521 Wayne 523 · Wappapello, MO 63966

$48,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,980 sqft · Manufactured · 1 Days on market

Built 1986 Fair condition 2.90 ac lot Est $48k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +6.6/15.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Key facts

• 2.9 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1986

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $48k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $48k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Greenville R-II (rural): math 34% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #228 of 324 in MO (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($335 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (6.2% local appreciation)).
• Wayne County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (6.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $48,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.70%
• DSCR: 2.86
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $47,520
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
521 Wayne 523	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,980 (0%)	1mo	$48,500	$24	99

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.18% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 46.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $40,396
• Equity at exit: $31,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.1%
• Equity multiple: 8.26×
• Total profit: $98,582
• Equity at exit: $56,757

Cash invested: $13,580 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63966

• Home prices YoY: 3.5%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,022 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$254
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$61 /mo · $728/yr
• Insurance: −$20
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$215
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $508

Max offer price $48,500

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,125
• Closing costs: $1,455
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $48,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,260
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,717
• − Property taxes: −$728
• − Insurance: −$1,040
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$981
• − Management: −$981
• − Depreciation: −$1,411
• Taxable income: $4,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,057
• After-tax cash flow: $3,809/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 8 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires significant repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, siding, and HVAC system, as well as landscaping improvements. These updates will significantly increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant damage and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling and chipping paint, indicating significant wear.
• Major interior walls — Peeling paint and outdated appearance.
• Major HVAC system — Old and may need replacement.
• Major landscaping — Sparse and overgrown, reducing curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint the exterior siding and interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value.
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers.
• Both Landscaping and tree trimming — A well-maintained yard will increase the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant damage and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling and chipping paint, indicating significant wear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · Peeling paint and outdated appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC system · Old and may need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Sparse and overgrown, reducing curb appeal.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint the exterior siding and interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's appearance and increase its value. ↑
• Both Replace the HVAC system — A new HVAC system will improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping and tree trimming — A well-maintained yard will increase the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers/renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greenville R-II
• NCES district ID: 2913380
• Math proficiency: 34% ▲ 8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $32,394
• Composite: 29.08/100
• National rank: #6599
• State rank: #228 of 324 in MO

Livability — Wappapello

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,183

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,005 people
• By 2030: 12,767 · -1.8%
• By 2040: 12,319 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 11,828 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 10,806 · -16.9%
• By 2100: 9,610 · -26.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 13%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+72.6) · D 13.4% · R 86.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -47.6pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -72.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+72.6 2020: R+70.5 2016: R+64.4 2012: R+34.6 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.18%
• Current HPI: 180.2321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $48,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid