a Large front porch with great outdoor entertainment area. This lot has a Private yard for gardening or for your pet. Carport has reasonable sized shed at the back of the driveway. This park is centrally located that gives easy access to the colleges, stores, shops & medical offices. Public transportation is available nearby.

21. 2007-09-12
    historical
22. 2007-09-12
    historical
23. 2007-08-08
    price $45,500
24. 2007-07-26
    price $46,500
25. 2007-07-12
    price $47,500
26. 2007-07-01
    price $48,500
27. 2007-06-29
    price $49,500
28. 2007-06-19
    price $53,000
29. 2007-06-15
    price $49,500
30. 2007-06-03
    price $53,000
31. 2007-05-21
    price $54,000
32. 2007-05-08
    price $55,000
33. 2006-09-12
    listed $45,500
34. 2006-09-12
    listed $45,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,215
• − Property taxes: −$2,468
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,995
• − Management: −$2,995
• − Depreciation: −$4,785
• Taxable income: $14,162
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,399
• After-tax cash flow: $12,539/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Marcos Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634880
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $64,752
• Composite: 53.67/100
• National rank: #3093
• State rank: #249 of 1400 in CA

Livability — San Marcos

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #3074

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A- Employment A+ Housing B Health & safety D+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: San Marcos, CA
• County: San Diego County · 3,178,799 people
• City population: 100,940
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,335
• Household income: $96,771
• Rent vs Own: 43.9% rent · 56.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2399.0

Population outlook (San Diego County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 3,678,185 people
• By 2030: 3,856,546 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 4,171,407 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 4,421,607 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 4,831,599 · +31.4%
• By 2100: 4,832,502 · +31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 46% White 36% Two or more races 20% Asian 11% Native American 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 32% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · San Diego

• 2024 margin: D (+16.8) · D 56.9% · R 40.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.6pp toward D · 2008: 10.2pp · 2024: 16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.8 2020: D+22.8 2016: D+17.8 2012: D+5.1 2008: D+10.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -522.69%
• Current HPI: 376.182
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.55%
• Metro: San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+261.5% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Price Changed $164,500 CRMLS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $169,000 CRMLS
• 2023-02-27 Sold (MLS) $114,900 SDMLS
• 2023-01-19 Pending — SDMLS
• 2023-01-18 Price Changed $119,900 SDMLS
• 2023-01-17 Relisted — SDMLS
• 2023-01-13 Pending — SDMLS
• 2022-12-21 Listed $114,900 SDMLS
• 2007-09-12 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2007-09-12 Listing Removed — SDMLS
• 2007-08-08 Price Changed $45,500 SDMLS
• 2007-07-26 Price Changed $46,500 SDMLS
• 2007-07-12 Price Changed $47,500 SDMLS
• 2007-07-01 Price Changed $48,500 SDMLS
• 2007-06-29 Price Changed $49,500 SDMLS
• 2007-06-19 Price Changed $53,000 SDMLS
• 2007-06-15 Price Changed $49,500 SDMLS
• 2007-06-03 Price Changed $53,000 SDMLS
• 2007-05-21 Price Changed $54,000 SDMLS
• 2007-05-08 Price Changed $55,000 SDMLS
• 2006-09-12 Listed $45,500 CRMLS
• 2006-09-12 Listed $45,500 SDMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2013): $215 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.