307 N 3rd St · Sierra Vista, AZ 85635

$70,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 922 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2002 8,616 sqft lot ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Fix up single family home - garage converted to Huge 3rd Bedroom - perfect for flip or handyman owner

Key facts

• Garage converted
• Huge 3rd bedroom
• 8,616 sq ft lot

Tags

• GARAGE CONVERTED
• HUGE 3RD BEDROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: East/West exposure; Dirt front yard; Dirt backyard; Chain link fencing; City-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump (heating and cooling)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $580 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Cap rate 16.2% vs local median 4.3% in Sierra Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#5 in AZ, #1,805 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) (urban): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #93 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Carmichael Elementary School (math 12% / reading 22%, grade F, #814 of 1,109 statewide, top 76%, 299 students, 75% FRL); Buena High School (math 19% / reading 29%, grade F, #202 of 381 statewide, top 54%, 1,836 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 36% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Sierra Vista Unified District (4175) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 176 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 437 units permitted in Cochise County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cochise County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 35.53%
• DSCR: 2.58
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $167,804
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 N 3rd St	0.00mi	3/1.0	922 (0%)	1mo	$71,000	$77	100
42 Peterson St	0.35mi	3/1.0	850 (-8%)	5mo	$172,500	$203	67
116 Wolfe St	0.39mi	3/1.0	850 (-8%)	3mo	$110,000	$129	66
180 Wolfe St	0.44mi	3/1.0	970 (+5%)	9mo	$185,000	$191	63
117 Keating St	0.42mi	2/1.0 (-1)	936 (+2%)	13mo	$165,000	$176	62
59 Peterson St	0.35mi	3/1.0	850 (-8%)	14mo	$125,000	$147	59
133 Sherbundy St	0.42mi	3/1.0	850 (-8%)	13mo	$103,500	$122	57
26 Peterson St	0.33mi	3/1.0	850 (-8%)	18mo	$177,000	$208	57
760 Four Winds Cir	0.20mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,051 (+14%)	4mo	$200,245	$191	55
970 Cottonwood Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,034 (+12%)	4mo	$219,500	$212	55
206 N 6th St	0.18mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,057 (+15%)	9mo	$140,000	$132	53
1047 Acacia Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,046 (+13%)	11mo	$190,000	$182	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $21,783
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 33.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.64×
• Total profit: $51,730
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85635

• Home prices YoY: -32.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 176
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,311 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $708/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$275
• Net cashflow: $580

Break-even live

Break-even rent $576

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $620	-5% $600	+0% $580	+5% $561	+10% $541
Rent	-10% $477	-5% $529	+0% $580	+5% $632	+10% $684
Rate	-1.0pp $616	-0.5pp $598	base $580	+0.5pp $562	+1.0pp $544

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
600 Charles Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$1,589	$2.49	2d	15	0.15mi
355 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	600	$965	$1.61	2d	9	0.30mi
555 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	521	$919	$1.76	44d	1	0.32mi
1125 N 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1000	$1,391	$1.39	3d	1	0.41mi
540 North Ave Unit A Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	1.0	800	$950	$1.19	44d	1	0.49mi
557 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	1.0	678	$900	$1.33	44d	1	0.51mi
1205 Cottonwood Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,400	$1.33	45d	1	0.53mi
604 Graham Dr Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.54mi
270 W Tacoma St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1120	$995	$0.89	44d	1	0.62mi
800 N Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	1050	$1,070	$1.02	44d	1	0.74mi
499 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0–4.0	2.0	1163	$1,675	$1.44	2d	5	0.74mi
420 Camino Mojado Sierra Vista, AZ	2.0	2.0	1120	$1,300	$1.16	44d	1	0.74mi
500 S 7th St Sierra Vista, AZ	3.0	2.0	924	$999	$1.08	44d	1	0.83mi
409 S Lenzner Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	793	$1,695	$2.14	44d	23	1.09mi
800 S Carmichael Ave Sierra Vista, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	637	$965	$1.51	2d	16	1.19mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-17
   listed $70,000 Active
3. 2003-01-06
   soldstatus $73,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $708 · $59/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,731
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$708
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,258
• − Management: −$1,258
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $6,199
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,488
• After-tax cash flow: $5,477/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sierra Vista Unified District (4175)
• NCES district ID: 0401460
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,463
• Composite: 29.17/100
• National rank: #6573
• State rank: #93 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Sierra Vista

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #1805

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sierra Vista, AZ
• County: Cochise County · 49,069 people
• City population: 49,069
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 34,193
• Household income: $61,580
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1129.0

Population outlook (Cochise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,402 people
• By 2030: 106,197 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 92,166 · -18.7%
• By 2050: 79,805 · -29.6%
• By 2075: 56,831 · -49.9%
• By 2100: 35,103 · -69.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 17% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 14% Korean 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cochise

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 37.8% · R 61.0% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.5pp toward R · 2008: -20.7pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+22.6 2012: R+24.0 2008: R+20.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.93%
• Current HPI: 175.5821
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.00%
• Metro: Sierra Vista-Douglas, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — ARMLS
• 2026-05-17 Listed $70,000 ARMLS
• 2003-01-06 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $708 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.