1013 Roughlock Ln · Spearfish, SD 57783

$73,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1995 Est $90k · 19% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Private bath
• Open-concept layout

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATH
• PEACEFUL COMMUNITY LIVING
• WELCOMING NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Pets allowed

Exterior

• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Home design: Manufactured home; Residential property
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Electric oven; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 3 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Smoke detector(s)
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $73k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($14k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $73k).
• Recommended offer: $72k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.0% vs local median 2.2% in Spearfish — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in SD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, schools B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Spearfish School District 40-2 (town): math 45% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #32 of 59 in SD (top 54%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 288 active listings in the ZIP; 217 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $505 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($72k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $71,905 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 24.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 66.74%
• DSCR: 3.97
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $89,984
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1237 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$85,000	$70	91
1138 Crow Peak Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	2mo	$63,000	$52	88
1111 Elkhorn Peak Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$85,000	$70	88
1205 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	3mo	$65,000	$53	87
1124 Crow Peak Ln	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	8mo	$90,000	$74	85
1306 Foothills Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	14mo	$110,000	$90	81
1308 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.05mi	3/2.0	1,216 (0%)	16mo	$105,000	$86	80
1223 Terry Peak Ln	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,296 (+7%)	9mo	$97,000	$75	69
1208 Foothills Dr	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+5%)	14mo	$95,000	$74	67
1019 Roughlock Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,368 (+12%)	11mo	$148,950	$109	64
1107 Crow Peak Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+10%)	22mo	$139,000	$103	56
1109 Spearfish Mountain Ln	0.17mi	3/1.5	1,050 (-14%)	17mo	$65,000	$62	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 66.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.96×
• Total profit: $60,568
• Equity at exit: $10,885

10-year hold

• IRR: 70.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.14×
• Total profit: $145,961
• Equity at exit: $6,312

Cash invested: $20,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Dakota: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; mostly landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 57783

• Active inventory: 288
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$383
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $474/yr
• Insurance: −$30
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $1,137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $573

Max offer price $73,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,178	-5% $1,157	+0% $1,137	+5% $1,116	+10% $1,095
Rent	-10% $978	-5% $1,057	+0% $1,137	+5% $1,216	+10% $1,296
Rate	-1.0pp $1,173	-0.5pp $1,155	base $1,137	+0.5pp $1,118	+1.0pp $1,099

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,250
• Closing costs: $2,190
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $73,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $73,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $73,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   price $73,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 19 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $75,000 Active 16 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $75,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $75,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $75,000 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $75,000 Active 8 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 3 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 2 DOM
18. 2026-05-28
    listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SD · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $474 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $956 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$483/yr (+$40/mo · 101.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,143
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,089
• − Property taxes: −$474
• − Insurance: −$365
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,931
• − Management: −$1,931
• − Depreciation: −$2,124
• Taxable income: $13,229
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,175
• After-tax cash flow: $10,466/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Spearfish School District 40-2
• NCES district ID: 4666930
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,524
• Composite: 42.54/100
• National rank: #3199
• State rank: #32 of 59 in SD

Livability — Spearfish

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9525

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment C+ Housing A- Health & safety B- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Spearfish, SD
• County: Lawrence County · 17,248 people
• City population: 17,248
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• Population (ZIP): 17,248
• Household income: $74,844
• Rent vs Own: 41.4% rent · 58.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 580.0

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,092 people
• By 2030: 28,137 · +3.9%
• By 2040: 29,908 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 31,789 · +17.3%
• By 2075: 38,917 · +43.6%
• By 2100: 50,407 · +86.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 12% Iranian 3% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.3) · D 32.9% · R 64.3% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: -15.4pp · 2024: -31.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.3 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.2 2012: R+26.9 2008: R+15.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -174.59%
• Current HPI: 206.2001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Spearfish, SD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 0.70%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities	1	$1B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $75,000 MRAOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $474 · -20.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.