7844 Gilford Rd · Fairgrove, MI 48757

$69,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 912 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1957 1.00 ac lot Est $125k · 45% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

NEW PRICE!! KEYS AT CLOSING on this Ranch home on 1 acre, nice country setting, in Reese School District. Good well water & house has natural gas. The updates include fresh paint throughout, water heater, plumbing, sump pump & wood stove. Other newer items: furnace, vinyl windows, vinyl siding, shingles, 1/2 bath & family room in basement. Attached garage & shed. Seller related to agent.

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1957

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1 acre; Below-grade area listed (912) — unfinished

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with 1 parking space
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic sewer; Natural gas; Electric service (standard)
• Home design: Residential, single-story layout; Built in 1957; Basement foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding exterior; Basement foundation; 1-story structure; Year built: 1957
• Exterior features: Vinyl siding; Shed on property; Road frontage (88 feet)

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on first level — approx. 13 x 12, laminate flooring; Dining room on first level — approx. 13 x 10, laminate flooring
• Bedrooms: Bedroom 1 (first level) — approx. 12 x 9, wood flooring; Bedroom 2 (first level) — approx. 10 x 9, wood flooring; Bedroom 3 (first level) — approx. 10 (width listed), wood flooring
• Flooring: Wood flooring in living room and bedrooms; Laminate flooring in kitchen and dining room
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 2 total baths/lavatories; Lavatory located in basement
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Natural gas fuel; Gas water heater
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Full, unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Basement provides utility/laundry space

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $379 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#639 in MI) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Reese Public Schools (rural): math 38% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #164 of 540 in MI (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 14 active listings in the ZIP; 56 units permitted in Tuscola County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscola County population projected at -29% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 10y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $21k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1957 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1957 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.56%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,944
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7980 W Gilford Rd	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	915 (+0%)	5mo	$125,000	$137	76

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $12,961
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $42,322
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48757

• Home prices YoY: -25.6%
• Active inventory: 14
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,015 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $380/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $379

Break-even live

Break-even rent $535

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 58%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   price $69,000
3. 2026-03-10
   listed $90,000 Active
4. 2018-03-28
   soldstatus $66,850
5. 2018-03-02
   soldstatus $66,850 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   NEW PRICE!! KEYS AT CLOSING on this Ranch home on 1 acre, nice country setting, in Reese School District. Good well water & house has natural gas. The updates include fresh paint throughout, water heater, plumbing, sump pump & wood stove. Other newer items: furnace, vinyl windows, vinyl siding, shingles, 1/2 bath & family room in basement. Attached garage & shed. Seller related to agent.

6. 2017-11-16
   historical
7. 2017-11-16
   historical
8. 2017-11-15
   listed $64,900 414-char remark

   Show marketing remark (414 chars)

   NEW PRICE!! KEYS AT CLOSING on this Ranch home on 1 acre, nice country setting, in Reese School District. Good well water & house has natural gas. The updates include fresh paint throughout, water heater, plumbing, sump pump & wood stove. Other newer items: furnace, vinyl windows, vinyl siding, shingles, 1/2 bath & family room in basement. Attached garage & shed. Seller related to agent.

9. 2017-11-13
   listed $69,900 Active
10. 2017-11-12
    listed $69,900
11. 2016-07-31
    price $39,999
12. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus $33,000 Sold
13. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus $33,000 Closed
14. 2016-07-29
    soldstatus $33,000
15. 2016-07-08
    status Pending
16. 2016-06-07
    price $39,999
17. 2016-05-11
    historical
18. 2016-05-11
    price $45,000
19. 2016-05-11
    price $45,000
20. 2016-04-22
    listed $56,000 Active
21. 2016-03-10
    listed $56,000 Active
22. 2016-03-09
    listed $39,999
23. 2001-06-16
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $721 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: +$341/yr (+$28/mo · 89.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,176
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$380
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$974
• − Management: −$974
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $3,631
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$871
• After-tax cash flow: $3,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Reese Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2629520
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $47,888
• Composite: 37.16/100
• National rank: #4481
• State rank: #164 of 540 in MI

Livability — Fairgrove

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #639
• US rank: #21640

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 3,680

Population outlook (Tuscola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,930 people
• By 2030: 47,294 · -5.3%
• By 2040: 41,504 · -16.9%
• By 2050: 35,560 · -28.8%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -51.0%
• By 2100: 16,507 · -66.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Lithuanian 5% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscola

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.0) · D 27.9% · R 70.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -42.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.8pp · 2024: -43.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.0 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+38.0 2012: R+10.8 2008: R+0.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -73.05%
• Current HPI: 211.8754
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+15.0% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $69,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $90,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2018-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $66,850 Public Records
• 2018-03-02 Sold (MLS) $66,850 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-16 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-16 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2017-11-15 Listed $64,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-13 Listed $69,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2017-11-12 Listed $69,900 REALCOMP
• 2016-07-31 Price Changed $39,999 REALCOMP
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-07-29 Sold (MLS) $33,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-07-08 Pending — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-06-07 Price Changed $39,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-05-11 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2016-05-11 Price Changed $45,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-05-11 Price Changed $45,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-04-22 Listed $56,000 REALCOMP
• 2016-03-10 Listed $56,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2016-03-09 Listed $39,999 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2001-06-16 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $380 · -61.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.