129 Ervin Ln · Triana, AL 35758

$207,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 2009 0.47 ac lot Est $205k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled in a serene area, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort and space both inside and out. Enjoy a generously sized yard that is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gardening. Minutes away from the airport, I-565, shopping, and eateries. Schedule a private showing with your favorite realtor today!

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 2009
• Listed 23 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot includes front and back yard; Lot dimensions approximately 210 x 105 (0.47 acres); Zoning: H1

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Shingle roof; 1,176 above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Front porch; Rear porch; Shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $207k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $154 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.0% in Triana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#125 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Madison County (rural): math 27% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #19 of 129 in AL (top 15%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 382 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 4,709 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (1,186 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $22k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Madison County population projected at +18% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 1.6% rent growth), your $58k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($204k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $179k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,841 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.18%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $204,624
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
129 Ervin Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (0%)	10mo	$178,900	$152	83
130 Bertha Dr	0.60mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,200 (+2%)	8mo	$209,000	$174	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 1.58% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $119,931
• Equity at exit: $186,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.87×
• Total profit: $340,499
• Equity at exit: $402,155

Cash invested: $57,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35758

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 382
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,788 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,086
• Tax from tax record: −$87 /mo · $1,048/yr
• Insurance: −$86
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $154

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $207,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $51,750
• Closing costs: $6,210
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
122 Daymark Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1484	$1,795	$1.21	43d	1	0.49mi
122 David Barnes Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1324	$1,535	$1.16	14d	1	0.61mi
133 Pitts Griffin Dr Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,900	$1.39	14d	1	0.62mi
808 Willow Shoals Dr SW Madison, AL	3.0	2.0	1435	$1,700	$1.18	23d	1	0.73mi
418 Falls Pt SW Madison, AL	3.0	3.0	1329	$1,595	$1.20	14d	1	1.29mi
344 Falling Water Ln SW Madison, AL	3.0	3.0	1290	$1,545	$1.20	14d	1	1.31mi
30 E Revere Blvd Madison, AL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1163	$1,659	$1.43	14d	13	1.45mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $207,000 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $207,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $207,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $207,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $207,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $207,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $207,000 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $207,000 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $207,000 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $207,000 Active 12 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $207,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $207,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $207,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $207,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $207,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-23
    listed $207,000 Active
17. 2025-09-08
    soldstatus $178,900
18. 2025-09-05
    soldstatus $178,900 Sold 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Nestled in a serene area, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort and space both inside and out. Enjoy a generously sized yard that is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gardening. Minutes away from the airport, I-565, shopping, and eateries. Schedule a private showing with your favorite realtor today!

19. 2025-08-10
    historical 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Nestled in a serene area, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort and space both inside and out. Enjoy a generously sized yard that is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gardening. Minutes away from the airport, I-565, shopping, and eateries. Schedule a private showing with your favorite realtor today!

20. 2025-07-22
    listed $179,900 Active 320-char remark

    Show marketing remark (320 chars)

    Nestled in a serene area, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath home offers comfort and space both inside and out. Enjoy a generously sized yard that is perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or gardening. Minutes away from the airport, I-565, shopping, and eateries. Schedule a private showing with your favorite realtor today!

21. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus $145,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,048 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,595
• − Property taxes: −$1,048
• − Insurance: −$1,035
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,717
• − Management: −$1,717
• − Depreciation: −$6,022
• Taxable loss: −$1,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$401
• After-tax cash flow: $2,246/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 0102220
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -32.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $66,058
• Composite: 37.15/100
• National rank: #4483
• State rank: #19 of 129 in AL

Livability — Triana

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #125
• US rank: #12792

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Triana, AL
• County: Madison County · 380,832 people
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• Population (ZIP): 50,266
• Household income: $117,380
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 875.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 392,086 people
• By 2030: 409,788 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 440,557 · +12.4%
• By 2050: 460,990 · +17.6%
• By 2075: 502,872 · +28.3%
• By 2100: 513,623 · +31.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 14% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 44.7% · R 53.7% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.0pp toward D · 2008: -14.9pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+8.0 2016: R+16.8 2012: R+18.7 2008: R+14.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 14.46%
• Current HPI: 355.2784
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.58%
• Metro: Huntsville, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $207,000 SAARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Sold (Public Records) $178,900 Public Records
• 2025-09-05 Sold (MLS) $178,900 VMLS
• 2025-08-10 Delisted — VMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listed $179,900 VMLS
• 2023-03-20 Sold (Public Records) $145,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+14.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,048 · +138.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.